Ohio Valley Weather Observation & Discussion
https://absolutevorticity.com/
That's an avg of about 2.5" per hour! Nice... 
Correct Tim, that is usually the case. However, the STJ will wake up at times and also inject energy into the mix with a split jet stream flow. Recall that we had that massive drop in the SOI around the end of week 1 in Nov. It went back up, then dropped negative again briefly, then has since recovered once again. My point here is that when we see these drops in the SOI from time to time in this La Nina, I'm wondering if that's not a signal of the STJ waking up on occasion to produce a bigger storm system, should the proper phasing occur. Going to test this idea against the Thanksgiving time period to see if the bigger storm idea holds merit or not. Still keeping my rainy Thanksgiving, changing to snow on Black Friday idea going, until we can resolve some of these crazy model issues.tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Nov 18, 2022 10:40 am Les you got to wonder since most everything is neutral like the AO and NAO and PNA plus we are in the COD with the mjo that models are trying to figure what may be controlling the weather. Many times with La Nina the northern jet tends to visit more often while the STJ will wake up once in awhile and help out.
Great Post Les and both have the same forecasts. The western GOM is ready to be tapped but we just need the correct set up. Sure that could bring us heavy rain but we also can use the rain but don't want to damper folks that must traveltron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 18, 2022 10:47 amCorrect Tim, that is usually the case. However, the STJ will wake up at times and also inject energy into the mix with a split jet stream flow. Recall that we had that massive drop in the SOI around the end of week 1 in Nov. It went back up, then dropped negative again briefly, then has since recovered once again. My point here is that when we see these drops in the SOI from time to time in this La Nina, I'm wondering if that's not a signal of the STJ waking up on occasion to produce a bigger storm system, should the proper phasing occur. Going to test this idea against the Thanksgiving time period to see if the bigger storm idea holds merit or not. Still keeping my rainy Thanksgiving, changing to snow on Black Friday idea going, until we can resolve some of these crazy model issues.tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Nov 18, 2022 10:40 am Les you got to wonder since most everything is neutral like the AO and NAO and PNA plus we are in the COD with the mjo that models are trying to figure what may be controlling the weather. Many times with La Nina the northern jet tends to visit more often while the STJ will wake up once in awhile and help out.
What's going on fellers, Tim , I think you answered this question in your previous post. MJO driving the sled with its movement through all of 7 and sniffing 8 while dieing off Into COD leaving lasting effects from those phases , aka a sustained -EPO. But we know this influence will end soon, then this question will have to be answered againtpweather wrote: ↑Fri Nov 18, 2022 10:40 am Les you got to wonder since most everything is neutral like the AO and NAO and PNA plus we are in the COD with the mjo that models are trying to figure what may be controlling the weather. Many times with La Nina the northern jet tends to visit more often while the STJ will wake up once in awhile and help out.
Definitely a colder look today esp for Black Friday. Too bad the trough is too progressive on this run. Can't get anything to close off.
Agree, Looking at the 12Z GFS 500mb and jet streak , I would think it should have shown a stronger surface lowtpweather wrote: ↑Fri Nov 18, 2022 11:43 am Les much of what I see even for beyond next weekend I like but the Thanksgiving-Sat forecast where I expect a bigger storm and models either have not figured that out or I may be dead wrong and get mainly just another frontal passage and lighter precip totals.
I agree as well... the GFS was pretty fast and progressive with the pattern so it didn't show a stronger surface reflection as a result. I think if the GFS recognizes the -NAO that we should have for this system, then you'll see a stronger and slower system. A lot of the GEFS members have a slow moving and strong upper low / almost a cut off low that brings us rain to backside snow. OP GFS had that look the other day but bailed. I like the look from the GEFS and think it is a very likely solution. We shall see of course. But it's a solution I can buy given the pattern and -NAO.Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Nov 18, 2022 11:46 amAgree, Looking at the 12Z GFS 500mb and jet streak , I would think it should have shown a stronger surface lowtpweather wrote: ↑Fri Nov 18, 2022 11:43 am Les much of what I see even for beyond next weekend I like but the Thanksgiving-Sat forecast where I expect a bigger storm and models either have not figured that out or I may be dead wrong and get mainly just another frontal passage and lighter precip totals.
Les you have talking about the NAO all week and this really could be the key to the forecast and why models are having some problems. How negative will the NAO be during this period. The stronger negative the NAO goes the better shot that a system would more likely take off on the east coast. If we can get the NAO to be only slightly negative then the system itself imo can better organize further west. So I believe we are getting somewhere today and you have talked about the NAO all week and really how negative can make a big difference. After next weekend and heading into the first 2 weeks of Dec I still believe a positive AO will become the main player and we warm up. I know many reports of a -AO at this time but I just happen to be seeing things somewhat different.tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 18, 2022 12:48 pmI agree as well... the GFS was pretty fast and progressive with the pattern so it didn't show a stronger surface reflection as a result. I think if the GFS recognizes the -NAO that we should have for this system, then you'll see a stronger and slower system. A lot of the GEFS members have a slow moving and strong upper low / almost a cut off low that brings us rain to backside snow. OP GFS had that look the other day but bailed. I like the look from the GEFS and think it is a very likely solution. We shall see of course. But it's a solution I can buy given the pattern and -NAO.Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Nov 18, 2022 11:46 amAgree, Looking at the 12Z GFS 500mb and jet streak , I would think it should have shown a stronger surface lowtpweather wrote: ↑Fri Nov 18, 2022 11:43 am Les much of what I see even for beyond next weekend I like but the Thanksgiving-Sat forecast where I expect a bigger storm and models either have not figured that out or I may be dead wrong and get mainly just another frontal passage and lighter precip totals.
