Absolute Vorticity

Posted: **Thu Jan 12, 2023 4:10 pm**

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Thu Jan 12, 2023 3:43 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 12, 2023 3:18 pm
MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Thu Jan 12, 2023 3:09 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 12, 2023 1:50 pm LOU's CWA has had 1 confirmed tornado so far:

EDIT: Wow! Per CB, that same area also had a small earthquake as well.

A quakenado!
Better then a sharknado!

Sharknado.PNG
I need to see that movie. Lol

If my memory serves me right on April 3rd 1974 when we had the Tornado outbreak there was a small tremor in NW Indiana that day. Maybe there's a correlation between pressure drops and weak fault lines? Who knows!

Joe I have no ideal if that happened. That is my number 1 weather event though and spent all afternoon outside while most folks stayed indoors.

Posted: **Thu Jan 12, 2023 4:18 pm**

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jan 12, 2023 4:10 pm
winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Thu Jan 12, 2023 3:43 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 12, 2023 3:18 pm
MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Thu Jan 12, 2023 3:09 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 12, 2023 1:50 pm LOU's CWA has had 1 confirmed tornado so far:

EDIT: Wow! Per CB, that same area also had a small earthquake as well.

A quakenado!
Better then a sharknado!

Sharknado.PNG
I need to see that movie. Lol

If my memory serves me right on April 3rd 1974 when we had the Tornado outbreak there was a small tremor in NW Indiana that day. Maybe there's a correlation between pressure drops and weak fault lines? Who knows!
Joe I have no ideal if that happened. That is my number 1 weather event though and spent all afternoon outside while most folks stayed indoors.

Hey Tim, me too...I was outside the whole time while my neighborhood friends we're in their basements. I was 12 years old at the time.

Posted: **Thu Jan 12, 2023 4:18 pm**

EPS Week 3 500mb shuffle and temp regime.

floop-ecmwf_full-2023011212.500h_anom.na.gif

floop-ecmwf_full-2023011212.sfct-met.na.gif

Posted: **Thu Jan 12, 2023 4:24 pm**

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Thu Jan 12, 2023 4:18 pm
tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jan 12, 2023 4:10 pm
winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Thu Jan 12, 2023 3:43 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 12, 2023 3:18 pm
MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Thu Jan 12, 2023 3:09 pm

A quakenado!
Better then a sharknado!

Sharknado.PNG
I need to see that movie. Lol

If my memory serves me right on April 3rd 1974 when we had the Tornado outbreak there was a small tremor in NW Indiana that day. Maybe there's a correlation between pressure drops and weak fault lines? Who knows!
Joe I have no ideal if that happened. That is my number 1 weather event though and spent all afternoon outside while most folks stayed indoors.
Hey Tim, me too...I was outside the whole time while my neighborhood friends we're in their basements. I was 12 years old at the time.

Joe I was 12 as well. For the 3rd of April it was one of the hottest days I ever remember. Maybe since winter had just ended and not ready for the warmer temps but I was dripping sweat all afternoon and only activity was looking up into the sky and seeing all the funnel clouds. I can remember around 2 or 3pm and not sure of the exact time but there must have been 20-30 in all different directions. It was wild and sad so many deaths occurred. Joe my friends were inside as well and my mom kept trying to get me inside but that was not happening. I was like a deer in headlights and could not look away.

Posted: **Thu Jan 12, 2023 5:52 pm**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jan 12, 2023 4:18 pm EPS Week 3 500mb shuffle and temp regime.

Position of the PNA Ridge is very critical. That is a bit too far West as shown there IMO. Hopefully that verifies a tad East as we saw the other day.

Posted: **Thu Jan 12, 2023 5:53 pm**

0.77" is my rainfall total for the day. Temp was 55 for the high. Down to 45 now.

Posted: **Thu Jan 12, 2023 6:21 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 12, 2023 5:52 pm
Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jan 12, 2023 4:18 pm EPS Week 3 500mb shuffle and temp regime.

