Absolute Vorticity

Posted: **Thu Dec 15, 2022 10:25 am**

I found this little gem online. It's a comparison of the 0Z EPS mean with the 6Z EPS mean at 500 MB centered on Tues night next week. Note how the 6Z run has a stronger piece of energy in Canada with stronger blocking over the top and a stronger PNA ridge too. Hope too see this trend continue for a few more days.

EPS6Zvs0Z.gif

Posted: **Thu Dec 15, 2022 10:29 am**

Holy smokes @ that Snowtalk vid!!!! This is going to be an interesting week for certain! Will I get to watch Where Eagles Dare before Christmas this year???? Die Hard 2??? love reading all the ideas from all you guys, keep it up, and Merry Christmas/Happy Holidays to all my AV friends and Fam!

Posted: **Thu Dec 15, 2022 11:05 am**

House of Cards wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 10:29 am Holy smokes @ that Snowtalk vid!!!! This is going to be an interesting week for certain! Will I get to watch Where Eagles Dare before Christmas this year???? Die Hard 2??? love reading all the ideas from all you guys, keep it up, and Merry Christmas/Happy Holidays to all my AV friends and Fam!

Merry Christmas Dave to you and your family! It's going to be fun indeed! Check out the new 12Z GFS coming in. It keeps trending in such a way that it's trying to bring that weak wave idea for early next week back from the dead with each successive run. *Paging Tim*

This is even before Thurs / Friday's system.

Posted: **Thu Dec 15, 2022 11:07 am**

House of Cards wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 10:29 am Holy smokes @ that Snowtalk vid!!!! This is going to be an interesting week for certain! Will I get to watch Where Eagles Dare before Christmas this year???? Die Hard 2??? love reading all the ideas from all you guys, keep it up, and Merry Christmas/Happy Holidays to all my AV friends and Fam!

Hey Dave always glad to see you posting. Hope you and your family have a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year. Please post more often.

Posted: **Thu Dec 15, 2022 11:09 am**

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 11:05 am
House of Cards wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 10:29 am Holy smokes @ that Snowtalk vid!!!! This is going to be an interesting week for certain! Will I get to watch Where Eagles Dare before Christmas this year???? Die Hard 2??? love reading all the ideas from all you guys, keep it up, and Merry Christmas/Happy Holidays to all my AV friends and Fam!
Merry Christmas Dave to you and your family! It's going to be fun indeed! Check out the new 12Z GFS coming in. It keeps trending in such a way that it's trying to bring that weak wave idea for early next week back from the dead with each successive run. *Paging Tim* This is even before Thurs / Friday's system.

Hey Les and you made me look at the latest model run. I could be dead wrong but I have just seen this so many times in the past that I had to add in my forecast. See that is what happens when you are old because you have seen it all lol

Posted: **Thu Dec 15, 2022 11:13 am**

Les I also saw where the gfs is bringing in the colder air faster as well and that is not what I saw. Really I was expecting this small system about 24 hours earlier that worried somewhat to begin but I still thought it would form.

Posted: **Thu Dec 15, 2022 11:13 am**

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 11:09 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 11:05 am
House of Cards wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 10:29 am Holy smokes @ that Snowtalk vid!!!! This is going to be an interesting week for certain! Will I get to watch Where Eagles Dare before Christmas this year???? Die Hard 2??? love reading all the ideas from all you guys, keep it up, and Merry Christmas/Happy Holidays to all my AV friends and Fam!
Merry Christmas Dave to you and your family! It's going to be fun indeed! Check out the new 12Z GFS coming in. It keeps trending in such a way that it's trying to bring that weak wave idea for early next week back from the dead with each successive run. *Paging Tim* This is even before Thurs / Friday's system.
Hey Les and you made me look at the latest model run. I could be dead wrong but I have just seen this so many times in the past that I had to add in my forecast. See that is what happens when you are old because you have seen it all lol

Granted the end result is still dry on this run, but it's still worth watching for some light precip should the timing and wave spacing continue to improve. Again as we both have said, this isn't a huge deal in terms of sensible weather but as far as forecast accuracy goes, it's more of a bigger deal as far as that is concerned.

Posted: **Thu Dec 15, 2022 11:15 am**

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 11:13 am Les I also saw where the gfs is bringing in the colder air faster as well and that is not what I saw. Really I was expecting this small system about 24 hours earlier that worried somewhat to begin but I still thought it would form.

