July 2024 Weather Discussion

[airwolf76]

was nice to have a couple days of lower temps and dewpoints. the next week looks like back to crap 85-90 temps and higher humidity will be nice when we get a break from this in Sept or Oct

[tron777]

Good morning all! 0.38" at CVG yesterday while I was gone. How did you all do? It looks like we have a very good shot at some heavy rain later today into tonight. Chances look decent on Tuesday, lower some Wed and Thurs then ramp back up again Fri into Sat. Hopefully we can all get an inch or two out of the deal this week.

[Bgoney]

A few sprinkles here yesterday. A couple narrow fetches of better amounts locally.

IMG_2021.jpeg

[tron777]

Looks like the next batch is over ILL heading in our direction. It remains to be seen if it holds together or weakens. I'd say it will probably weaken as the nocturnal LLJ weakens. However, it should send an out low boundary our way for PM development should we get some heating to occur. Visible satellite does show quite a bit of cloud cover so the degree of instability for later this afternoon in my mind is questionable.

The boys seem pretty optimistic with their thoughts from overnight:


While a few disorganized/cellular storms are expected in
central/south-central OH and NE KY into early afternoon, the
primary focus for the daytime period will be directed to our NW
as an MCS originating out of IA dives to the SE through IL/IN
into early afternoon. The environment ahead of this feature
(downstream) will be gradually destabilizing into the late
morning/early afternoon period, with SBCAPE ~2000 J/kg in the
immediate downstream environment past the noontime hour.
Although this complex will be outrunning its source forcing, it
should still be largely cold-pool driven, suggesting that
convective maintenance (and intensity) should be maintained
quite awhile. As with many of these scenarios, certain
convective-allowing models tend to "kill" the complexes much
too soon. And, given the ripening LL thermodynamic environment
in EC/SE IN and the Tri-State area into mid afternoon, this may
very well be another one of those cases where the line/clusters
holds itself together to a much greater degree further to the
E/SE (primarily from Fayette Co IN to Pike Co OH and points S of
this line). This maintenance of both organization and intensity
into the ILN FA, even with a slow "downward tick" in both,
would suggest that a semi- cohesive line of storms will move
into EC/SE IN and the Tri- State into N KY around 18z-20z,
bringing with it the potential for gusty winds and torrential
rainfall. Should this scenario unfold, there certainly may be a
few strong storms in the Tri- State mid/late afternoon
(particularly in any SW-NE oriented segment), with the
expectation for a slow weakening trend with SE extent further
into the area (south- central OH and NE KY) by late afternoon.
Will continue to mention this potential in the HWO, with the
greatest potential for a severe storm or two (with damaging
winds being the primary threat) to be focused in far SE IN and N
KY.

[Bgoney]

Yea, my vote would be to weaken also, with the current MCS in Illinois. Extensive cloud cover in Indiana and Ohio for a good chunk of the day. Doesn’t mean we won’t see any shower activity later, just that we get the usual leftovers from this particular event, unless we can get rid of the clouds

[tpweather]

Good Morning and ended up 0.66 so making up for a slow start to summer at my house. No changes to the forecast as daily rain chances and days with more sunshine can end up above 90 with high dew points we could see a day or maybe two of heat index above 100. The weekend we have a brief period of less humidity and temps probably in the 85-88 range so warm but not as humid. Then we see next week if a tropical system can gets its act together. The CMC does show in the eastern GOM and though the GFS really does not show a system it shows tons of moisture and the Euro keeps the system on the east coast. If the CMC and GFS ends up being correct we should be on the western end of some showers and thundershowers next week but if the Euro is correct a drier and warm to hot forecast. Which model is correct and at this early stage leaning towards the CMC and GFS but not throwing out the Euro.

Nice complex in Illinois this morning and heading east/southeast. We will watch this today and see if it holds together or just forms another area later today and overnight. We have the moisture and the added fuel of some heat to the west so a rather classic mcs formation this week. Totals will be all over the board and hopefully everyone can get in on some of the action.

