Page 23 of 78
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:09 am
by tron777
12Z GFS Text Data
Code: Select all
CVG
THU 06Z 03-FEB -0.8 2.3 1023 94 97 0.25 562 544
THU 12Z 03-FEB -3.6 0.6 1026 93 96 0.16 563 543
THU 18Z 03-FEB -4.9 0.6 1025 94 98 0.31 564 545
FRI 00Z 04-FEB -6.5 -2.5 1026 95 98 0.81 564 544
FRI 06Z 04-FEB -7.2 -3.7 1026 95 97 0.25 562 542
FRI 12Z 04-FEB -8.7 -4.8 1029 94 95 0.06 559 537
HAO
THU 06Z 03-FEB -2.0 1.5 1023 91 97 0.26 561 543
THU 12Z 03-FEB -4.4 -1.3 1027 94 98 0.17 562 541
THU 18Z 03-FEB -5.3 -1.9 1026 95 98 0.28 563 543
FRI 00Z 04-FEB -7.0 -3.4 1027 94 97 0.70 563 542
FRI 06Z 04-FEB -7.7 -4.5 1027 95 97 0.18 561 540
FRI 12Z 04-FEB -9.3 -5.5 1029 92 92 0.06 558 536
MGY
THU 06Z 03-FEB -2.8 1.0 1023 92 97 0.26 561 543
THU 12Z 03-FEB -4.9 -2.0 1027 93 97 0.17 562 541
THU 18Z 03-FEB -5.9 -2.8 1027 95 98 0.25 563 542
FRI 00Z 04-FEB -7.4 -3.9 1027 94 97 0.65 562 541
FRI 06Z 04-FEB -8.0 -4.9 1027 94 96 0.17 560 539
FRI 12Z 04-FEB -9.9 -5.7 1029 92 90 0.07 557 535
DAY
THU 06Z 03-FEB -4.0 -0.1 1024 93 96 0.28 560 541
THU 12Z 03-FEB -5.7 -3.3 1027 94 98 0.18 561 540
THU 18Z 03-FEB -6.3 -4.3 1028 94 98 0.25 562 541
FRI 00Z 04-FEB -7.7 -4.8 1028 94 97 0.52 562 540
FRI 06Z 04-FEB -8.5 -5.5 1028 94 96 0.13 559 538
FRI 12Z 04-FEB -10.8 -6.2 1030 91 85 0.06 557 534
CMH
THU 06Z 03-FEB -1.9 1.2 1023 92 98 0.23 561 543
THU 12Z 03-FEB -4.2 -2.0 1027 93 98 0.15 562 541
THU 18Z 03-FEB -5.3 -3.1 1027 95 98 0.19 563 542
FRI 00Z 04-FEB -7.1 -3.6 1027 95 98 0.66 562 541
FRI 06Z 04-FEB -8.4 -4.5 1027 94 96 0.25 560 540
FRI 12Z 04-FEB -9.7 -5.5 1028 93 94 0.11 558 536
FRI 18Z 04-FEB -6.0 -6.4 1029 89 53 0.01 555 533
FGX
THU 12Z 03-FEB 0.2 4.3 1024 95 75 0.13 566 547
THU 18Z 03-FEB -2.7 3.9 1022 95 99 0.28 566 549
FRI 00Z 04-FEB -4.1 1.6 1023 96 99 0.98 566 548
FRI 06Z 04-FEB -6.4 -0.2 1024 95 100 0.45 565 546
FRI 12Z 04-FEB -7.9 -2.7 1027 95 99 0.25 562 541
FRI 18Z 04-FEB -4.4 -4.4 1028 91 91 0.02 561 539
SAT 00Z 05-FEB -9.2 -5.6 1033 97 60 0.01 559 534
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:10 am
by winterstormjoe
Ouch, I hope that'll be it with the bitter cold for this winter, by poor bones can't take that cold anymore!
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:13 am
by tron777
FV3 Model - A short range model... no idea if it's good or bad. But the image I found looks awesome lol
FV3.jpg
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:15 am
by weatherbeast45107
tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:13 am
FV3 Model - A short range model... no idea if it's good or bad. But the image I found looks awesome lol
FV3.jpg
That is beautiful!!
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:18 am
by tron777
12Z GEFS solution also holding...
GEFSMean.png
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:24 am
by Blogsdon
tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:18 am
12Z GEFS solution also holding...
GEFSMean.png
Push that snow a little further east! I want it all! Lol
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:27 am
by Bgoney
cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 10:55 am
GFS still looking lovely for snow lovers.
That pesky 800 mb (780-820 ish) level will be key IMO in where the sleet/snow line setups. That will be the main mesoscale feature we will need to monitor when the storm hits to see where the sleet/snow line will be.
