Absolute Vorticity

CVG got to 67, DAY 66 and CMH 63 today.

Currently 72 here in G'ville and going for 78!

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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
500 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>097-OHZ060-070-071-077-078-
150900-
Wayne-Fayette-Union-Franklin-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-
Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-
Preble-Butler-Warren-Hamilton-Clermont-
500 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Indiana,
southeast Indiana, northern Kentucky, southwest Ohio and west
central Ohio.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A few strong to severe storms will be possible Wednesday. Large hail
and damaging winds are the primary threats.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Wednesday afternoon and evening.

$$

...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Wednesday...
Guidance continues to suggest some severe threat will persist into
Wednesday afternoon given the strength of low to mid-level flow
before the Upper MS Valley surface cyclone further occludes and
dampens over the western to central Great Lakes. The northeast lobe
of the warm-moist sector emanating from the western Gulf should be
more confined relative to D3/Tuesday. Thus, have only delineated a
small 15 percent highlight where consensus of guidance suggests the
best potential for daytime destabilization will overlap with the
stronger low to deep-layer flow. Low severe probabilities are
evident surrounding the highlight, both farther south-southwestward
in the TN Valley/Mid-South and northeastward deeper into IN/OH.

Currently 79 here in G'ville, DAY 80 and CVG 81!

CVG, DAY and CMH all reached 81 today.

Good Monday to you all! We fond over 300 morel's yesterday! My Brother and I ate about 50 of them deep fried last night lol I also grilled a deer loin. We are going to try and go back next Sunday. Low 80s expected today. Going to try and get the lawn mowed after work. Then we introduce t-storm chances Tues, likely action Wed, then lingering showers Fri. We may squeak in a dry Thurs?. I have not looked at any models since Saturday so I cannot comment on rainfall amounts yet. Cooler this weekend in the 50s with lows in the 30s and low 40s across the region.

Occluding surface cyclone in the northeast IA vicinity on Wednesday morning will further dampen as it tracks towards Lower MI. Despite weakening tropospheric flow fields, favorable low to deep-layer shear profiles should persist into early evening. The northeast lobe of the warm-moist sector emanating from the western Gulf should spread across at least the Lower OH Valley. While some low-level warm theta-e advection-driven convection may be ongoing at 12Z Wednesday, overall signals have been for less convection impacting the buoyancy plume compared to prior forecasts. As such, potential for greater daytime destabilization is apparent, with a moderate MLCAPE field from 1000-2000 J/kg likely. Most guidance suggests early afternoon convective initiation will occur along the cold front trailing south-southwest from the occluding cyclone. A mix of all severe hazards appears possible with both supercells and multicell clusters. Greatest convective concentration is expected near/north of the Lower to Central Ohio Valley

Good Morning and a beautiful day in store and really much of Tuesday as well. Do we get another round or two of strong to severe storms and the answer is maybe. The first round should happen Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a weakening line of storms from the central plains arrives. This time of year though storms can hold together quite nicely and these could bring some severe storms though my guess is this would be heavy rain,high winds,plenty of lightning and maybe small hail. The system seems to be a tad slower than models showed yesterday and this could give us a second chance of some decent storms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Again will need to see how the morning convection evolves and this like usual will set the stage later in the day. We are talking mid April so the sun can work quickly so its easier for the atmosphere to recover.

Rainfall totals overall are probably near 1/2 inch but if you get under a thunderstorm those totals can easily go over an inch.

One other item is Tuesday morning as the front heading through the area today sort of stalls and will try and head back north. This could ramp up enough to create some showers and thundershowers but I am not sure how widespread this will be if it happens at all.

Cooler weather late in the week and yes maybe some more rain as well. Good thing is the systems are bringing some nice rainfall to many folks east of the rockies and always good heading towards summer.

Thank you Tim for that great post! Saves me time from having to look at past model runs.

Trends for Wednesday with several severe parameters keep nudging upward. Sufficient shear has been there, and SBcape has moved further northward along with better timing.

Overnight thoughts from the boys on Wed:


As we have seen several times already this springtime, the
prevalence of early morning/early day convection and the
associated widespread cloud cover that goes with it can
substantially modulate, delay, and limit attempts for
destabilization prior to the primary round of forcing/storms. It
looks like this /could/ be the case again on Wednesday as
fairly widespread pcpn is expected around daybreak, with a
narrowing axis of instby advecting E and pinching off into the
ILN FA through the afternoon hours. A better LL thermodynamic
environment is expected to exist early in the day, initially to
the W of the local area before it drifts E into the SW third or
so of the local area into early afternoon. Strong LL flow will
exist ahead of the advancing front, with good LL/deeper-layer
shear to work with. Sfc flow should be veered, but with plenty
of speed and some subtle LL directional shear in the profile.
The question remains just how much destabilization is able to
occur late morning through mid afternoon in the pre-storm
environment and to what degree that better warm sector is able
to move N/E before pinching off as the system continues to
occlude and the front pivots to more of a ENE-WSW orientation
opposed to NE-SW orientation. The system as a whole, including
the associated wind fields around it, should be in a weakening
stage with eastward extent, lending itself to uncertainties in
just how much the richer LL moisture and better thermodynamic
environment is able to surge northward prior to the front`s
arrival. At this juncture, it does appear that there will be at
least a small window for development of better instby in EC IN
and far wrn WC OH and the Tri-State/N KY by early/mid afternoon,
but how much this may extend N/E still remains uncertain. Given
the setup, would expect that several clusters of TSRA should
develop upstream in IN early Wednesday afternoon before moving
to the E into the Tri-State by early/mid afternoon. At this
juncture, a few strong to severe storms do appear possible, with
gusty/damaging winds and large hail being the primary threats.
Will continue to highlight potential in HWO. Rainfall on
Wednesday should generally be on the order of one half to one
inch, with slightly higher amounts possible in the stronger
storms.

Great Video from Brian once again. The only thing I worry about somewhat is later Wednesday especially if we get little in the way of storms overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. If that happens then we could see plenty of sun and yes fuel for storms later in the day. Models should have a better handle by Tuesday but concerning severe weather that is the best shot imo. Weekend looks like you see many times in later April and temps in the 50's with clouds and lows in the 30's. Not sure about frost because you need the timing perfect with the sky clearing out and light winds and not sure we see that happening any morning but again something to watch later this week

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Apr 15, 2024 10:36 am Great Video from Brian once again. The only thing I worry about somewhat is later Wednesday especially if we get little in the way of storms overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. If that happens then we could see plenty of sun and yes fuel for storms later in the day. Models should have a better handle by Tuesday but concerning severe weather that is the best shot imo. Weekend looks like you see many times in later April and temps in the 50's with clouds and lows in the 30's. Not sure about frost because you need the timing perfect with the sky clearing out and light winds and not sure we see that happening any morning but again something to watch later this week

Wed AM rain / cloud contamination will tell us how we look for Wed afternoon. If we don't get a messy set up then the severe threat will go way up. Then, with regards to the cool spell, the trough does not look as deep as it did last week. I'm going with U30s to low 40s right now and we might be able to remove the frost threat in a few days should this trend hold. I think we're in pretty good agreement Tim for the next week and change.

Instead of today being our 1st 80, yesterday turned out to be. CVG made it to 81 yesterday. Could see 82 or so today also. Going to try and get the jungle (lawn) cut this evening before our next weather system moves in. Definitely more moisture in the air today with dews around 60 versus the U40s yesterday.

80 as of 2pm at CVG.

Quite a contrast as currently 68 here in G'ville and 74 DAY.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Mon Apr 15, 2024 2:14 pm Quite a contrast as currently 68 here in G'ville and 74 DAY.

Yeah... there is a weak frontal boundary draped across the area.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 15, 2024 2:18 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Mon Apr 15, 2024 2:14 pm Quite a contrast as currently 68 here in G'ville and 74 DAY.

Yeah... there is a weak frontal boundary draped across the area.

ILN has 76 progged for G'ville and 77 for DAY so we'll see, despite the weak frontal boundary.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Mon Apr 15, 2024 2:24 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 15, 2024 2:18 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Mon Apr 15, 2024 2:14 pm Quite a contrast as currently 68 here in G'ville and 74 DAY.

Yeah... there is a weak frontal boundary draped across the area.

ILN has 76 progged for G'ville and 77 for DAY so we'll see, despite the weak frontal boundary.

The biggest contrast isn't so much the air temp but the dewpoint, or amount of moisture in the atmosphere. S of the boundary, CVG's dew is at 62. N of it, DAY's dew is 58 Lima's dew is in the 40s and there are even dews in the 30s over NW Ohio.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 15, 2024 2:27 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Mon Apr 15, 2024 2:24 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 15, 2024 2:18 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Mon Apr 15, 2024 2:14 pm Quite a contrast as currently 68 here in G'ville and 74 DAY.

Yeah... there is a weak frontal boundary draped across the area.

ILN has 76 progged for G'ville and 77 for DAY so we'll see, despite the weak frontal boundary.

The biggest contrast isn't so much the air temp but the dewpoint, or amount of moisture in the atmosphere. S of the boundary, CVG's dew is at 62. N of it, DAY's dew is 58 Lima's dew is in the 40s and there are even dews in the 30s over NW Ohio.

I hear ya Bro!

G'ville 72 / 43 DP and DAY 76 / 57 DP.

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Exactly Eric... Central KY is in the warm sector today. That will be us soon as the front bows back north as a warm front. Then, can we destabilize enough on Wed ahead of the cold front is the ultimate question for us this week.