[tron777]

Nice posts guys! The air mass is loaded with low level moisture and also as you guys know, it is very humid outside. That being said, it won't take much heating to spark new t-storm development. We watch and wait as we typically do lol Whomever can get in on a few rounds of heavier rain, localized flash flooding will be of concern but I think that is going to be more isolated vs being widespread. Same with any strong to severe t-storms. I also believe that will be more localized vs being widespread.

[tpweather]

Nice post Les and concerning the flooding these will be isolated and short duration but can happen quickly like yesterday. Severe threat is mainly heavy rain and some strong winds with any mcs moving through. By the time July ends temp will average less than 1 degree above average which in my book is average and rain totals will be above normal and won't have all the totals until Thursday but again July and rain totals can be all over the board but at least not a dry month and one that has helped out for any longer term drought. Again summer time and we usually get 2-4 weeks of no rain and this year June started out that way but July has eased the situation. Concerning 90 degree days and we are ahead but not by much so the folks in the national media can quit giving out false information like usual to further their agenda. Its summer and it gets hot and at least for my 63 years on earth it has happened lets calculate it and yes 63 years

[tron777]

Nice post Les and concerning the flooding these will be isolated and short duration but can happen quickly like yesterday. Severe threat is mainly heavy rain and some strong winds with any mcs moving through. By the time July ends temp will average less than 1 degree above average which in my book is average and rain totals will be above normal and won't have all the totals until Thursday but again July and rain totals can be all over the board but at least not a dry month and one that has helped out for any longer term drought. Again summer time and we usually get 2-4 weeks of no rain and this year June started out that way but July has eased the situation. Concerning 90 degree days and we are ahead but not by much so the folks in the national media can quit giving out false information like usual to further their agenda. Its summer and it gets hot and at least for my 63 years on earth it has happened lets calculate it and yes 63 years

Agreed Tim. August will start out on the active side for sure with the MCS pattern we are in this week. Next week is still up in the air as you mentioned previously with regards to rainfall and / or heat. This summer really hasn't been out of the ordinary minus the lack of rainfall in some of our forecast area. I think most on our forum can agree with that notion. So far, my ideas for a very hot summer and a very dry summer have busted and I am okay with that. For August, some of the ensemble guidance continues to point to above avg rainfall for the month. That would be nice if correct going into our "dry season" if you will, since climatologically speaking Sept and Oct are the driest months of the year for us.

[Bgoney]

Some hazy sunshine here in eastern Hamilton


Didn’t last long , back to thick cloud cover

[tron777]

Some hazy sunshine here in eastern Hamilton


Didn’t last long , back to thick cloud cover

Seeing a bit of fog / mist here in Mason.

[tron777]

Local radar is showing a few showers / t-showers over NKY S of the Metro. Otherwise, we continue to watch what's left of the ILL MCS as it crosses over into IN.

[Bgoney]

Some hazy sunshine here in eastern Hamilton


Didn’t last long , back to thick cloud cover

Seeing a bit of fog / mist here in Mason.

Getting some of that instability destroying mist here in eastern Hamilton.

[Bgoney]

Not sure how many more times ILN needs to see this same scenario involving MCSs to figure it out

[tron777]

Not sure how many more times ILN needs to see this same scenario involving MCSs to figure it out

Despite the cloud cover, SPC meso page shows 1000 J/kg plus of CAPE over the area. However, bulk shear is non-existent over us. The better shear resides to the west over St. Louis. As everyone on here knows... the timing is terrible for our area. Time and time again, these complexes form to our NW overnight and we get the leftovers during the day which screws up future development. Too bad we just can't seem to get the better shear further east bound.

[tron777]

Mid morning update from the boys - They are finally seeing the weakening of the current MCS which we have discussed on here hours ago.

Mid level shortwave trof axis over central Ohio to continue
shifting east with a northwest flow across the area. A few
showers psbl mainly over the east associated with the trof axis
shifting east through the area this morning.

With the increase in moisture a very muggy/humid airmass has
settled into the region, with expansive low clouds across the
Ohio Valley.