Yep, been about the only difference the last few runs between the models , QPF is similar, surface temps are similar, but the 800-850s are not with when they crash to 0c. GFS and NAM are set in their ways. I think the last EU run slightly went towards thE NAM, so anxiously awaiting to see which way the EU trends
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:30 am
by tron777
Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:27 am
cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 10:55 am
GFS still looking lovely for snow lovers.
That pesky 800 mb (780-820 ish) level will be key IMO in where the sleet/snow line setups. That will be the main mesoscale feature we will need to monitor when the storm hits to see where the sleet/snow line will be.
Yep, been about the only difference the last few runs between the models , QPF is similar, surface temps are similar, but the 800-850s are not with when they crash to 0c. GFS and NAM are set in their ways. I think the last EU run slightly went towards thE NAM, so anxiously awaiting to see which way the EU trends
I agree guys. We get the warm nose for more ice / sleet and less snow, or the arctic air wins out and we get more snow ala the GFS and past UKIE runs.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:34 am
by dce
The Canadian isn't budging either. Still Northwest with the snowshield.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:34 am
by tpweather
Thursday will be the ultimate nowcast. Short term try and figure out but can only do so much. To me is seeing temps drop well below the 32 degree mark with tons of moisture still falling. Many times you see these kind of storms and temps can stay in that 28-32 range but what I see with all the models is temps below 25 most of Thursday while precip is falling.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:36 am
by tpweather
dce wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:34 am
The Canadian isn't budging either. Still Northwest with the snowshield.
Yes it does which was expected after the rgem output but it does give a little more snow Friday than the gfs.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:40 am
by tron777
No need for me to post the CMC maps. Look at the RGEM to get the basic idea. So at this time, the warmest to coldest solutions are:
RGEM / CMC
NAM and Euro
GFS / UKMET (12Z run running now)
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:40 am
by Bgoney
tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:18 am
12Z GEFS solution also holding...
GEFSMean.png
Individual members sure looked more north than this as a whole
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:42 am
by dce
My concern is looking at things historically. How often does the cold air win out in these overriding events in our area? More often than not the warm air is undermodeled. If I where guessing I would say the southern extent of the snowfall accumulations will be cut down by the warm air. I really hope I'm wrong. The GFS caught onto something yesterday morning and hads not budged. It's been very consistent.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:45 am
by tpweather
Something to watch as well and starting overnight Wednesday with the second wave you will see a southwest to northeast band of precip. However as time goes on and the colder air sort of lays down on the north end you will start to see a more south to north band of precip. Where is that colder air to the north going to stop and again not sure how models could ever figure that out as mother nature will always trump the models. The system itself is not the strongest you will ever see but the amount of precip is pretty darn high for early February. So all in all models have been really good and not much in the way of changes since Sunday. Just the thermals are different and sometimes that is a bias of a model and sometimes certain models do better with the thermals.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:45 am
by dce
Well, the UKMET is not budging either.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:45 am
by tron777
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:47 am
by tpweather
dce wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:42 am
My concern is looking at things historically. How often does the cold air win out in these overriding events in our area? More often than not the warm air is undermodeled. If I where guessing I would say the southern extent of the snowfall accumulations will be cut down by the warm air. I really hope I'm wrong. The GFS caught onto something yesterday morning and hads not budged. It's been very consistent.
Doug this happens quite often and usually because the low pressure is getting stronger than predicted. That could happen in this case but so far models are keeping the low weaker so this is helping us if you want more in the way of winter weather
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:47 am
by tron777
I think models are similar overall with timing, temps and QPF output. This has probably already been posted. Do 850s crash harder like the GFS and UKIE or stay above zero longer like the NAM and CMC? Hoping the Euro edges towards the GFS of course. We'll see! That's the next one due up after 1pm.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:48 am
by cloudy72
NDFD output as of 16z:
NDFD snow.png
NDFD Freezing rain.png
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:50 am
by tpweather
Also watching the northern plains and upper midwest overnight and on Wednesday to see how the cold push of air is doing compared to what models are showing. This can help in adjusting the forecast.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:51 am
by tpweather
4/10ths of frz/rain does not sound like a lot but it really is. A heavy frz/rain can help with the ice conditions but getting a steady light frz/rain for several hours as temps drop is a worse case.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:55 am
by jjfight
dce wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:42 am
My concern is looking at things historically. How often does the cold air win out in these overriding events in our area? More often than not the warm air is undermodeled. If I where guessing I would say the southern extent of the snowfall accumulations will be cut down by the warm air. I really hope I'm wrong. The GFS caught onto something yesterday morning and hads not budged. It's been very consistent.
I was just talking to my brother about this. Historically, it just seems the warm air wins out. It's happened time after time. Let's hope this one is different!
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:55 am
by Bgoney
cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:48 am
NDFD output as of 16z:
NDFD snow.png
NDFD Freezing rain.png
That looks similar to ILNs snowmap
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:00 pm
by snowbo
An oldie but a goodie....