Position of the PNA Ridge is very critical. That is a bit too far West as shown there IMO. Hopefully that verifies a tad East as we saw the other day.

Yea, I saw that, seen better seen worse , just so glad it's something different and try our luck with that

Posted: **Thu Jan 12, 2023 6:57 pm**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jan 12, 2023 6:21 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 12, 2023 5:52 pm
Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jan 12, 2023 4:18 pm EPS Week 3 500mb shuffle and temp regime.

Position of the PNA Ridge is very critical. That is a bit too far West as shown there IMO. Hopefully that verifies a tad East as we saw the other day.
Yea, I saw that, seen better seen worse , just so glad it's something different and try our luck with that

For sure! As you know, it's an avg too so there's no reason to believe that you can't see it spike a bit further to the East as a shortwave is coming out of the Rockies. That's really all you need anyway for a good storm.

Posted: **Thu Jan 12, 2023 7:31 pm**

Meso analysis this evening shows our low, now near Pittsburgh with the last bit of shower activity moving thru the area now. Critical thicknesses show cold enough air upstairs for all snow once you get West of IND. There is a disturbance in Wisc dropping south into the mean trough tonight which will assist in generating the snow shower activity for tomorrow / tomorrow night. Still believe the Lake Michigan fetch will be West or SW of Cincy for the best accumulations in our area. Also, the Mountains of KY and WV also expecting to get enough snow to perhaps break out the shovel there as well. Jeff, if you're out there, we need pics of your LES up there in Chardon over the next 36 hours.

Posted: **Thu Jan 12, 2023 8:31 pm**

My gauge picked up 1.20"

Currently 36 here in G'ville and progged for around 30 Fri morning.

Hi Joe and Tim,

I was 11 at the time of the April 3rd, 1974 Super Outbreak but wasn't as brave as you guys as I joined my family and 2 employees in our large apartment basement on the grounds of the Cincy Children's Home in Oakley where my Dad was a night manager and rec director.

I remember my Dad's transistor radio as it crackled with static at times with the event news updates and I did some homework while sitting in my Radio Flyer wagon via a flashlight as the power flickered at times. We had some cheese-filled pretzels from the Home kitchen for supper, which later became known as Combos via 1980.

Seemed like the longest late afternoon into the first part of the night timetable of my life until the all clear.

That event and the Blizzard of 1978 were a couple of things that triggered my weather hobby interest.

Posted: **Fri Jan 13, 2023 7:23 am**

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Thu Jan 12, 2023 8:31 pm My gauge picked up 1.20"

Currently 36 here in G'ville and progged for around 30 Fri morning.

Hi Joe and Tim,

I was 11 at the time of the April 3rd, 1974 Super Outbreak but wasn't as brave as you guys as I joined my family and 2 employees in our large apartment basement on the grounds of the Cincy Children's Home in Oakley where my Dad was a night manager and rec director. I remember my Dad's transistor radio as it crackled with static at times with the event news updates and I did some homework while sitting in my Radio Flyer wagon via a flashlight as the power flickered at times. We had some cheese-filled pretzels from the Home kitchen for supper, which later became known as Combos via 1980. Seemed like the longest late afternoon into the first part of the night timetable of my life until the all clear.

That event and the Blizzard of 1978 were a couple of things that triggered my weather hobby interest.

Good Morning Eric, those 2 events are at the top of my list of weather events. My interest in the weather happened very early and even before I started school. What a geek I was and matter of fact still to this day. Hope you and your family are doing well after the holidays and I believe you mentioned your mom and you were having some problems. I hope everything is okay. Take care my friend and Happy New Year

Posted: **Fri Jan 13, 2023 7:32 am**

Big changes overnighfor Sunday, a better chance for the Ravens to get their butts kicked. Hoo-dey!!!!