Focus shifts to the MCS over IL that is diving south-southeast
thru early afternoon. Convection from this feature drops into
the area in a weakening phase during the afternoon - with the
best coverage across the southern counties.

Highs today will generally reach into the mid 80s.

Remnants of the initial MCS lays out an outflow boundary across
southern Indiana - which looks to the focus for convective re-
development. This second MCS to develop southeast and is
expected to clip ILN/s southwest counties during the evening
hours. Heavy rain and possible flooding looks to be the main
impact with the more favorable severe region to our sw and
south, where the more favorable instby is expected to reside.
There is still a fair amount of uncertainty on the exact
development and track of this second MCS and therefore can not
rule out possible severe wx across southwest counties. Therefore,
will update the HWO and include the evening mention of heavy
rain and localized flood and possible severe.

[tron777]

12Z NAM wants to hammer us with an MCS tonight while the 12Z HRRR clips Cincy and points SW with the overnight MCS. 12Z Hi-res NAM keeps most of it to our SW which is probably the more believable solution. As usual, we shall see, but I wouldn't hold your breath. We know how bad the CAM's can be.

[tpweather]

Still cloudy and drizzle and looks more like mid-November. These MCS's tend to dry out but the difference today is we have other energy around and tons and I mean tons of tropical moisture. I have no ideal which model is correct overnight but when you see the see to the west and feeding energy with any disturbance the mcs can be quite strong. Yes somebody will probably get hit hard while others not so much. I do like the showers and thundershowers building out ahead of the current mcs and will not take much even without sunshine to pop more storms later this afternoon.

[tron777]

Still cloudy and drizzle and looks more like mid-November. These MCS's tend to dry out but the difference today is we have other energy around and tons and I mean tons of tropical moisture. I have no ideal which model is correct overnight but when you see the see to the west and feeding energy with any disturbance the mcs can be quite strong. Yes somebody will probably get hit hard while others not so much. I do like the showers and thundershowers building out ahead of the current mcs and will not take much even without sunshine to pop more storms later this afternoon.

The current radar picture does not impress me. We'll see if that changes as time goes on. If we had the bulk shear I'd be much more optimistic. The only thing that we do have going for us is weak CAPE along with the deep tropical moisture as mentioned.

[tpweather]

Hey Les and we finally disagree on something this month. I believe the radar is very impressive with many storms forming out ahead of the current mcs. Today's mcs was never the story but the pieces of energy from the system that was along the Texas coast late last week. That energy is still around the area today and I believe that is why we are seeing these storms form. Concerning the next mcs and that will not be known until much later today and these can form at different times but tend to very late in the day and then at night the STJ tends to get a little busier in the summer at night.

[MVWxObserver]

The current 30% to 40% POPs for Tues e.g. looks more promising for the outdoor dedication ceremony at my neighborhood village's brand new Bocce ball court at 4 PM. **knocking on wood**

[tpweather]

Just looking at the 2 short term models Les mentioned and the HRRR is understanding the current status much better imo. Does that mean its correct for overnight and maybe not but I do like the mcs overnight to be further south and west which puts us on the northeast side of the event

[tron777]

Hey Les and we finally disagree on something this month. I believe the radar is very impressive with many storms forming out ahead of the current mcs. Today's mcs was never the story but the pieces of energy from the system that was along the Texas coast late last week. That energy is still around the area today and I believe that is why we are seeing these storms form. Concerning the next mcs and that will not be known until much later today and these can form at different times but tend to very late in the day and then at night the STJ tends to get a little busier in the summer at night.

The radar to the west is starting to look a little better, Tim I agree, however, I am concerned that a lot of the activity misses to the SW. It'll be close!

[tron777]

12Z GFS (as well as previous runs) has an MCS tonight and again tomorrow night for our area. We'll see as usual.

[tpweather]

Les I tend to agree once with the models and with some heat indexes to the southwest of us expected over the next few days between 110-115 this is a recipe for some decent MCS's to form and be quite strong. Exactly the placement is still tough but I believe we are in a good shape at this time though we know when once forms and moves through it can switch the placement of the next one that forms.