Absolute Vorticity

Another big storm incoming... We're getting the bad wx here that you guys had yesterday. Tremendous lightning at the moment.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 19, 2021 8:59 pm Another big storm incoming... We're getting the bad wx here that you guys had yesterday. Tremendous lightning at the moment.

Hi Les,

I saw at the SPC site where there was a 77 mph gust at the Spirit of St Louis Airport!

Good Morning and today looks mainly dry but never take a isolated shower out of the forecast. Going to be hot and muggy. The front coming through Monday will bring another really good chance of heavy rains and maybe some severe weather. The air behind the front is great but will only around for a few days as more rain chances return by Friday and the weekend. Enjoy the rain though we are getting a little to much in some areas because once we hit July I believe those chances will start to dwindle. July imo is still looking like its going to be a hot month and that should extend into most of August. We go from mowing twice a week to once every 10 days by the middle of July.

Happy Father's Day to all of our AV Dad's out there! We're on our way home now should be back late this afternoon or so.

HAPPY FATHER'S DAY TO MY DAD AND TO ALL THE AV DADS!!

Currently 82 here in G'ville.

So we have all the CAPE today but composite indicies are low and really no trigger until later tonight. Still feel the best severe threat tomorrow is east of I-71.

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60% chance of issuance ...

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Good evening all! I'm back and had a chance to inspect things here from the storms. Talked to my neighbor and we were without power here while I was gone for over 24 hours due to downed power lines nearby catching on fire. Also a possible tornado near Camp Ernst Lake. Can anybody confirm that??? My neighbors aren't weather people like us so that is suspect to me unless one of you guys says otherwise of course.
Kris... talk to me! That is your neck of the woods. No damage here thank goodness other then some limbs and branches down like normal and some wash out as I thought would happen. Luckily my veggies and flowers are okay! I really thought my white half runner beans by the fence were going to be washed away. While some dirt did get washed out luckily the trail of water mainly was behind the plants along the fence so got really lucky! Tomorrow, glad I am off work to clean up and pick things up so I can mow in a couple of days while we are dry and pleasant once the lawn dries out a bit.

Looking like we get more storm chances though by Fri and the weekend and even on into the week after next as well. For the short term, all we need to worry about is tomorrow then we're good until Friday.

Hi Les,

Welcome back, Bro!

This could be what you said about Camp Ernst.

0132 UNK 1 ESE BURLINGTON BOONE KY 3902 8470 WIDESPREAD TREE DAMAGE THROUGHOUT HEBRON ... INCLUDING ALONG CAMP ERNST ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR. (ILN)

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sun Jun 20, 2021 6:25 pm Hi Les,

Welcome back, Bro!

This could be what you said about Camp Ernst.

0132 UNK 1 ESE BURLINGTON BOONE KY 3902 8470 WIDESPREAD TREE DAMAGE THROUGHOUT HEBRON ... INCLUDING ALONG CAMP ERNST ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR. (ILN)

Probably straight line wind damage then. Thank you Bro for digging that up for me.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 20, 2021 6:30 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sun Jun 20, 2021 6:25 pm Hi Les,

Welcome back, Bro!

This could be what you said about Camp Ernst.

0132 UNK 1 ESE BURLINGTON BOONE KY 3902 8470 WIDESPREAD TREE DAMAGE THROUGHOUT HEBRON ... INCLUDING ALONG CAMP ERNST ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR. (ILN)

Probably straight line wind damage then. Thank you Bro for digging that up for me.

You're quite welcome.

18Z NAM and GFS both agree with Mike's call for our SE counties SE of I-71 to receive the greatest chances for heavy rain and strong to severe storms tomorrow afternoon and evening with the next frontal system.

Some action west of an Amish region (Shipshewana, IN i.e.) that my folks and I visited in late May.

90% of AV Land should be quiet tonight. Tomorrow... all have storm chances but due to the timing of the front, I like Mike's call of SE of I-71 having the greatest risk for heavy rain and severe storms. Hopefully the models aren't wrong about the frontal zone timing.

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Welcome back Les!!!

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 20, 2021 8:34 pm Welcome back Les!!!

Thanks Mike!

Still liking my east of 71 call for any major action today. Think we will see some post frontal lighter rains here in the DAY-CVG area once the front moves through but that will be about it. NKY will be close on when the storms fire if you get into the action around that 1-3 pm timeframe or if it waits until it is east of you.

Good morning folks! Mike has the forecast for today well in hand. Storms over ILL / IN are fading away as they move in but will refire most likely close to us and become strong to severe for the SE counties. We shall see soon how this goes but the call looks good to me.

BG's StormTalk Video also seems to agree:

https://www.wave3.com/2021/06/21/goode- ... -blog-621/

After some decent weather Tues - Thurs, we're back into the humidity and storm chances again Fri, this weekend, and likely even into next week. We will need to see where the heavier rains set up. Flash flooding for some areas may become a problem once again the way it's looking to me. Pinpointing exactly where remains to be seen. We should end June and probably begin July with storminess. Hopefully for the pyro's on our forum, we won't have issues around the July 3-4th time frame when a lot of folks will be shooting them off (Like me on the 3rd lol). We'll see how it goes... we've got 10 days or so to figure it out.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 21, 2021 8:28 am Good morning folks! Mike has the forecast for today well in hand. Storms over ILL / IN are fading away as they move in but will refire most likely close to us and become strong to severe for the SE counties. We shall see soon how this goes but the call looks good to me.

BG's StormTalk Video also seems to agree:

https://www.wave3.com/2021/06/21/goode- ... -blog-621/

After some decent weather Tues - Thurs, we're back into the humidity and storm chances again Fri, this weekend, and likely even into next week. We will need to see where the heavier rains set up. Flash flooding for some areas may become a problem once again the way it's looking to me. Pinpointing exactly where remains to be seen. We should end June and probably begin July with storminess. Hopefully for the pyro's on our forum, we won't have issues around the July 3-4th time frame when a lot of folks will be shooting them off (Like me on the 3rd lol). We'll see how it goes... we've got 10 days or so to figure it out.

Agree, if we can hold off development until after noon things will get real interesting for 71 and east of there.

Strong signals for significant rains towards the end of the week and weekend throughout midwest and OV. MCS season looks to be in full swing , finally , with multiple clusters showing up in these regions late week and beyond