Posted: **Fri Jan 13, 2023 7:33 am**

Good Morning and a very typical January day in store and we have had very few so far this year. Snow flurries and maybe a hit and miss snow shower but nothing that will cause any traffic problems. A nice dry weekend in store as we get ready for another wet week before finally we start getting into a better pattern for snow and cold. The mjo is in the COD and has been for a few days and seems to be heading to phase 1. Would love to see that happen and yes the pattern is changing later next week. How the new pattern shapes up with the ridging and troughs is one we need to figure out and just because we get colder does not always mean we are in the correct place for snow and ice. So about one more week before the change but getting there is not easy as a few systems with more rain will be the main story next week. Sure some of the local streams are starting to get full and that is something we need to watch next week as well.

Posted: **Fri Jan 13, 2023 7:38 am**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 13, 2023 7:32 am Big changes overnighfor Sunday, a better chance for the Ravens to get their butts kicked. Hoo-dey!!!!

No doubt and without Jackson they have such a hard time scoring. They are a very good defensive team but if we get to 20points that should be enough to handle the Ravens. My biggest concern is keeping Joe upright during the game as they will blitz quite often and the right side of the offensive line is a little shaky as injuries have knocked out 2 starters. Hopefully we can get the running game going early and this will no doubt help.

Six games and need to thaw out more wings and still have plenty of beer so my recliner is about 8 feet from the TV and the bathroom about 20 feet so I won't need to miss any action lol

Posted: **Fri Jan 13, 2023 7:43 am**

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 13, 2023 7:38 am
Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 13, 2023 7:32 am Big changes overnighfor Sunday, a better chance for the Ravens to get their butts kicked. Hoo-dey!!!!
No doubt and without Jackson they have such a hard time scoring. They are a very good defensive team but if we get to 20points that should be enough to handle the Ravens. My biggest concern is keeping Joe upright during the game as they will blitz quite often and the right side of the offensive line is a little shaky as injuries have knocked out 2 starters. Hopefully we can get the running game going early and this will no doubt help.

Six games and need to thaw out more wings and still have plenty of beer so my recliner is about 8 feet from the TV and the bathroom about 20 feet so I won't need to miss any action lol

Lol Tim, you might want to move the recliner closer to the bathroom

Posted: **Fri Jan 13, 2023 7:46 am**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 13, 2023 7:43 am
tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 13, 2023 7:38 am
Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 13, 2023 7:32 am Big changes overnighfor Sunday, a better chance for the Ravens to get their butts kicked. Hoo-dey!!!!
No doubt and without Jackson they have such a hard time scoring. They are a very good defensive team but if we get to 20points that should be enough to handle the Ravens. My biggest concern is keeping Joe upright during the game as they will blitz quite often and the right side of the offensive line is a little shaky as injuries have knocked out 2 starters. Hopefully we can get the running game going early and this will no doubt help.

Six games and need to thaw out more wings and still have plenty of beer so my recliner is about 8 feet from the TV and the bathroom about 20 feet so I won't need to miss any action lol
Lol Tim, you might want to move the recliner closer to the bathroom

Lol, you are correct but then I won't get my needed exercise for the day though doing reps with the beer cans is sort of an exercise.

Posted: **Fri Jan 13, 2023 7:51 am**

Good morning all! Great news about that thug from Baltimore not playing and Tim... you need one of those Laz-e-bowl recliners and a TV in the bathroom!

Alright... so mid 30s attm here. Should see a few flakes today but nothing major as the best action (as modeled) so far is remaining to the West and SW of our local area. I suppose a couple of bands could work in to briefly drop visibilities but that's about it to be honest.

Posted: **Fri Jan 13, 2023 7:56 am**

Picked up about 3.5 inches overnight in Chardon. May get another 3-5+ inches by dawn tomorrow. So far for season about 2 feet below average for this time of year(51 inches is average for date) Current total about 26.5 inches.

Posted: **Fri Jan 13, 2023 8:01 am**

EF 0 confirmed in NK yesterday. Just goes to show that when you have shear in the 50-60 range severe chance is never non zero. Late next week another chance looks to be on the table with EU showing shear to be at least in the 50-60 range or higher

Posted: **Fri Jan 13, 2023 8:12 am**

Snowbrain2 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 13, 2023 7:56 am Picked up about 3.5 inches overnight in Chardon. May get another 3-5+ inches by dawn tomorrow. So far for season about 2 feet below average for this time of year(51 inches is average for date) Current total about 26.5 inches.

