Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022

[tron777]

12Z GFS Text Data

Code: Select all

CVG

THU 06Z 03-FEB  -0.8     2.3    1023      94      97    0.25     562     544    
THU 12Z 03-FEB  -3.6     0.6    1026      93      96    0.16     563     543    
THU 18Z 03-FEB  -4.9     0.6    1025      94      98    0.31     564     545    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -6.5    -2.5    1026      95      98    0.81     564     544    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB  -7.2    -3.7    1026      95      97    0.25     562     542    
FRI 12Z 04-FEB  -8.7    -4.8    1029      94      95    0.06     559     537  

HAO

THU 06Z 03-FEB  -2.0     1.5    1023      91      97    0.26     561     543    
THU 12Z 03-FEB  -4.4    -1.3    1027      94      98    0.17     562     541    
THU 18Z 03-FEB  -5.3    -1.9    1026      95      98    0.28     563     543    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -7.0    -3.4    1027      94      97    0.70     563     542    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB  -7.7    -4.5    1027      95      97    0.18     561     540    
FRI 12Z 04-FEB  -9.3    -5.5    1029      92      92    0.06     558     536    

MGY

THU 06Z 03-FEB  -2.8     1.0    1023      92      97    0.26     561     543    
THU 12Z 03-FEB  -4.9    -2.0    1027      93      97    0.17     562     541    
THU 18Z 03-FEB  -5.9    -2.8    1027      95      98    0.25     563     542    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -7.4    -3.9    1027      94      97    0.65     562     541    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB  -8.0    -4.9    1027      94      96    0.17     560     539    
FRI 12Z 04-FEB  -9.9    -5.7    1029      92      90    0.07     557     535 

DAY

THU 06Z 03-FEB  -4.0    -0.1    1024      93      96    0.28     560     541    
THU 12Z 03-FEB  -5.7    -3.3    1027      94      98    0.18     561     540    
THU 18Z 03-FEB  -6.3    -4.3    1028      94      98    0.25     562     541    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -7.7    -4.8    1028      94      97    0.52     562     540    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB  -8.5    -5.5    1028      94      96    0.13     559     538    
FRI 12Z 04-FEB -10.8    -6.2    1030      91      85    0.06     557     534   

CMH

THU 06Z 03-FEB  -1.9     1.2    1023      92      98    0.23     561     543    
THU 12Z 03-FEB  -4.2    -2.0    1027      93      98    0.15     562     541    
THU 18Z 03-FEB  -5.3    -3.1    1027      95      98    0.19     563     542    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -7.1    -3.6    1027      95      98    0.66     562     541    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB  -8.4    -4.5    1027      94      96    0.25     560     540    
FRI 12Z 04-FEB  -9.7    -5.5    1028      93      94    0.11     558     536    
FRI 18Z 04-FEB  -6.0    -6.4    1029      89      53    0.01     555     533  

FGX

THU 12Z 03-FEB   0.2     4.3    1024      95      75    0.13     566     547    
THU 18Z 03-FEB  -2.7     3.9    1022      95      99    0.28     566     549    
FRI 00Z 04-FEB  -4.1     1.6    1023      96      99    0.98     566     548    
FRI 06Z 04-FEB  -6.4    -0.2    1024      95     100    0.45     565     546    
FRI 12Z 04-FEB  -7.9    -2.7    1027      95      99    0.25     562     541    
FRI 18Z 04-FEB  -4.4    -4.4    1028      91      91    0.02     561     539    
SAT 00Z 05-FEB  -9.2    -5.6    1033      97      60    0.01     559     534    

[winterstormjoe]

Ouch, I hope that'll be it with the bitter cold for this winter, by poor bones can't take that cold anymore!

[tron777]

FV3 Model - A short range model... no idea if it's good or bad. But the image I found looks awesome lol

FV3.jpg

[weatherbeast45107]

FV3 Model - A short range model... no idea if it's good or bad. But the image I found looks awesome lol


FV3.jpg

That is beautiful!!

[tron777]

12Z GEFS solution also holding...

GEFSMean.png

[Blogsdon]

12Z GEFS solution also holding...


GEFSMean.png

Push that snow a little further east! I want it all! Lol

[Bgoney]

GFS still looking lovely for snow lovers.

That pesky 800 mb (780-820 ish) level will be key IMO in where the sleet/snow line setups. That will be the main mesoscale feature we will need to monitor when the storm hits to see where the sleet/snow line will be.

