November 2022 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Wow! I checked the Watertown, NY airport obs and total QPF over the past 3 hours has been 0.73" with a temp in the 30-32 degree range. Thinking 7-8" in 3 hours is probably what they got out and are continuing to get. That's an avg of about 2.5" per hour! Nice...

[tron777]

Les you got to wonder since most everything is neutral like the AO and NAO and PNA plus we are in the COD with the mjo that models are trying to figure what may be controlling the weather. Many times with La Nina the northern jet tends to visit more often while the STJ will wake up once in awhile and help out.

Correct Tim, that is usually the case. However, the STJ will wake up at times and also inject energy into the mix with a split jet stream flow. Recall that we had that massive drop in the SOI around the end of week 1 in Nov. It went back up, then dropped negative again briefly, then has since recovered once again. My point here is that when we see these drops in the SOI from time to time in this La Nina, I'm wondering if that's not a signal of the STJ waking up on occasion to produce a bigger storm system, should the proper phasing occur. Going to test this idea against the Thanksgiving time period to see if the bigger storm idea holds merit or not. Still keeping my rainy Thanksgiving, changing to snow on Black Friday idea going, until we can resolve some of these crazy model issues.

[tpweather]

Les you got to wonder since most everything is neutral like the AO and NAO and PNA plus we are in the COD with the mjo that models are trying to figure what may be controlling the weather. Many times with La Nina the northern jet tends to visit more often while the STJ will wake up once in awhile and help out.

Correct Tim, that is usually the case. However, the STJ will wake up at times and also inject energy into the mix with a split jet stream flow. Recall that we had that massive drop in the SOI around the end of week 1 in Nov. It went back up, then dropped negative again briefly, then has since recovered once again. My point here is that when we see these drops in the SOI from time to time in this La Nina, I'm wondering if that's not a signal of the STJ waking up on occasion to produce a bigger storm system, should the proper phasing occur. Going to test this idea against the Thanksgiving time period to see if the bigger storm idea holds merit or not. Still keeping my rainy Thanksgiving, changing to snow on Black Friday idea going, until we can resolve some of these crazy model issues.

Great Post Les and both have the same forecasts. The western GOM is ready to be tapped but we just need the correct set up. Sure that could bring us heavy rain but we also can use the rain but don't want to damper folks that must travel

[Bgoney]

Les you got to wonder since most everything is neutral like the AO and NAO and PNA plus we are in the COD with the mjo that models are trying to figure what may be controlling the weather. Many times with La Nina the northern jet tends to visit more often while the STJ will wake up once in awhile and help out.

What's going on fellers, Tim , I think you answered this question in your previous post. MJO driving the sled with its movement through all of 7 and sniffing 8 while dieing off Into COD leaving lasting effects from those phases , aka a sustained -EPO. But we know this influence will end soon, then this question will have to be answered again

[tpweather]

Bgoney you are dead on. The latest and greatest gfs has a very interesting look and that is all I am going to say about that.

[tron777]

Bgoney you are dead on. The latest and greatest gfs has a very interesting look and that is all I am going to say about that.

Definitely a colder look today esp for Black Friday. Too bad the trough is too progressive on this run. Can't get anything to close off.

[tron777]

Canadian has went that direction also but it's a slower overall look with a transfer of the energy to an EC Low and we get wrap around snow showers out of the deal. This looks more like the 12Z GFS from yesterday.

[tpweather]

Les much of what I see even for beyond next weekend I like but the Thanksgiving-Sat forecast where I expect a bigger storm and models either have not figured that out or I may be dead wrong and get mainly just another frontal passage and lighter precip totals.

[Bgoney]

Les much of what I see even for beyond next weekend I like but the Thanksgiving-Sat forecast where I expect a bigger storm and models either have not figured that out or I may be dead wrong and get mainly just another frontal passage and lighter precip totals.

Agree, Looking at the 12Z GFS 500mb and jet streak , I would think it should have shown a stronger surface low

[Bgoney]

[tron777]

Les much of what I see even for beyond next weekend I like but the Thanksgiving-Sat forecast where I expect a bigger storm and models either have not figured that out or I may be dead wrong and get mainly just another frontal passage and lighter precip totals.

