Absolute Vorticity

Thing is those percentages are for the state combined. Where the D3/4 are it’s 0-10% . With no end in sight, it wouldn’t surprise me to see the state declare a few counties in central and SE Ohio disaster areas

What a great forecast by Brian. Les I believe he has been peeking at our forum lol. The most interesting item he mentioned was a little wave in the middle of the week. We may be too far north but if you are on the northern side of a small system like this and we are talking early September you can have a day that stays in the 60's for highs. The sun angle is the same as early April. He does mentioned several cold fronts that may occur in September and I agree with the way the pattern is shaping up and he mentioned maybe an early frost and I don't yet and we know it takes more than just cold air but also decent vegetation because a dry ground has problems with forming frost. So yes I do believe some decent shots of cool air in September and early October but late Oct into November may give us another round of milder air and I will leave it at that for the moment because we know many other factors involved.

Not sure what Brian’s reasoning is too expect a frost fo the OV in September, but atm looking at 500mb forecast in the extended, we would need a major shuffling for that type of cold to reach the OV(cvg). Looks like pretty normal cool shots to me , deep into September

84 / 69 at CVG as of the 11am reading. We are running a couple of degrees behind yesterday at this time. Still nasty anyway you slice it though. I think an earlier then normal frost would be in the first half of October. Our normal using CVG is mid to late October. The record earliest is Sept 28th.


https://www.weather.gov/iln/fallfrostfreeze

90 as of 1pm at CVG. Hopefully tomorrow will be the end of it for a while anyway.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Aug 29, 2024 11:02 am Not sure what Brian’s reasoning is too expect a frost fo the OV in September, but atm looking at 500mb forecast in the extended, we would need a major shuffling for that type of cold to reach the OV(cvg). Looks like pretty normal cool shots to me , deep into September

Based on what I can remember most Frost occurs in October and November I will tried to document when I see my first frost for this season in here

95 here and at CVG today. You can see where the boundary is today west / SW of Cincy where scattered convection has fired on radar. It's not moving much either so localized heavy rain is likely like yesterday.

No rain here atm, just a little thunder but my temp dropped to 84 (CVG 86 as of 5pm) I assume due to an outflow boundary from those nearby storms.

Wow! LOU hit 102 today, the hottest temp since July of 2012.

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1036 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024

...A MICROBURST WITH STRAIGHT-LINE WIND DAMAGE HAS BEEN CONFIRMED
NEAR ALEXANDRIA IN CAMPBELL COUNTY, KENTUCKY...

The National Weather Service in Wilmington, Ohio has determined
that a microburst occurred near Alexandria in Campbell County,
Kentucky during the late afternoon of August 28, 2024. Based on
radar information, the microburst occurred at approximately 5:39
PM EDT.

An analysis of KILN (Wilmington, Ohio) radar data, and even more
importantly the TCVG FAA Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR)
near Walton, Kentucky both depict an outflow-dominant
thunderstorm that was lacking the inflow, convergence, and
rotation necessary for tornado development. Instead, both radars
show a rapid increase of divergent surface winds near Alexandria
that are seen with thunderstorms producing downburst winds. In
particular, the FAA TDWR shows a brief but rapid enhancement of
divergent surface winds near the AA Highway, Backus Road, and
Viewpoint Drive, adding confidence of an enhanced microburst at
this location within a longer period of more moderate downburst
thunderstorm winds.

With a lack of wind shear, as was the case in this event, the
thunderstorm updraft tends to "suffocate" and collapses back upon
itself leading to a microburst. The mass of rain and cold air at
the top of the updraft collapse downward, gaining velocity as it
does so. In addition, the environment across northern Kentucky on
Wednesday afternoon was an optimal environment for localized
microbursts, void of the low and deep layer wind shear needed for
tornado development.

Wind damage was reported along Backus Drive and the AA Highway
near Alexandria. Along Backus Drive, several trees were knocked
down and some of the trees were reported to have fallen on some
of the homes. Several trees were also knocked down along the AA
Highway. The National Weather Service received and evaluated
photos of the damage on Backus Drive. Based on the damage, winds
associated with this microburst were estimated to be 60-70 mph.
The National Weather Service would like to thank Campbell County,
Kentucky Emergency Management for their coordination and
assistance with this determination.

1814 UNK 5 W Sadieville Scott KY 3840 8463 Dispatch reported large tree down blocking in the 100 block of Scotts Mill Rd. Time estimated based on radar. (LMK)

1940 UNK 1 NW Cowan Fleming KY 3842 8391 Tree reportedly blown down onto Delaney Road. Event time estimated from radar. (JKL)

2008 UNK 1 NE Vevay Switzerland IN 3875 8506 Photos provided by media show tree damage throughout the east side of Vevay ... especially on Ohio Street and East Seminary Street. Large healthy limbs along with several trees blown down. (ILN)

2049 UNK 2 S Coal Run Pike KY 3748 8256 Video relayed of two large trees snapped at the base from strong winds at consecutive properties along Cedar Creek Rd in Pikeville. Time estimated via radar. (JKL)

2231 UNK 1 NNE Flatwoods Greenup KY 3854 8271 trees down. (RLX)

0142 UNK 8 WSW Greenup Greenup KY 3853 8297 Trees down at Osborne Cemetery Road. (RLX)

Both CVG / CMH got to 95 and DAY 94 today.

----

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 29, 2024 5:20 pm Wow! LOU hit 102 today, the hottest temp since July of 2012.