Yep, been about the only difference the last few runs between the models , QPF is similar, surface temps are similar, but the 800-850s are not with when they crash to 0c. GFS and NAM are set in their ways. I think the last EU run slightly went towards thE NAM, so anxiously awaiting to see which way the EU trends

[tron777]

GFS still looking lovely for snow lovers.

That pesky 800 mb (780-820 ish) level will be key IMO in where the sleet/snow line setups. That will be the main mesoscale feature we will need to monitor when the storm hits to see where the sleet/snow line will be.

Yep, been about the only difference the last few runs between the models , QPF is similar, surface temps are similar, but the 800-850s are not with when they crash to 0c. GFS and NAM are set in their ways. I think the last EU run slightly went towards thE NAM, so anxiously awaiting to see which way the EU trends

I agree guys. We get the warm nose for more ice / sleet and less snow, or the arctic air wins out and we get more snow ala the GFS and past UKIE runs.

[dce]

The Canadian isn't budging either. Still Northwest with the snowshield.

[tpweather]

Thursday will be the ultimate nowcast. Short term try and figure out but can only do so much. To me is seeing temps drop well below the 32 degree mark with tons of moisture still falling. Many times you see these kind of storms and temps can stay in that 28-32 range but what I see with all the models is temps below 25 most of Thursday while precip is falling.

[tpweather]

The Canadian isn't budging either. Still Northwest with the snowshield.

Yes it does which was expected after the rgem output but it does give a little more snow Friday than the gfs.

[tron777]

No need for me to post the CMC maps. Look at the RGEM to get the basic idea. So at this time, the warmest to coldest solutions are:

RGEM / CMC
NAM and Euro
GFS / UKMET (12Z run running now)

[Bgoney]

12Z GEFS solution also holding...


GEFSMean.png

Individual members sure looked more north than this as a whole

[dce]

My concern is looking at things historically. How often does the cold air win out in these overriding events in our area? More often than not the warm air is undermodeled. If I where guessing I would say the southern extent of the snowfall accumulations will be cut down by the warm air. I really hope I'm wrong. The GFS caught onto something yesterday morning and hads not budged. It's been very consistent.

[tpweather]

Something to watch as well and starting overnight Wednesday with the second wave you will see a southwest to northeast band of precip. However as time goes on and the colder air sort of lays down on the north end you will start to see a more south to north band of precip. Where is that colder air to the north going to stop and again not sure how models could ever figure that out as mother nature will always trump the models. The system itself is not the strongest you will ever see but the amount of precip is pretty darn high for early February. So all in all models have been really good and not much in the way of changes since Sunday. Just the thermals are different and sometimes that is a bias of a model and sometimes certain models do better with the thermals.

[dce]

Well, the UKMET is not budging either.

[tron777]

12Z UKMET:

UKIE.png

[tpweather]

My concern is looking at things historically. How often does the cold air win out in these overriding events in our area? More often than not the warm air is undermodeled. If I where guessing I would say the southern extent of the snowfall accumulations will be cut down by the warm air. I really hope I'm wrong. The GFS caught onto something yesterday morning and hads not budged. It's been very consistent.

Doug this happens quite often and usually because the low pressure is getting stronger than predicted. That could happen in this case but so far models are keeping the low weaker so this is helping us if you want more in the way of winter weather

[tron777]

I think models are similar overall with timing, temps and QPF output. This has probably already been posted. Do 850s crash harder like the GFS and UKIE or stay above zero longer like the NAM and CMC? Hoping the Euro edges towards the GFS of course. We'll see! That's the next one due up after 1pm.

[cloudy72]

NDFD output as of 16z:

NDFD snow.png

NDFD Freezing rain.png

[tpweather]

Also watching the northern plains and upper midwest overnight and on Wednesday to see how the cold push of air is doing compared to what models are showing. This can help in adjusting the forecast.

[tpweather]

4/10ths of frz/rain does not sound like a lot but it really is. A heavy frz/rain can help with the ice conditions but getting a steady light frz/rain for several hours as temps drop is a worse case.

[jjfight]

My concern is looking at things historically. How often does the cold air win out in these overriding events in our area? More often than not the warm air is undermodeled. If I where guessing I would say the southern extent of the snowfall accumulations will be cut down by the warm air. I really hope I'm wrong. The GFS caught onto something yesterday morning and hads not budged. It's been very consistent.

I was just talking to my brother about this. Historically, it just seems the warm air wins out. It's happened time after time. Let's hope this one is different!

[Bgoney]

NDFD output as of 16z:


NDFD snow.png


NDFD Freezing rain.png

That looks similar to ILNs snowmap

[snowbo]

An oldie but a goodie....