Re: Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion
Posted: Fri Sep 09, 2022 7:29 am
Earl has winds of 100 mph moving NE at 17. The Central ATL waves odds have dropped to 40% and the African wave has also dropped to 20%.
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Les we had that uptick while the mjo was in phase 2 but since it had come back to the COD and it looks like we are heading to a more quiet period. I would expect one more uptick in later September but this season will end up on the low end of tropical systems.
I was expecting to get Fiona and maybe the G storm too, but sheesh! This season sure has been a pathetic one. That is good news for the CONUS bad news for us weather folk.tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Sep 09, 2022 7:35 amLes we had that uptick while the mjo was in phase 2 but since it had come back to the COD and it looks like we are heading to a more quiet period. I would expect one more uptick in later September but this season will end up on the low end of tropical systems.
Just a update and the Gfs is still on the same path with the tropical system and the CMC has switched to the gfs point of view. Still waiting on the afternoon Euro. The pattern never seem to fit a path into New Orleans and again the CMC is not the best tropical model. My guess the Euro will be similar to yesterday which is really not that far off from the gfs. If this holds true then cooler air is not doubt headed this way and I can't wait. Again the Atlantic tropical season is going to be a bust for most forecasters this season.tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Sep 15, 2022 3:19 pm One system in the Atlantic today and the models having different timings and locations over the next 10 days of where the storm may go. GFS is furthest east and does not affect the mainland USA. The Euro ends up coming up through eastern Florida and the CMC heads towards New Orleans. At this point I have no ideal which is correct if any of them will be correct. Just from what I can tell with the pattern the Euro makes the most sense at this point but we are talking later next week.
Euro is in and this model has joined the other two in pushing the system well out to sea. So if this holds up the gfs will have been correct and that is usually the case in the hurricane season.tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Sep 16, 2022 1:22 pm Just want to add that the huge storm in the pacific should also have some downstream affects as well. Throwing very mild and wet weather that far north should help in pushing what cold air is near the poles south and I believe models will see that in the near future and that is why in about 10 days or so we could see a nice push of cool air headed this way.
Good Morning Les and after we had the first surge in early September when the mjo was in phase 2 we talked about a break before another uptick later in the month. So the forecast is working out perfect. So we are on the 6th named storm of the season. Most forecast were calling for around 14 or so named storms with 3 major hurricanes. Not going to be easy to hit 14 even with another surge. Concerning Puerto Rico and they have not updated the grid down there enough to handle these type of storms.tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:59 am Fiona is a major hurricane this morning with winds of 115 mph. Bermuda maybe impacted by this one after it lashes the Turks and Cacaos. A Cat 4 is expected (140 mph winds) before weakening as it rockets to the NE later on down the road.
Meanwhile, a wave in the N ATL out in no man's land may get a name with an 80% chance. Of more immediate concern is a wave in the S ATL approaching the S Islands. A 50% chance in the next 5 days. It is this system that models have in the Gulf in early October. So the tropics are far from over folks.
Good morning Tim! This is a good thing, seeing an uptick for the Atlantic Basin ACE (not so good for the folks impacted of course). Watching to see if there is a correlation with triple dip Nina's... busy tropics in October then the ensuing winter. Will save this talk for the winter thread. Anyway, MJO is on the COD right now if I recall, and it might come out weakly 4 - 5-, 6 in October. So right now if this pans out, the MJO is not really a driver for the next 2 weeks. But there is always an uptick in October before chances drop off significantly in November (although not unheard of it all to see Nov storms) I think this season shuts down after middle October anyway but it'll stay busy until then.tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Sep 20, 2022 8:09 amGood Morning Les and after we had the first surge in early September when the mjo was in phase 2 we talked about a break before another uptick later in the month. So the forecast is working out perfect. So we are on the 6th named storm of the season. Most forecast were calling for around 14 or so named storms with 3 major hurricanes. Not going to be easy to hit 14 even with another surge. Concerning Puerto Rico and they have not updated the grid down there enough to handle these type of storms.tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 20, 2022 7:59 am Fiona is a major hurricane this morning with winds of 115 mph. Bermuda maybe impacted by this one after it lashes the Turks and Cacaos. A Cat 4 is expected (140 mph winds) before weakening as it rockets to the NE later on down the road.
Meanwhile, a wave in the N ATL out in no man's land may get a name with an 80% chance. Of more immediate concern is a wave in the S ATL approaching the S Islands. A 50% chance in the next 5 days. It is this system that models have in the Gulf in early October. So the tropics are far from over folks.
Lots of mets are really latching onto that S Islands wave as a big player in the Gulf for next week. We shall see of course, but it is the peak of the season now so nothing unusual. Loooong ways off, but GFS currently has the system bombing out in the east central gulf then making landfall next Friday in the panhandle of FL (965 mb). Euro has major hurricane (954 mb) hitting near Naples FL Thursday morning. These tracks will change of course, but both models hint at something impactful along the eastern Gulf coast late next week.tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 7:36 am Fiona has winds of 130 moving N at 8. Gaston has winds of 65 mph moving NE at 16 and won't bother anyone. The wave approaching the S Islands now has an 80% chance in the next 5 days. We also have two new waves coming off of Africa. A 20% and 50% chance to develop respectively.
I agree Mike and it is that wave that is concerning to me. It should become Hermine in time. Odds are now up to 70 / 90 as of 11am.cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:19 amLots of mets are really latching onto that S Islands wave as a big player in the Gulf for next week. We shall see of course, but it is the peak of the season now so nothing unusual. Loooong ways off, but GFS currently has the system bombing out in the east central gulf then making landfall next Friday in the panhandle of FL (965 mb). Euro has major hurricane (954 mb) hitting near Naples FL Thursday morning. These tracks will change of course, but both models hint at something impactful along the eastern Gulf coast late next week.tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 7:36 am Fiona has winds of 130 moving N at 8. Gaston has winds of 65 mph moving NE at 16 and won't bother anyone. The wave approaching the S Islands now has an 80% chance in the next 5 days. We also have two new waves coming off of Africa. A 20% and 50% chance to develop respectively.
I have some friends, a former pastor of mine and his wife and also their daughter and her family from Hamilton, OH days who reside in Tampa.cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 10:19 amLots of mets are really latching onto that S Islands wave as a big player in the Gulf for next week. We shall see of course, but it is the peak of the season now so nothing unusual. Loooong ways off, but GFS currently has the system bombing out in the east central gulf then making landfall next Friday in the panhandle of FL (965 mb). Euro has major hurricane (954 mb) hitting near Naples FL Thursday morning. These tracks will change of course, but both models hint at something impactful along the eastern Gulf coast late next week.tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 21, 2022 7:36 am Fiona has winds of 130 moving N at 8. Gaston has winds of 65 mph moving NE at 16 and won't bother anyone. The wave approaching the S Islands now has an 80% chance in the next 5 days. We also have two new waves coming off of Africa. A 20% and 50% chance to develop respectively.