Absolute Vorticity

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Feb 09, 2023 4:11 pm

Made it to 72

Wow! Pretty remarkable for this early in the month. A few years ago I believe we had 79 at CVG and LOU had its first 80 degree reading ever, but if I recall it occurred much later in the month. Yep, I found it. It was 2018. Record high for CVG on 2/20 is 79 set back in 2018 so that was the year I was thinking about.

Me on campus today:

Browneyedgirl wrote: ↑Thu Feb 09, 2023 4:12 pm Have we seen the strongest winds or do we have more fun in the way?

I think we have seen the strongest winds (minus Eastern counties) but gusts to 40mph or so are still possible for a couple more hours. Then I think things will slowly begin to wind down. It may take until after midnight for gusts to come back down into the 20s mph range.

MJSun wrote: ↑Thu Feb 09, 2023 4:15 pm Me on xmapus today: windy.png

A perfect pic to describe the day!

Quick update here from the boys:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
The broken line of showers have nearly fizzled out now. This has led
to some increased breaks in the cloud coverage for a larger portion
of our CWA this afternoon. In response to this, hi-res models such
as the HRRR were picking up on the potential for deeper BL mixing,
allowing for the stronger winds aloft to mix down to the surface
around the I-71 corridor. This led us to an upgrade to a High Wind
Warning for the remainder of our southwestern counties, as well as
many counties that are near I-71. The strongest gusts expected to
continue until about 6 PM when diurnal mixing is most amplified. As
previously mentioned, strong wind gusts (which could exceed Advisory
level criteria) may linger along/north of I-70. Because of this,
have issued a Wind Advisory for our northern counties through 11 PM
this evening to account for some strong winds that hang around.

Winds will gradually subside overnight as the pressure gradient
loosens. Can expect overnight lows to dip into the 30s for most
locations.

I got everyone beat. The back porch is warm and toasty

FYI - For those that use the Tropical Tidbits site, it is offline for maintenance until around 7pm EST. You can still use other sites like College of Dupage or Pivotal Weather to see model info.

young pup wrote: ↑Thu Feb 09, 2023 4:39 pm I got everyone beat. The back porch is warm and toasty 019944EF-C7C9-4799-8586-BA52AA4A8049.jpeg

Looks like Trev has been using a lighter at your house JP.

young pup wrote: ↑Thu Feb 09, 2023 4:39 pm I got everyone beat. The back porch is warm and toasty 019944EF-C7C9-4799-8586-BA52AA4A8049.jpeg

Good Lord! That thing must get up to 120+ in the heart of summer.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Feb 09, 2023 4:40 pm

young pup wrote: ↑Thu Feb 09, 2023 4:39 pm I got everyone beat. The back porch is warm and toasty 019944EF-C7C9-4799-8586-BA52AA4A8049.jpeg

Looks like Trev has been using a lighter at your house JP.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 09, 2023 4:40 pm

young pup wrote: ↑Thu Feb 09, 2023 4:39 pm I got everyone beat. The back porch is warm and toasty 019944EF-C7C9-4799-8586-BA52AA4A8049.jpeg

Good Lord! That thing must get up to 120+ in the heart of summer.

Every bit of it. lol I should have been sitting out there preparing my tax stuff. lol

young pup wrote: ↑Thu Feb 09, 2023 4:44 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 09, 2023 4:40 pm

young pup wrote: ↑Thu Feb 09, 2023 4:39 pm I got everyone beat. The back porch is warm and toasty 019944EF-C7C9-4799-8586-BA52AA4A8049.jpeg

Good Lord! That thing must get up to 120+ in the heart of summer.

Every bit of it. lol I should have been sitting out there preparing my tax stuff. lol

Be tough working outside with the strong winds though. Knowing my luck a tree branch would conk me on the head.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 09, 2023 4:46 pm

young pup wrote: ↑Thu Feb 09, 2023 4:44 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 09, 2023 4:40 pm

young pup wrote: ↑Thu Feb 09, 2023 4:39 pm I got everyone beat. The back porch is warm and toasty 019944EF-C7C9-4799-8586-BA52AA4A8049.jpeg

Good Lord! That thing must get up to 120+ in the heart of summer.

Every bit of it. lol I should have been sitting out there preparing my tax stuff. lol

Be tough working outside with the strong winds though. Knowing my luck a tree branch would conk me on the head.

Absolutely. I was going to go for a walk but I didn't want to wear my hard hat. lol

Well guys.... Euro Weeklies show a blockier pattern late this month and into mid March. Will the combo of the MJO and SSW event save the day? Every EPS member now has the SSW event occurring by the 16th of Feb. As usual we shall see!