Agree, Looking at the 12Z GFS 500mb and jet streak , I would think it should have shown a stronger surface low

I agree as well... the GFS was pretty fast and progressive with the pattern so it didn't show a stronger surface reflection as a result. I think if the GFS recognizes the -NAO that we should have for this system, then you'll see a stronger and slower system. A lot of the GEFS members have a slow moving and strong upper low / almost a cut off low that brings us rain to backside snow. OP GFS had that look the other day but bailed. I like the look from the GEFS and think it is a very likely solution. We shall see of course. But it's a solution I can buy given the pattern and -NAO.

[tpweather]

Les much of what I see even for beyond next weekend I like but the Thanksgiving-Sat forecast where I expect a bigger storm and models either have not figured that out or I may be dead wrong and get mainly just another frontal passage and lighter precip totals.

Agree, Looking at the 12Z GFS 500mb and jet streak , I would think it should have shown a stronger surface low

I agree as well... the GFS was pretty fast and progressive with the pattern so it didn't show a stronger surface reflection as a result. I think if the GFS recognizes the -NAO that we should have for this system, then you'll see a stronger and slower system. A lot of the GEFS members have a slow moving and strong upper low / almost a cut off low that brings us rain to backside snow. OP GFS had that look the other day but bailed. I like the look from the GEFS and think it is a very likely solution. We shall see of course. But it's a solution I can buy given the pattern and -NAO.

Les you have talking about the NAO all week and this really could be the key to the forecast and why models are having some problems. How negative will the NAO be during this period. The stronger negative the NAO goes the better shot that a system would more likely take off on the east coast. If we can get the NAO to be only slightly negative then the system itself imo can better organize further west. So I believe we are getting somewhere today and you have talked about the NAO all week and really how negative can make a big difference. After next weekend and heading into the first 2 weeks of Dec I still believe a positive AO will become the main player and we warm up. I know many reports of a -AO at this time but I just happen to be seeing things somewhat different.

[tron777]

12Z Euro has an interesting solution where it develops a low off the SE Coast then phases it into the Thanksgiving system on Black Friday with a strong low along the East Coast. This would give us a rain to snow on the backside type of solution for Black Friday if correct. I still think the Euro is rushing things as was the GFS. I think Thanksgiving Day in the afternoon is when the rain should move in. Change to snow sometime on Black Friday with lingering flurries and snow showers winding down during the day Saturday. I've kind of been thinking of a time line like this for this particular system. Amounts of each p-type to be determined. What do you guys think of a scenario like that occurring?

[tron777]

Les much of what I see even for beyond next weekend I like but the Thanksgiving-Sat forecast where I expect a bigger storm and models either have not figured that out or I may be dead wrong and get mainly just another frontal passage and lighter precip totals.

Agree, Looking at the 12Z GFS 500mb and jet streak , I would think it should have shown a stronger surface low

I agree as well... the GFS was pretty fast and progressive with the pattern so it didn't show a stronger surface reflection as a result. I think if the GFS recognizes the -NAO that we should have for this system, then you'll see a stronger and slower system. A lot of the GEFS members have a slow moving and strong upper low / almost a cut off low that brings us rain to backside snow. OP GFS had that look the other day but bailed. I like the look from the GEFS and think it is a very likely solution. We shall see of course. But it's a solution I can buy given the pattern and -NAO.

Les you have talking about the NAO all week and this really could be the key to the forecast and why models are having some problems. How negative will the NAO be during this period. The stronger negative the NAO goes the better shot that a system would more likely take off on the east coast. If we can get the NAO to be only slightly negative then the system itself imo can better organize further west. So I believe we are getting somewhere today and you have talked about the NAO all week and really how negative can make a big difference. After next weekend and heading into the first 2 weeks of Dec I still believe a positive AO will become the main player and we warm up. I know many reports of a -AO at this time but I just happen to be seeing things somewhat different.

Model forecasts show the NAO and AO rising back towards neutral in early Dec but for the Thanksgiving time period system, we do get a brief dip into negative territory. Forecast models are only showing an Ensemble avg of -1 STD so it is a weak -NAO for this system.

[tpweather]

12Z Euro has an interesting solution where it develops a low off the SE Coast then phases it into the Thanksgiving system on Black Friday with a strong low along the East Coast. This would give us a rain to snow on the backside type of solution for Black Friday if correct. I still think the Euro is rushing things as was the GFS. I think Thanksgiving Day in the afternoon is when the rain should move in. Change to snow sometime on Black Friday with lingering flurries and snow showers winding down during the day Saturday. I've kind of been thinking of a time line like this for this particular system. Amounts of each p-type to be determined. What do you guys think of a scenario like that occurring?