Urban heat Island effect. Still impressive though. Urban heat Island has been in effect since 2012!

dce wrote: ↑Thu Aug 29, 2024 6:28 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 29, 2024 5:20 pm Wow! LOU hit 102 today, the hottest temp since July of 2012.

Urban heat Island effect. Still impressive though. Urban heat Island has been in effect since 2012!

Agreed! Their temp has been off for years. CVG is starting to slowly get that way although not to the level of LOU yet.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 29, 2024 6:40 pm

dce wrote: ↑Thu Aug 29, 2024 6:28 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 29, 2024 5:20 pm Wow! LOU hit 102 today, the hottest temp since July of 2012.

Urban heat Island effect. Still impressive though. Urban heat Island has been in effect since 2012!

Agreed! Their temp has been off for years. CVG is starting to slowly get that way although not to the level of LOU yet.

I think something is going on at CHM as well. They have been consistently running about 2 degrees warmer than most of the ILN area the entire summer. I wonder if something is going on with their sensor.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 29, 2024 5:20 pm Wow! LOU hit 102 today, the hottest temp since July of 2012.

This is a perfect example that should be taught for up and coming mets. Louisville at 102 and CVG at 95. Why and this is weather 101 and we had dew points in the upper 60's to near 70 while Louisville had dew points in to 60-62 range. So at the end of the day the heat index just a few degrees difference. Just waiting for the cooler air and less humidity and can we hit 90 again after Friday and sure but with what I see in the extended its going to very hard plus if it happens in September it will probably be a 90 or 91 degree high with dew points in the low-mid 50's

Good morning all! Day #30 for 90 degree days is expected today at CVG. Cloud / t-storm dependent, we could make a run at the U90s in some areas once again. A few storms are possible again this afternoon and evening. Then, we've got a shot early Sat then again in the afternoon and evening with the front. Sunday is decent in the upper 80s and then the real deal cooler temps and low humidity comes at us on Labor Day as we kick off Sept. Most of next week is looking dry at this time so good luck to all over the next 48 hours or so.

Records for today:

CVG - 96 set back in 1962, 1953, and 1932
DAY - 96 set back in 1976, 1953, and 1898
CMH - 100 set back in 1953

Good Morning and one last day of the heat and humidity. Temps of course will dependent on cloud cover and something we can follow later this morning and early afternoon. Still believe the 92-94 range seems correct but all it takes is cloud cover to move in early or no clouds until very late and temps can to high or to low. Rainfall and though some folks got hit the other day we still need a nice soaking to help out. The first front will come in overnight and early Saturday and will more and likely stall for a period of time. Love to see that front stall just to the northwest of the local area and we could end up with several hours of rainfall especially in that 4a-9a period. Could see some renewed showers later in the day but the further south the better chance. One thing there should be plenty of lightning with these storms. Sunday brings in the drier air and next weeks looks like your typical 1st week of September. Not seeing any return of the heat in the next 10 days and then we watch the tropics and see how they progress. Just looking at the Atlantic and things are picking up and sure some will form into tropical systems but this far out it looks like the east coast and not the gulf coast has the best shot of getting hit.

Hey Les and when I mentioned yesterday about Brian's video and I believe he thought the chances of frost would be in Oct not Sept. He thought this would be earlier than normal for Louisville. Again I have no problems with his thoughts on the frost though much easier with better vegetation and as we know getting a true freeze for our area can wait many times into November.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Aug 30, 2024 6:57 am Good Morning and one last day of the heat and humidity. Temps of course will dependent on cloud cover and something we can follow later this morning and early afternoon. Still believe the 92-94 range seems correct but all it takes is cloud cover to move in early or no clouds until very late and temps can to high or to low. Rainfall and though some folks got hit the other day we still need a nice soaking to help out. The first front will come in overnight and early Saturday and will more and likely stall for a period of time. Love to see that front stall just to the northwest of the local area and we could end up with several hours of rainfall especially in that 4a-9a period. Could see some renewed showers later in the day but the further south the better chance. One thing there should be plenty of lightning with these storms. Sunday brings in the drier air and next weeks looks like your typical 1st week of September. Not seeing any return of the heat in the next 10 days and then we watch the tropics and see how they progress. Just looking at the Atlantic and things are picking up and sure some will form into tropical systems but this far out it looks like the east coast and not the gulf coast has the best shot of getting hit.

Hey Les and when I mentioned yesterday about Brian's video and I believe he thought the chances of frost would be in Oct not Sept. He thought this would be earlier than normal for Louisville. Again I have no problems with his thoughts on the frost though much easier with better vegetation and as we know getting a true freeze for our area can wait many times into November.

All good Tim! I think our first freeze using CVG is around 10/25 or something for the avg. Of course with UHI, the rural areas will get a frost or a freeze long before the city centers do.

I went ahead and got the Sept. thread started. We can use this one to finish out the month discussing t-storm chances for today and tomorrow. Of course achieving a record high is also on the table for today.

No grass to cut , but have had to go to leaf mulching mode for customers for the holiday weekend

95 now at CVG per the 1pm reading. A record high for today is a slam dunk! We have to beat 97 for the hottest day of 2024. IMO that is also within reach.

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
141 PM EDT FRI AUG 30 2024

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT CINCINNATI OH...

A RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 97 DEGREES WAS SET AT THE
CINCINNATI NORTHERN KENTUCKY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TODAY AT 135 PM.

THIS BREAKS THE OLD DAILY RECORD OF 96 DEGREES SET IN 1932, 1953,
AND 1962.

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED LATER TODAY IF THE TEMPERATURE
INCREASES.

97 as of 2pm. 1 more degree too go for the hottest temp of 2024.