Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 26, 2021 11:33 am I'm not sure yet Tim if we'll be on the MCS Train or does the front sink far enough south where we are cool and dry. It's going to go one way or the other that is for sure.

Hey Les I believe that since some decent heat finally worked itself eastward and we are still in the heart of summer that I tend to have the front get held up. I know this summer so far the fronts have moved through and went pretty far south but I believe the pattern has changed and going into a more typical summer pattern for us. Again early August is usually very warm and dry which is why I get so excited when thinking about the upcoming fall season

I don't know... that upper low over Hudson's Bay... -EPO / -AO / -NAO pattern leads me to believe the cooler and drier pattern with the front to our SW has a good likelihood of occurring also. It is early too commit to either idea, but this is my early thinking at this time.

I don't know... that upper low over Hudson's Bay... -EPO / -AO / -NAO pattern leads me to believe the cooler and drier pattern with the front to our SW has a good likelihood of occurring also. It is early too commit to either idea, but this is my early thinking at this time.

12Z GFS stalls the front over the Dixie States for the first week of August. Wow... now talk about some refreshing air.

90 as of 2pm at CVG... Makes 3 for the month. Contest thread has been updated.

Euro has spotty rain chances, but does show the cooler pattern coming as well. Most models do just vary on the depth of the trough.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 26, 2021 12:13 pm I don't know... that upper low over Hudson's Bay... -EPO / -AO / -NAO pattern leads me to believe the cooler and drier pattern with the front to our SW has a good likelihood of occurring also. It is early too commit to either idea, but this is my early thinking at this time.

Great posts guy's, the models have been humping this winter-like 500mb pattern for a while , to start August. Should be an exciting time by August standards . Severe weather should be more numerous than usual , but tough to say if that is our region, midwest, or Tennessee Valley. I do expect near or above normal precip, with this pattern for us the first 10 days of the new month

CVG got to 91 and DAY 89 for Mon.

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Looking like another 90 to 93 degree type of day at CVG for today. Most likely tomorrow and perhaps even Thurs also thanks to the frontal boundary not getting close until late Thurs night or early Fri morning. It's a shame we can't get the front during peak heating or I'd be excited for big wind potential otherwise.

MCS Potential Thurs evening - Overnight? Overnight NAM says yes. GFS and Euro are mainly a swing and a miss to the east. We shall see... SPC has everyone under a marginal risk at this time. I'm worried about a miss north / east personally for Cincinnati. Dayton and esp Columbus... I'd keep one eye open on this to be honest.

Good Morning and though hot yesterday the dew points went down so not a horrible day at all. We will creep up on the dew points through Thursday and with temps in the low 90's and maybe mid 90's Thursday it will become miserable. The good thing is the heat and humidity is short-lived and though I thought the front would come back northward by the weekend looks to be held at bay. Les and Bgoney has led the way on the upcoming pattern which is similar to what we have seen this summer and I was expecting the heat to win out but looks very unlikely. How much rain we get is tough as we saw this past Sunday where some folks got a nice dose while others very little. Starting Friday through at least early next week the temps will probably average 5 degrees below normal which is great and the dew points should be nice as well so nighttime temps can head into the low 60's.

Good morning Tim.... early on I was totally with you on the heat for July and Aug, so I was also wrong in that regard. Not saying we won't see 90s in Aug, we'll probably see a handful like July, but for now, I see nothing coming to change up the current blocking schema at all. The oncoming La Nina will be interesting to see if it works in favor of keeping it going for the Fall and early winter, or if it ends up working against it.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 7:45 am MCS Potential Thurs evening - Overnight? Overnight NAM says yes. GFS and Euro are mainly a swing and a miss to the east. We shall see... SPC has everyone under a marginal risk at this time. I'm worried about a miss north / east personally for Cincinnati. Dayton and esp Columbus... I'd keep one eye open on this to be honest.

Good morning, Les! Yes Thursday afternoon/evening definitely has my interest! NAM is prob too high on the CAPE, but even GFS has CAPE in the 2000-3000 range with 4000 over in Indy. Wouldn't shock me to see a slight risk upgrade in later outlooks!

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 8:07 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 7:45 am MCS Potential Thurs evening - Overnight? Overnight NAM says yes. GFS and Euro are mainly a swing and a miss to the east. We shall see... SPC has everyone under a marginal risk at this time. I'm worried about a miss north / east personally for Cincinnati. Dayton and esp Columbus... I'd keep one eye open on this to be honest.

Good morning, Les! Yes Thursday afternoon/evening definitely has my interest! NAM is prob too high on the CAPE, but even GFS has CAPE in the 2000-3000 range with 4000 over in Indy. Wouldn't shock me to see a slight risk upgrade in later outlooks!

Good morning Mike. The track is my concern right now. We'll see how things look as time goes on but I favor I-70 corridor at this time.

BG StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/07/27/goode- ... -blog-727/

12Z NAM has round 1 missing us to the NE Thurs afternoon (minus CMH) but by late evening, a second round develops along the front (tail pipe as BG would say) and that is where our scattered strong to severe convection comes from.

We will see what happens, but the 12km NAM sure looks like a familiar scenario for us Dayton folk we have seen many times. Initial line forms to the north then misses to our east. Second line doesn't form until it passes us to the south. Hopefully it doesn't turn out that way, but getting that all-familiar dread feeling. CVG land would be fine as you would be impacted by the second line.

Good Afternoon and the lawn mowed again. 5 days apart so getting longer between mows but still thick and looks great. If we get some more rain later this week that should help for another 2 weeks and by then we start having the nights become longer. I know Brian mentioned some kind of drought but that happens almost every summer where we get a period that has little rainfall. This season that is happening for some folks but not all but if you get a 2-3 week period with little rain the crops can always use some water but it is by no means related to any long term drought.

My yard could use some rain to keep it green or the brown out will start soon.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 12:06 pm My yard could use some rain to keep it green or the brown out will start soon.

Hey Les and pretty wild that we live so close but the amount of rainfall difference between us has been quite a bit. This was probably the first time all year that the soil was not wet on top so yes a little drier but again the lawn is lush and no brown spots anywhere which is unusual for this time of year.

The local domes or micro climates in our area are impressive at times. Like that 10" of snow I received in Feb in just a few hours. That event was highly localized.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 1:16 pm The local domes or micro climates in our area are impressive at times. Like that 10" of snow I received in Feb in just a few hours. That event was highly localized.

Exactly. Got over 3 inches in Greenville yesterday and expecting temps over 100 possible later this week. Glad I am home

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 1:34 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 27, 2021 1:16 pm The local domes or micro climates in our area are impressive at times. Like that 10" of snow I received in Feb in just a few hours. That event was highly localized.

Exactly. Got over 3 inches in Greenville yesterday and expecting temps over 100 possible later this week. Glad I am home

Yeah, keep those 100s down there and to our West. Saw a model giving STL another 103 degree reading on Thursday.

89'ed so far as of 2pm, but I'd say 90+ is a lock thru Thursday.