Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 08, 2023 8:58 am But again I don't see anything that screams break out the shovels at this time.

Plus we are getting into the time of year where the sun angle is higher, and with the recent warm spells the ground is quite warm so it would take a lot to cover sidewalks, roads, etc. I do recall 1993 though.....

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 08, 2023 10:08 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 08, 2023 8:58 am But again I don't see anything that screams break out the shovels at this time.

Plus we are getting into the time of year where the sun angle is higher, and with the recent warm spells the ground is quite warm so it would take a lot to cover sidewalks, roads, etc. I do recall 1993 though.....

And 2008

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 08, 2023 11:24 am

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 08, 2023 10:08 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 08, 2023 8:58 am But again I don't see anything that screams break out the shovels at this time.

Plus we are getting into the time of year where the sun angle is higher, and with the recent warm spells the ground is quite warm so it would take a lot to cover sidewalks, roads, etc. I do recall 1993 though.....

And 2008

Those are classic accumulating March snowstorms for our area. I'll add one more. March 31, 1987.

And early April 1987, there were back to back snow storms.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 08, 2023 1:27 pm And early April 1987, there were back to back snow storms.

Indeed. Unfortunately not for Dayton where I lived. We received 10 inches March 31 into April 1st. I was missed by the second storm almost completely. I remember that storm like it was yesterday. I was upset that afternoon because the snow wasn't accumulating on the roads and thought I wouldn't get a snow day from a predicted 6-10 inches of snow. When the sun went down it didn't disappoint. It accumulated on the roads and school was cancelled the next day.

Sunshine should push us to near 50 today with the upper 20s tonight. L50s tomorrow then rain chances move in Thurs night into Fri. Again, precip amounts aren't looking to be too much. Then we'll see if we can start as some snow Sat night into Sun.

I just read that the UK is getting a wintery blast. London airports disrupted and warnings for snow and cold temperatures for at least the northern half or more.

Wxlrnr wrote: ↑Wed Mar 08, 2023 5:54 pm I just read that the UK is getting a wintery blast. London airports disrupted and warnings for snow and cold temperatures for at least the northern half or more.

Great Post and Europe especially western part has been very mild and very similar to the east coast of the USA. Eastern Europe started out mild but had a nice cold spell with snow later in January and February.

Good morning all! 0.10 to 0.20" of rain is on the way for tonight ending early Fri. Then some rain / snow showers Sat night into Sun ending on Monday. Nothing looks particularly heavy with temps in the 30s and low 40s with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Mar 09, 2023 7:34 am 63B02202-9706-4ACD-B808-1820FD45F4DB.jpeg

The OV classic donut hole!

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Mar 09, 2023 7:34 am 63B02202-9706-4ACD-B808-1820FD45F4DB.jpeg

The good thing is we are between 15 and 20p/c above normal in rainfall this year. My main concerns are still the central and southern plains and hopefully over the next few weeks they get into some decent rainfall. Florida is the only other place and we know down there if the dryness continues the heat will expand quickly in April and that can lead to a long hot dry summer until the tropics become more active and if we head towards a El Nino like the models show that can lead to a decrease in tropical activity in that region.

MJO is in Phase 8 as of 3/7 per the Aussie site. The pattern is changing. We are cooler then where we have been and we will be normal to below for the next week to ten days at least. The forecast models have it in Phase 1 at a pretty high amplitude around mid month. So let's see if the 15th - 20th time period can offer up anything? We do have some light snow and rain coming this weekend but I'm still not impressed with anything sticking unless the OP GFS scores a coup. Even the GFS is marginal temp wise.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 09, 2023 8:46 am MJO is in Phase 8 as of 3/7 per the Aussie site. The pattern is changing. We are cooler then where we have been and we will be normal to below for the next week to ten days at least. The forecast models have it in Phase 1 at a pretty high amplitude around mid month. So let's see if the 15th - 20th time period can offer up anything? We do have some light snow and rain coming this weekend but I'm still not impressed with anything sticking unless the OP GFS scores a coup. Even the GFS is marginal temp wise.

Great Post Les. Best chance for snow to accumulate around here would be overnight Sat-Sun mid morning. Just believe like you mentioned temps are marginal and during the day on Sunday just a cold rain as precip not hard enough to keep the snowflake alive to the surface.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Mar 09, 2023 8:55 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 09, 2023 8:46 am MJO is in Phase 8 as of 3/7 per the Aussie site. The pattern is changing. We are cooler then where we have been and we will be normal to below for the next week to ten days at least. The forecast models have it in Phase 1 at a pretty high amplitude around mid month. So let's see if the 15th - 20th time period can offer up anything? We do have some light snow and rain coming this weekend but I'm still not impressed with anything sticking unless the OP GFS scores a coup. Even the GFS is marginal temp wise.

Great Post Les. Best chance for snow to accumulate around here would be overnight Sat-Sun mid morning. Just believe like you mentioned temps are marginal and during the day on Sunday just a cold rain as precip not hard enough to keep the snowflake alive to the surface.

Yeah... you want a strengthening system tracking to your south for better dynamic cooling, not a weakening one that is not phased.

there is a winter weather statement out for my area. 2-4 " friday afternoon till saterday morning

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 09, 2023 9:23 am there is a winter weather statement out for my area. 2-4 " friday afternoon till saterday morning

Nice! Glad to see you are making a late season rebound.

New This Week in Weather from DT:

12Z NAM came in a tad colder for Sat night into early Sun morning. At CVG:
This is a marginal set up but with heavy precip rates it can snow, so that is the key right there. Plus this is a big uptick in QPF too. Probably one of those "Got NAM'ed" runs.

09z SREF Snowfall predictor for the SAT night-SUN morning potential

12Z GFS isn't as cold as the NAM, but it also upped the QPF to around a half inch!

12Z GFS also has a snow storm now for the evening / overnight of St Patrick's Day. The solution is believable due to MJO Phase 1.

For this weekend, the 12Z Euro brings in a touch of snow Sat night but nothing major because the system basically dries up and falls apart. That solution has shown up every now and again so we cannot discount it either.

For the period around St. Patty's Day, the Euro has a low working up along the front well to our East.

And of course at 18Z the St Patty's Day snow storm is gone! Got to love the GFS. Anyway, snow / rain mix is looking likely for Sat night into early Sun morning. Little accum expected in my mind as of now.