You're right... the GFS continues to not only be stronger with the arctic high but it also is faster dropping it in as well. Not sure what implications that would have for the end of next week but it is something to note.

Posted: **Thu Dec 15, 2022 11:18 am**

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 11:15 am
tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 11:13 am Les I also saw where the gfs is bringing in the colder air faster as well and that is not what I saw. Really I was expecting this small system about 24 hours earlier that worried somewhat to begin but I still thought it would form.
You're right... the GFS continues to not only be stronger with the arctic high but it also is faster dropping it in as well. Not sure what implications that would have for the end of next week but it is something to note.

Going to watch the cmc this afternoon as it was rather close to the gfs over the past few runs. I always worry the gfs just moves systems to fast but with a strong arctic high you must look and say wow that could happen. Lets see if the cmc stays close to the gfs or goes back to its buddy the Euro

Posted: **Thu Dec 15, 2022 11:19 am**

Will be back later but interesting to say the least and should be on after 2pm or so.

Posted: **Thu Dec 15, 2022 11:22 am**

The early next week "weak wave" system is the table setter for what happens on Thurs / Fri. The southern low works thru the Gulf and is now located off the SE Coast. it is this low that we want to be close to the coast and we also want it to intensify like the Euro showed so that the arctic front slows down and the wave along it can amplify.

This run of the 12Z GFS should be a much better result! PNA ridge is more stout and in a better spot along the West Coast where the 6Z run had the ridge not as stout and more inland. Also, the low off the SE Coast is closer to the coast on this run vs 6Z. Wonderful trends I am seeing here folks!

Posted: **Thu Dec 15, 2022 11:28 am**

So close on this run but clearly you can easily see a step towards what the CMC and Euro have been showing. Speed up the GFS's processes by 6-12 hours and it's a big dog for us. Seriously...

Posted: **Thu Dec 15, 2022 11:32 am**

12Z Canadian took a step in the wrong direction and it kind of pulled a 6Z GFS solution. Because of a bad Pacific and a system crashing into the Pacific NW, we don't get that PNA ridge to spike so the vort max coming out of Canada doesn't dig very much and it's more of an open wave as a result versus a closed 500 MB Low. That's the difference right there between very little and breaking out the shovels. It's going to depend on the Pacific looking good for the down stream trough to amplify the way we want it to for good snows.

Posted: **Thu Dec 15, 2022 11:37 am**

The 12z GFS says that the deep south will see a white Christmas. I guess that would have to be a plausible scenario with this kind of cold air. Suppress everything to the south. Just one run though. If it shows this on Sunday then that could be a problem. The models will probably be all over the place with next week's storm the next several days.

Posted: **Thu Dec 15, 2022 11:42 am**

dce wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 11:37 am The 12z GFS says that the deep south will see a white Christmas. I guess that would have to be a plausible scenario with this kind of cold air. Suppress everything to the south. Just one run though. If it shows this on Sunday then that could be a problem. The models will probably be all over the place with next week's storm the next several days.

Lots more changes to come... hopefully for the better. It's close, this set up is oh so close. Praying for a good looking Pacific and I think the rest of it will take care of itself.

Posted: **Thu Dec 15, 2022 12:28 pm**

Lester I didn't mean to be so rude to you yesterday in my post. I know you were just summarizing what the model was showing. I appreciate that and all you contribute here so I apologize.
Getting more sleet then snow here currently. it started right around 9 am. expecting 2-4" or so, will keep you updated... winters on !

Posted: **Thu Dec 15, 2022 1:03 pm**

Can someone remind me what times the models run?
Euro
GFS
CMC

Posted: **Thu Dec 15, 2022 1:14 pm**

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 12:28 pm Lester I didn't mean to be so rude to you yesterday in my post. I know you were just summarizing what the model was showing. I appreciate that and all you contribute here so I apologize.
Getting more sleet then snow here currently. it started right around 9 am. expecting 2-4" or so, will keep you updated... winters on !

It's all good Charles. No hard feelings man!

I shouldn't have reacted the way I did either since two wrongs don't make a right. so I apologize for my behavior as well.

Anyway... it is sure looking interesting for your area the next few weeks. Lot of potential for New England!