So that's what January is supposed to look like!

Awesome Jeff! I appreciate you sharing those photos with us every winter. Keep 'em coming and enjoy this event!

Posted: **Fri Jan 13, 2023 8:14 am**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 13, 2023 8:01 am EF 0 confirmed in NK yesterday. Just goes to show that when you have shear in the 50-60 range severe chance is never non zero. Late next week another chance looks to be on the table with EU showing shear to be at least in the 50-60 range or higher

I agree... and that low if it does cut NW of us (which I don't see why it wouldn't) would bring the severe threat further north more into our hoods. Def something to watch by about Thursday or so. Here's the PNS from the boys about the Grant co. Tornado from yesterday:

Code: Select all

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
729 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

...TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR WILLIAMSTOWN IN GRANT COUNTY KENTUCKY...

Start Location...2 NW Williamstown in Grant County KY
End Location...2 NW Williamstown in Grant County KY
Date...01/12/2023
Estimated Start Time...9:23 AM EST
Estimated End Time...9:24 AM EST
Maximum EF-Scale Rating...EF0
Estimated Maximum Wind Speed...85 mph
Maximum Path Width...50 yards
Path Length...0.3 miles
Beginning Lat/Lon...38.6581 /-84.5797
Ending Lat/Lon...38.6603 / -84.5756
* Fatalities...0
* Injuries...0

...Summary...
The National Weather Service in Wilmington Ohio has confirmed an
EF0 tornado near Williamstown KY.

The tornado appeared to first touch down at a residence along
Arlington Court, where part of the roof was removed. Shingles,
roof sheathing and insulation were lifted and blown several
hundred yards to the east northeast of the residence. Minor
siding and roof damage occurred to a neighboring house. In
addition, insulation from the first house was back spattered on
the east facing garage of the second house.

The tornado continued to track east northeast across Arnie Risen
Boulevard, where a tree was downed and a street sign was bent to
the ground. The tornado then crossed a tree line, where several
trees and large branches were downed, before it crossed a set
railroad tracks and U.S. Route 25. Just east of here, a steel
warehouse building suffered partial roof uplift and roof damage.
Two door frames on opposite sides of the building were blown
inward and a large steel cross beam was bent from the apparent
roof uplift. In addition, the soffit around the building was
damaged. This appeared to be the peak intensity of the tornado
where winds of 85 mph were estimated.

The tornado quickly weakened and dissipated beyond the warehouse
where some minor tree damage occurred.

The National Weather Service would like to thank Grant County
Emergency Management for coordination with this survey.

EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into the
following categories:

EF0...Weak......65 to 85 mph
EF1...Weak......86 to 110 mph
EF2...Strong....111 to 135 mph
EF3...Strong....136 to 165 mph
EF4...Violent...166 to 200 mph
EF5...Violent...>200 mph

* The information in this statement is preliminary and subject
  to change pending final review of the event and publication in
  NWS Storm Data.

Posted: **Fri Jan 13, 2023 8:38 am**

SOI continues to drop with the new reading for today coming in at -14.93. Nice post from Tim on the MJO as well this morning. Also keeping an eye on it naturally. I still believe we will see a -EPO coming within the next week to 10 days and a possible +PNA. Although that ridge on modeling is a little too far West for my liking. We have to watch it and the SE Ridge. The more West the PNA ridge is, the better the chance the SE Ridge keeps the storm track to our NW and we'll be getting out the boats. We've got to see that baroclinic boundary further SE for us to score later in January and into early Feb. Plenty of lead time yet for us to track these things.

Posted: **Fri Jan 13, 2023 9:20 am**

I just read this post on FB from a meteorologist from Toledo. Thought I would share. Let's move to Toledo.

