Absolute Vorticity

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Feb 15, 2022 1:46 pm WOW , there is a lot going on next week. Quite the battle between the SE ridge and Arctic high

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 15, 2022 1:51 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Feb 15, 2022 1:46 pm WOW , there is a lot going on next week. Quite the battle between the SE ridge and Arctic high

Euro is much colder on this run with a big arctic high pressing in. Past runs have been warmer / wet like the GFS.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Feb 15, 2022 1:54 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 15, 2022 1:51 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Feb 15, 2022 1:46 pm WOW , there is a lot going on next week. Quite the battle between the SE ridge and Arctic high

Euro is much colder on this run with a big arctic high pressing in. Past runs have been warmer / wet like the GFS.

Les with the snow and cold still dominating western and central Canada and when the pna just stays neutral or a little positive we can get these cold spells to drop rather far south. Once you get into the USA the snow cover is not heavy for the northern and central plains so what affect will that have on these cold highs dipping southward. Plus like Bgoney mentioned the southeast ridge is starting its normal late Feb and early March northward trek so will these to fight it out and leave us with a mess.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Feb 15, 2022 5:05 pm Hey Les, and a beautiful day where some of the leftover snow and ice start to melt. Interesting system in many aspects. First of all the models are showing a good deal of moisture coming up from the GOM. Nothing strange there but its so dry to the south and west of here and you see all those red flag warnings. These are usually sent out when the land is dry and strong winds but the dew points are low and that is key part I see is dew points are just not that high and many places in the low 30's well to the south. So its going to take sometime to moisten up the atmosphere on Wednesday and when the rain finally arrives it will probably be light until Thursday. That is one reason I went a little lower with rain totals is some of the moisture is wasted on getting the atmosphere primed. Saying that probably going to be an narrow area that gets into the heavy rain for several hours and those totals can add up quickly. Still going .5-1 inch and probably a little low but I hope the lower totals work out for most folks. I agree on the winter side of the system and 1/2 of snow would be tops at best and probably the one thing to watch is some freezing of the sidewalks and maybe a few roads when the cold air comes in quickly. Usually we have enough time and wind to help dry the streets up before they freeze plus with the really warm temps ahead of the system it really helps surface temps but I have seen where it can still get a little slick say late Thursday night or early Friday morning but it will be spotty imo.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 16, 2022 6:29 am A lot of rainfall is coming our way for the rest of Feb. Hopefully we can get enough cold air involved later on this month for some wintry precip. If not, get out the boats! I was surprised to see the slight risk this far north since the low track keeps coming south closer to us instead of NW of us. At any rate, Bgoney's post has us covered perfectly with this next system. Get ready for the wind today and tomorrow, that is probably the bigger story to go along with the heavier rains tomorrow.