Absolute Vorticity

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 6:28 am Ugh, sorry about the double post, certainly don't need to see that stat twice

I believe you were just trying to double those totals lol

Good morning! Cold weather is the big story now thru the weekend. highs in the 20s today and Fri with lows in the teens. Highs near 32 this weekend with lows around 20. The weak clipper for Sun night doesn't look like as big deal for anyone really. North and NE sections have the best chance for flakes right now. Tues is the next region wide shot for snow. The question there is phase or no phase.

Cold is the key and getting cold with no snow in winter is not my type of fun. I believe the first clipper should stay north of us and hopefully well north as this gives us a better shot of a storm phasing around Tuesday of next week. Even without the phase some light snow would fall followed by you guessed it more cold weather.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 6:50 am Cold is the key and getting cold with no snow in winter is not my type of fun. I believe the first clipper should stay north of us and hopefully well north as this gives us a better shot of a storm phasing around Tuesday of next week. Even without the phase some light snow would fall followed by you guessed it more cold weather.

I agree. Great post Tim and I think you just mentioned a key part. We want Sunday to remain weak and skid by to the north so heights can rise higher ahead of Tues to slow things down to hopefully, allowing the the next clipper / STJ low to phase for a nice storm!

The overnight models for Tues still have the GFS being too fast with the northern stream, and the CMC is too dominant with the northern stream. Same issues as yesterday lol GEFS is showing more phased then unphased solutions. Precip type determines by how early the phasing occurs and how strong the low / westerly track it takes. The Euro / EPS which had a nice run yesterday afternoon, is back to showing the unphased solution again so just cold and dry. It's the furthest south model (Sun night clipper) bringing a band of light snow to I-70 where the other models keep it more up into N OH and Michigan so there's the difference as Tim noted. Need that Sun night clipper to be weak and north and the northern piece for Tues should slow down some.

BG SnowTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2022/01/20/snowta ... -blog-120/

First time I've taken a peak at the long range for almost a week. Yes we finish January with winterlike temps , bit what happens after?. Both Ensembles bring back a Dec type 500mb look the beginning of Feb. With Ridging south/near Aleutians , and troughing to the west coast. Right now , leaning to this 500mb pattern, at least for the first week of Feb. With the influence from the MJO being near the 7/8 parcel for an extended time waning, and now currently being a weak signal, we probably default to a more LaNina like state , even though it has weakened

12Z NAM brought the Sun clipper further south clipping CVG and points north with some light snow.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 9:41 am First time I've taken a peak at the long range for almost a week. Yes we finish January with winterlike temps , bit what happens after?. Both Ensembles bring back a Dec type 500mb look the beginning of Feb. With Ridging south/near Aleutians , and troughing to the west coast. Right now , leaning to this 500mb pattern, at least for the first week of Feb. With the influence from the MJO being near the 7/8 parcel for an extended time waning, and now currently being a weak signal, we probably default to a more LaNina like state , even though it has weakened

Been watching that too. Around 2/5 give or take, the pattern looks to revert back to a neutral or even -PNA with the trough west and ridging over the east. Winter may be taking a break for a part of Feb. This was expected in the seasonal outlooks with March coming back cold to give winter a final shot.

12Z RGEM is way south with the Sun clipper missing Ohio and bringing light snow to S IN and KY.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 10:32 am 12Z RGEM is way south with the Sun clipper missing Ohio and bringing light snow to S IN and KY.

That would fit right into the theme of 2021-22 winter!!

12Z GFS is north, keeping most of the snow along / N of I-70 for Sunday.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 10:55 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 10:32 am 12Z RGEM is way south with the Sun clipper missing Ohio and bringing light snow to S IN and KY.

That would fit right into the theme of 2021-22 winter!!

We want to get missed north to set us up better for Tues.

We might be seeing an earlier phase on the 12Z GFS for Tues, let's see the next few panels.

Not quite where we want it but it's getting there. Still plenty of time!

12Z Canadian is nice for the Metro for the Sun clipper but is superfast with the northern stream for Tues so no dice there. The British model today shows the northern stream outrunning the southern stream.

GEFS has the usual array of solutions for Tues:

So Les you are telling me we still have a chance lol. I agree the northern stream is moving fast and it usually does and we just need the southern stream to make friends one day.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 12:51 pm So Les you are telling me we still have a chance lol. I agree the northern stream is moving fast and it usually does and we just need the southern stream to make friends one day.

This far away, there's a chance. I give it 50/50.

On the Euro, CVG gets clipped Sunday more into Ohio with the light snow.

Euro has the northern stream way out running the STJ wave for Tues.

At CVG, the 18Z GFS has 0.06" QPF for the Sun clipper and 0.31" for Tues's partial phasing event. Brief rain to snow.

18Z Euro also coming in with 0.06" at CVG with the Sun clipper. DAY 0.08" and CMH 0.04" So a region wide duster perhaps?

A few mood flakes out there this morning but cold is the bigger story today. Still keep an eye on the Sun clipper for the area and Tues of next week in the phase or no phase storm idea.

Starting off with the Sun clipper, Most models show a band of 1-2" of snow falling mainly north of the river. A couple of models do show the band more over CVG Land. I think of the northern models are right CVG gets a dusting and 1-2" for N Cincy burbs and I-70 Crew. Switch that call around if the southern models are right. I am leaning towards the northern solutions right now.

For Tues, if the moisture and the cold front can meet up right, a band of snow is possible on the NW edge of the precip shield which is how the overnight guidance trended. ENS members have a few phased and amp'ed up members too so this system still needs to be watched. The Sun clipper is the main concern first.

I'm thinking of maybe starting a combo storm thread. What I mean is the Sun clipper and then the Tues storm are so close together that I might create 1 thread to cover both systems for discussion. One does impact the other. Tues system needs a bit more time to look into, but it is becoming apparent that accumulating snow on Sunday is likely esp North of the River.

NEW Storm thread has been created for the Sunday clipper and possible Tuesday phaser.

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