Posted: **Thu Dec 15, 2022 1:17 pm**

mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 1:03 pm Can someone remind me what times the models run?
Euro 1pm
GFS 10:30am
CMC 11am
NAM 9am

Responses are in red and they will be for the 12Z runs. Time is EST of course.

Posted: **Thu Dec 15, 2022 1:18 pm**

I looked at the 12Z GEFS members for Thurs / Fri and about 3 or 4 are very light events to nothing at all. 3 or 4 have that big dog look and the rest are in between. This is out of 20 members.

Posted: **Thu Dec 15, 2022 1:48 pm**

Saw Ryan Maue post the 12z GFS snow map and had to go look at it myself. Yikes. Honestly, I love where we are sitting 8 days out, even though we're currently sitting in a donut on that map.

Euro showing the weak low at 174 that the GFS abandoned yesterday and shows hints of today, but MUCH slower with it (like 48 hours). It transfers the energy and hands it off to the primary east coast low around 186 rather developing two systems several days apart. It's actually not a bad solution for us. No big snow but a light, cold snow. Where and when does that transfer take place? Who knows, but we could definitely get a few inches out of it even if it sits as is.

Posted: **Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:00 pm**

The big difference that I see between the 0Z Euro and 12z Euro to me is the Pacific. A more amplified ridge over the West Coast allows the trough to dig more. On the 12Z run, we don't see as much digging so a lighter event. It's really that simple. I agree with you Jacob that I like were we sit too. If the ridge out West is located in the right spot (along the coast) and is more amplified then the down stream trough will be bigger and more NW so when that hand off to the East Coast does take place, it's slower and the EC Low is more inland vs out to sea so we get in on the backside snows more. Since we didn't have as much of a dig on the 12Z run, it's a weaker trough overall so when the hand off occurs the EC Low is also more East and we don't see the back side snows.

Posted: **Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:08 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:00 pm The big difference that I see between the 0Z Euro and 12z Euro to me is the Pacific. A more amplified ridge over the West Coast allows the trough to dig more. On the 12Z run, we don't see as much digging so a lighter event. It's really that simple. I agree with you Jacob that I like were we sit too. If the ridge out West is located in the right spot (along the coast) and is more amplified then the down stream trough will be bigger and more NW so when that hand off to the East Coast does take place, it's slower and the EC Low is more inland vs out to sea so we get in on the backside snows more. Since we didn't have as much of a dig on the 12Z run, it's a weaker trough overall so when the hand off occurs the EC Low is also more East and we don't see the back side snows.

Les have not looked at the cmc or euro but with your post I agree and the ridging along the west coast and up into Alaska has always been a worry for us not getting a bigger storm. Again way to early as these models are just adjusting to new info with the new pattern and that will continue for the next several days.

Posted: **Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:19 pm**

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:08 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:00 pm The big difference that I see between the 0Z Euro and 12z Euro to me is the Pacific. A more amplified ridge over the West Coast allows the trough to dig more. On the 12Z run, we don't see as much digging so a lighter event. It's really that simple. I agree with you Jacob that I like were we sit too. If the ridge out West is located in the right spot (along the coast) and is more amplified then the down stream trough will be bigger and more NW so when that hand off to the East Coast does take place, it's slower and the EC Low is more inland vs out to sea so we get in on the backside snows more. Since we didn't have as much of a dig on the 12Z run, it's a weaker trough overall so when the hand off occurs the EC Low is also more East and we don't see the back side snows.
Les have not looked at the cmc or euro but with your post I agree and the ridging along the west coast and up into Alaska has always been a worry for us not getting a bigger storm. Again way to early as these models are just adjusting to new info with the new pattern and that will continue for the next several days.

For a bigger snow that is what we are looking for Tim. Get that ridge amplified so the downstream trough can dig more so you get a slower solution overall to allow for more phasing and thus more backside snows. An easy concept, just need it to work out in reality.

Here's todays PNA forecast from the CPC and you can see that +PNA spike I keep talking about for later next week.

PNA.PNG

From an analog standpoint, CPC Superensemble centered on next Thurs has some really nice analog years listed in there.

610analog.off.gif

Posted: **Thu Dec 15, 2022 2:24 pm**

Les I love the map and you hit the nail on the head and we need that pna spike. It has been trying to head towards neutral and slightly positive but if we can get that spike at the correct time the chances go up for a bigger storm.

Absolute Vorticity

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