I really like that ideal Les. The Euro is starting have this explode late next week and believe all have thought that should happen. Timing is key and no doubt I see a rain to snow storm but how strong does this get is key.

[tron777]

Tim... The 12Z Euro really isn't that far off from my ideas honestly. It's not a bad look. Would love to see that trough go negative tilt just a few hours faster and Black Friday would get a little interesting. The GFS will eventually slow down and show a more negatively tilted trough like what the Euro is doing.

[tron777]

The 12Z GEFS Mean basically takes a low into the OV on Thanksgiving than transfers its energy to an EC Low for Black Friday. I can buy that, It's just a different way of getting to what the Euro is showing. So, I think the GEFS and Euro are on to something today and the OP GFS I am thinking is incorrect of it's interpretation of a positively tilted trough. There should be enough of a -NAO to get the trough to go negative tilt. Even the Canadian today has a version of this. So we've actually seen some decent model agreement today. Whether or not this is the trend remains to be seen, but we've got to start somewhere.

[tpweather]

Tim... The 12Z Euro really isn't that far off from my ideas honestly. It's not a bad look. Would love to see that trough go negative tilt just a few hours faster and Black Friday would get a little interesting. The GFS will eventually slow down and show a more negatively tilted trough like what the Euro is doing.

Les I agree and we know the gfs has a bias of moving to fast with systems. So rain developing Thanksgiving and then turning colder with snow or snow showers Friday and Saturday with today's models and pretty much what we have been calling for even with the model changing every 6-12 hours. This will also give us that last shot of cold before the pattern relaxes. Getting big storms happens quite often with a pattern change and this may be the case last next week. Again not all pattern changes have a big storm but got a feeling this one will.

[tron777]

[tron777]

Tim... The 12Z Euro really isn't that far off from my ideas honestly. It's not a bad look. Would love to see that trough go negative tilt just a few hours faster and Black Friday would get a little interesting. The GFS will eventually slow down and show a more negatively tilted trough like what the Euro is doing.

Les I agree and we know the gfs has a bias of moving to fast with systems. So rain developing Thanksgiving and then turning colder with snow or snow showers Friday and Saturday with today's models and pretty much what we have been calling for even with the model changing every 6-12 hours. This will also give us that last shot of cold before the pattern relaxes. Getting big storms happens quite often with a pattern change and this may be the case last next week. Again not all pattern changes have a big storm but got a feeling this one will.

I feel the same way. You always have to watch for big storms when a cold pattern comes as well as when it leaves.

[tpweather]

Today I went against the grain of how I forecast and guess what it was wrong. Usually in the Nov-early Mar when weaker cold fronts come through I tend to stay with cloudiness the next day as models miss this quite often. Saying that when you get a nice shot of arctic air and that is what came through expect more sunshine. I predicted more clouds this morning and that is what happens when you go against how you forecast. Enough bashing myself lol as I do that plenty when making forecasts. I have some thoughts on Brian's video and again he does a great job but I may differ with him on a few things and need to do a little more research before I throw out those thoughts.

[tron777]

Despite the sun, temps are dropping behind the front from this morning. Down to 31 at CVG with a gusty west wind. We should have some clear skies tonight but the wind is in question. If the winds relax, 15 or lower is likely. 20 + otherwise. Another dry front Sat so breezy Sat night despite clear skies. Same deal with temps IMO should the winds stay up. Monday morning also 20 to 25, the last very cold morning as the airmass finally modifies.

[MVWxObserver]

LIVE Feed of the LES Event from Buffalo. It's just starting and radar already showing lighting getting ready to move in from the lake!

Les,

Ma Nature must have applied her massive snowblower to that part of Buffalo because there's no white gold to behold currently on that cam.

[Bgoney]

All I have to say to Buffalo'ns,, you lucky sob's, enjoy it!! It's snow .

[tron777]

LIVE Feed of the LES Event from Buffalo. It's just starting and radar already showing lighting getting ready to move in from the lake!

Les,

Ma Nature must have applied her massive snowblower to that part of Buffalo because there's no white gold to behold currently on that cam.

The band settled south of that cam's location. 5 feet in Hamburg now!