Meterologist Ross Ellet

*Winter Is Far From Over*
It always amazes me how many people are ready to write winter's obituary by early to mid January each winter season. The worst of our winter season rarely comes before this date and that trend has accelerated in recent decades. Our pattern is similar to both last year and 2021. So lets review what happened then. December 2020, Dec 2021, and last December brought roughly 2-4" of snow total for the entire month. All 3 years brought little to no snow in the 1st half of January. So what happened after January 15th? January of 2021 (which is our most similar analog year) we ended up with 34" of snow the rest of the season (most in February). Last year we ended up with 26" of snow (again most in February). 2007-2008 is another winter with a similar pattern to this year. We did get some more snow in December that year, but January turned very warm with limited snow. The second half of the season produced 45" of snowfall. All of those examples brought some very cold weather starting in late January and in February as well. While the pattern isn't an exact repeat of the back to back record breaking winters in the 2010s, folks were still writing winter's obituary during the January thaws. We had no clue how bad things were going to get. 2014 brought an additional 50" of snowfall. 2015 really sticks out in my mind. At this time of the winter, I kept hearing, "I thought this was going to be a bad winter?"...well...winter wasn't over. That February was the 2nd coldest month ever recorded in Toledo, and we picked up another 33" of snowfall to go with it.

So history suggests the weather pattern will likely flip, but what about the weather maps? Well they all show the exact same thing. Take a look at the image below. Computer models torch us with very warm conditions next week. After that they show cold advancing west to east across the country in the last week of January. They also show widespread cold in the first 10-days of February too. History and computer modeling all show the same story and they have been showing it for about 2 weeks. That doesn't mean it will happen...but there is a lot more evidence for cold & snow than against it.

I don't know exactly what this winter will hold between now and the finish line...no human being does. Even if the pattern is great for snow, that doesn't always mean we get hit by a big snowstorm. What I do know is that the weather pattern is going to shift towards that favorable pattern once we get beyond the next 10-14 days that still look very warm. How will we view this winter in a few months? None of us know yet, but we are just nearing mile 7 or 8 of this 26.2 marathon race we call winter. In the marathon's that I have run in the past, I am usually feeling great and over confident about how the race will go and end up around mile 7 or 8. Every single time, my perspective was different once I crossed that finish line.

Posted: **Fri Jan 13, 2023 9:28 am**

That's a great post by that Toledo Met. Thanks JP for sharing that! I posted several pages back CVG's stats in Feb the last few winters and Feb of '21 was the 2nd snowiest Feb on record. The last 2 Feb's have produced those massive sleet storms too. Feb has had the biggest storms of the winter season for us the last 2 years. We shall see what this Feb holds when we get closer.

Posted: **Fri Jan 13, 2023 9:33 am**

Seeing a few flurries floating by here. Radar NW of us out in IND showing some better coverage now developing so we'll see... probably won't stick much but at least it will look and feel like January today!

Absolute Vorticity

January 2023 Weather Discussion

Re: January 2023 Weather Discussion

Re: January 2023 Weather Discussion

Re: January 2023 Weather Discussion

Re: January 2023 Weather Discussion

Re: January 2023 Weather Discussion

Re: January 2023 Weather Discussion

Re: January 2023 Weather Discussion

Re: January 2023 Weather Discussion

Re: January 2023 Weather Discussion

Re: January 2023 Weather Discussion

Re: January 2023 Weather Discussion

Re: January 2023 Weather Discussion

Re: January 2023 Weather Discussion

Re: January 2023 Weather Discussion

Re: January 2023 Weather Discussion

Re: January 2023 Weather Discussion

Re: January 2023 Weather Discussion

Re: January 2023 Weather Discussion

Re: January 2023 Weather Discussion

Re: January 2023 Weather Discussion

Re: January 2023 Weather Discussion

Re: January 2023 Weather Discussion

Re: January 2023 Weather Discussion

Re: January 2023 Weather Discussion

Re: January 2023 Weather Discussion