Model forecasts show the NAO and AO rising back towards neutral in early Dec but for the Thanksgiving time period system, we do get a brief dip into negative territory. Forecast models are only showing an Ensemble avg of -1 STD so it is a weak -NAO for this system.tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Nov 18, 2022 1:41 pmLes you have talking about the NAO all week and this really could be the key to the forecast and why models are having some problems. How negative will the NAO be during this period. The stronger negative the NAO goes the better shot that a system would more likely take off on the east coast. If we can get the NAO to be only slightly negative then the system itself imo can better organize further west. So I believe we are getting somewhere today and you have talked about the NAO all week and really how negative can make a big difference. After next weekend and heading into the first 2 weeks of Dec I still believe a positive AO will become the main player and we warm up. I know many reports of a -AO at this time but I just happen to be seeing things somewhat different.tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 18, 2022 12:48 pmI agree as well... the GFS was pretty fast and progressive with the pattern so it didn't show a stronger surface reflection as a result. I think if the GFS recognizes the -NAO that we should have for this system, then you'll see a stronger and slower system. A lot of the GEFS members have a slow moving and strong upper low / almost a cut off low that brings us rain to backside snow. OP GFS had that look the other day but bailed. I like the look from the GEFS and think it is a very likely solution. We shall see of course. But it's a solution I can buy given the pattern and -NAO.Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Nov 18, 2022 11:46 amAgree, Looking at the 12Z GFS 500mb and jet streak , I would think it should have shown a stronger surface lowtpweather wrote: ↑Fri Nov 18, 2022 11:43 am Les much of what I see even for beyond next weekend I like but the Thanksgiving-Sat forecast where I expect a bigger storm and models either have not figured that out or I may be dead wrong and get mainly just another frontal passage and lighter precip totals.
I really like that ideal Les. The Euro is starting have this explode late next week and believe all have thought that should happen. Timing is key and no doubt I see a rain to snow storm but how strong does this get is key.tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 18, 2022 1:45 pm 12Z Euro has an interesting solution where it develops a low off the SE Coast then phases it into the Thanksgiving system on Black Friday with a strong low along the East Coast. This would give us a rain to snow on the backside type of solution for Black Friday if correct. I still think the Euro is rushing things as was the GFS. I think Thanksgiving Day in the afternoon is when the rain should move in. Change to snow sometime on Black Friday with lingering flurries and snow showers winding down during the day Saturday. I've kind of been thinking of a time line like this for this particular system. Amounts of each p-type to be determined. What do you guys think of a scenario like that occurring?
The GFS will eventually slow down and show a more negatively tilted trough like what the Euro is doing.Les I agree and we know the gfs has a bias of moving to fast with systems. So rain developing Thanksgiving and then turning colder with snow or snow showers Friday and Saturday with today's models and pretty much what we have been calling for even with the model changing every 6-12 hours. This will also give us that last shot of cold before the pattern relaxes. Getting big storms happens quite often with a pattern change and this may be the case last next week. Again not all pattern changes have a big storm but got a feeling this one will.tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 18, 2022 1:53 pm Tim... The 12Z Euro really isn't that far off from my ideas honestly. It's not a bad look. Would love to see that trough go negative tilt just a few hours faster and Black Friday would get a little interesting.
I feel the same way. You always have to watch for big storms when a cold pattern comes as well as when it leaves.tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Nov 18, 2022 1:58 pmLes I agree and we know the gfs has a bias of moving to fast with systems. So rain developing Thanksgiving and then turning colder with snow or snow showers Friday and Saturday with today's models and pretty much what we have been calling for even with the model changing every 6-12 hours. This will also give us that last shot of cold before the pattern relaxes. Getting big storms happens quite often with a pattern change and this may be the case last next week. Again not all pattern changes have a big storm but got a feeling this one will.tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 18, 2022 1:53 pm Tim... The 12Z Euro really isn't that far off from my ideas honestly. It's not a bad look. Would love to see that trough go negative tilt just a few hours faster and Black Friday would get a little interesting.
Les,
The band settled south of that cam's location. 5 feet in Hamburg now!MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Fri Nov 18, 2022 5:29 pmLes,
Ma Nature must have applied her massive snowblower to that part of Buffalo because there's no white gold to behold currently on that cam.