Official 5pm climate report stats:

CVG - 67 tied the record from 2001
DAY - 67 broke the record of 65 from 2001
CMH - 72 which smashed the record of 66 from 2001

IMBY I actually hit 68!

For peak wind gusts:

CVG - 52 mph
DAY - 56 mph
CMH - 50 mph

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 09, 2023 5:33 pm Official 5pm climate report stats:

CVG - 67 tied the record from 2001
DAY - 67 broke the record of 65 from 2001
CMH - 72 which smashed the record of 66 from 2001

IMBY I actually hit 68!

For peak wind gusts:

CVG - 52 mph
DAY - 56 mph
CMH - 50 mph

Wow. Go big or go home I guess here in CMH.
Still some howling winds at the moment. No big limbs down imby yet.

Via WHIO7 as of 6:15 PM ...

BUTLER COUNTY

Oxford Miami Airport- 53 m.p.h.

Middletown Airport- 52 m.p.h.

CLARK COUNTY

Springfield Airport- 46 m.p.h.

CLINTON COUNTY

SSE Wilmington- 48 m.p.h.

Wilmington Airport- 57 m.p.h.

DARKE COUNTY

Versailles Airport- 53 m.p.h.

Union City- 48 m.p.h.

GREENE COUNTY

Wright-Patt Air Force Base- 51 m.p.h.

Xenia Airport- 56 m.p.h.

LOGAN COUNTY

Bellefontaine Airport- 56 m.p.h.

W Bellefontaine (Logan County EMA)- 58 m.p.h.

MIAMI COUNTY

NNW Huber Heights - 47 m.p.h.

MONTGOMERY COUNTY

Dayton Cox Airport- 60 m.p.h.

Wright Bros Airport- 52 m.p.h.

SHELBY COUNTY

Sidney Airport- 52 m.p.h.

Currently 45 with a gust of 51 mph here in G'ville.

Guess I'll wait until between 11:30 and midnight to roll my cart to the curb for Fri AM pickup lol.

47 as of 7pm at CVG with a wind gust still to 40 mph. 48 IMBY. We will fall into the 30s by morning. Warm, wet, and windy continues to be the theme for next week. Much like this week. However, if you believe the OP GFS, 18Z run continues where the 12Z run left off with some potential showing up around the 22-23rd for snow lovers. Fantasy range naturally but I honestly do not see any potential thru the next 10+ days so all I can talk about for snow lovers is the fantasy range at this time. I am seeing signs of the AO dropping after the 20th. Models have the MJO in phase 7 or 8 by then as well. Again, pure speculation at this distance since models have been awful in the longer term as we all know, especially with the MJO. The Nina is dying though slowly but surely. The CPC confirms this with the following statement:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

We'll see guys, you know? IMO hope is still there for winter despite it being late in the season by the time Pres. Day rolls around. It is what it is and we have to take whatever we can get.

Are they going to turn HAARP off tonight or what? Good grief.

Good morning folks! Cloudy skies today but at least the wind is much calmer. We should sneak up into the low 40s. A nice weekend on tap with the 40s Sat and 50 or so on Sunday. For this time of year, it'll be fine weather for any SB parties that are going on. Monday and Tues of next week also looks mild with the 50s. Our next rain maker comes in Tues night into Wed morning. This system doesn't look very strong. Temps will shoot up into the 60s by Wed. The 60s again for Thurs with a much stronger front moving in. Windy conditions once again are expected. Early indications are that we may have a repeat of what we just went thru. Temps drop on Friday of next week after the frontal passage with seasonal temps for Pres Day weekend.

Where do we go from here? We'll have to wait and see, but it looks to me that temps will be more seasonal at least. I don't see any arctic air getting involved yet. That may wait until later in the month or March depending on the effects of the SSW and MJO phases. Much uncertainty exists at this time with the longer range forecast.

That Thurs event looks rather ominous atm. EU has temps in mid 60s at least, DPs upper 50s and big-time shear.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Feb 10, 2023 7:55 am That Thurs event looks rather ominous atm. EU has temps in mid 60s at least, DPs upper 50s and big-time shear.

We'll have to see how the time of day works out in terms of severe wx chances. In my eyes, it looks to be another windy system at the very least.

Here is a list of yesterday's wind reports from the boys:

https://www.weather.gov/iln/20230209

EPS/GEFS still in excellent agreement with the pattern Les described above at least to the 24th.