Absolute Vorticity

Sounding.. I'm not an expert at reading these.

Just saw this...

Status
New Event
Start & End Time
Mon 3:27 PM CDT - Mon 9:00 PM CDT
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0327 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2022

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Great Lakes and
Midwest this afternoon and tonight...

* LOCATIONS...
Ohio
Northern and Eastern Indiana
Southern Lower Michigan
Northeast Illinois
Southeast Wisconsin

* HAZARDS...
Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force
A couple of tornadoes
Isolated large hail up to baseball size

* SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the
northern Plains, and from portions of the Midwest into the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few
tornadoes are possible. Some of the winds could be significantly
severe (75+ mph) across parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley this
afternoon and tonight.

Preparedness actions...

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch
means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms
over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is
issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

&&

..Guyer.. 06/13/2022

big boom here now.

Darkening skies and a rumble of thunder here form that little cell that passed by to my north. Monster cell over IN we need to keep an eye on of course. NEW SPC UPDATE, check this out!

Wind probs

91 / 80 at CVG with a HI of 109 as of 4pm. I also hit 91 at 4pm... down to 88 currently.

AFD from the boys:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Convection is already developing and starting to move
east/southeast into the forecast area this afternoon.

Into the evening, Severe Thunderstorm Watch #354 is in effect
for parts of the region (west central Ohio, parts of the
Whitewater/Miami Valley, the Tri-State, parts of south central
Ohio and northeast Kentucky). Extreme instability is in place
across this area (4000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE). We are waiting to see
if the convection will form a cold pool and propagate southeast
with the 0-3 km shear. If this occurs, damaging winds will be
possible. Still, can not rule out large hail and an isolated
tornado if bowing structures develop. In addition, pwats over 2+
inches will result in efficient heavy rainfall which could
cause some flooding issues. This activity, per some CAMs, should
exit the region between 8 pm and 10 pm. Note: A Heat Advisory
is in effect for the far west/southwest. This may be cancelled
early should thunderstorms appreciably cool the low levels.

For tonight, models continue to indicate that yet another
convectively enhanced mid level disturbance will drop southeast
into the eastern Great Lakes. At the same time, a warm front
will try to pivot northeast. As a low level jet gets going, it
will try to feed unstable air into this feature. This may result
in an MCS or two (depending on CAM solutions). Right now, our
northern and northeast zones will have a threat of more severe
weather should these features move through. Damaging winds will
once again be the primary threat (could be significant). Still,
can not rule out large hail and an isolated tornado.
Additionally, efficient heavy rainfall will be possible that
could result in flooding issues. We will have to watch as some
models try to develop some training convection on the back of
the MCSs as we head into Tuesday morning. This may clip our
northeast zones. It will be very warm and muggy with lows in the
lower to mid 70s.

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 4:25 pm Sounding.. I'm not an expert at reading these.

Some good info my friend on how to do that.


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sounding ... index.html

MD about our watch that we currently have ongoing:


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1146.html

Looking at radar, check out NW Indiana. You can see some kind of a boundary and a storm has fired along it behind the current cluster we are watching over SE IN into SW OH.

T-storm warning now issued for a lot of folks...

New warning box went up right as I was capturing this.

Please report what is going on folks when it is safe to do so. Thanks!

CVG ended up topping out at 92 today. Well Tim... this does not bode well for our temp calls for Tues - Thurs.

We have those storms that have developed over southeast Indiana. These storms will dive southeast and maybe south because storms loves heat. This is a nice mcs that has just developed in the past few hours so even folks in the southwest area of our local forecast needs to watch out

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 5:25 pm CVG ended up topping out at 92 today. Well Tim... this does not bode well for our temp calls for Tues - Thurs.

I agree Les and hitting 92 with dew points over 80 is wild and if the dew points drop 5 degrees then actual temps will be higher. Again always need to see how the mcs affects the temps.

Fairfield, right now. Getting windy.

Just about everyone north of the River in the Tri-state is under a warning. Radar showing 70-80 mph winds aloft, (that does not mean it will make it to the ground!!) but I do feel 60-70 mph gusts are very possible for those that get in the path of this MCS. It may miss me to the East, not so sure yet I will get hit. Obv worth watching...

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 5:30 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 5:25 pm CVG ended up topping out at 92 today. Well Tim... this does not bode well for our temp calls for Tues - Thurs.

I agree Les and hitting 92 with dew points over 80 is wild and if the dew points drop 5 degrees then actual temps will be higher. Again always need to see how the mcs affects the temps.

Might get a record to fall... going to be close since today over performed.

Lighting starting to show up SW of the line.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 4:58 pm

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 4:25 pm Sounding.. I'm not an expert at reading these.

Some good info my friend on how to do that.


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sounding ... index.html

Great! I was actually looking for that!

Is this coming through right now the advertised event or is it still behind this?

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 5:37 pm Is this coming through right now the advertised event or is it still behind this?

Going to say yes... Keep your eyes open for the next several hours though. I'd say thru 9pm. The atmopshere has plenty of fuel for storms to work with. The second MCS that is nailing Milwaukee, WI right now should miss us to the NE and clip ILN's Northern and Eastern counties. Like Columbus for example.... maybe Dayton in the overnight period.

I agree Les and as we know besides the wrf model they have been awful. The hrrr which updates heavy hour just cannot figure this pattern out at all. Sad because it did well last week with a system. Remember these storms love to head towards the heat and though they are heading southeast they can develop further southwest as the cap on the atmosphere is much further to the west of the tri-state.

The HRRR is just horrible, not even catching onto reality. This screams of a data issue, maybe more than a model issue.