Absolute Vorticity

Good Morning and cold but not biting cold of recent days. Do we see fog and there is some northwest of here but locally it has that look that some fog will occur but again other weather conditions like wind can keep the fog from getting to thick. Still no changes in the forecast as Sunday we will be on the northern end of a system that forms on the front and heading southeast is the most likely spot for some snow accumulations and still expect an advisory at least for southeast Kentucky and maybe a little further northwest.

The early week system has both the Euro and Cmc having this system though its starting to throw precip further north as more info comes in. The gfs does not like the early week storm and has one later in the week. I thought this afternoon we should start all three become closer with their outcomes but so far they are just deciding which piece or pieces of energy they want to be the main storm.

Will watch the SREF today as well and Lexington is showing a mean of 1.06 for the system on Sunday and some showing over 3 inches. I believe its a step in the right direction and believe those totals will rise. Cvg shows less than a 1/4 inch but I do expect that to rise toward the 1 inch mark over the next 24 hours and again the further southeast you live the chances for accumulation is greater.

Looks like we'll avoid the fog for today. It's actually going to be a nice day compared to what we've been seeing and will be seeing upcoming. Some sunshine and the 40s for today so enjoy it! If we see the stronger trend for Sunday continue, then we may need to up our game for our SE counties for some light accum. That will be the bigger short term forecast challenge at this time. Tim's above post is a great discussion piece for this event! Tim.... 9Z SREF Plume has the mean for CVG now up to a 1/2" of snow. You mentioned LEX and their mean is 3/4". 1.12" mean at JKL in Eastern KY.

I ended up with exactly 1" from yesterday. it was actually a little more then i was expecting actually but its amazing how every storm is a 1 incher . call me 1inch Charlie because that's all I can manage to get around here

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2025 9:23 am I ended up with exactly 1" from yesterday. it was actually a little more then i was expecting actually but its amazing how every storm is a 1 incher . call me 1inch Charlie because that's all I can manage to get around here

Hopefully at some point you'll do better in the next month or so.

Question for you long range weather people, do you see this bitterly cold pattern relaxing going into February? I am debating weather or not I need to find some type of gym membership as I been training for a half marathon in May. So far I have managed by walking inside the local walmart. I do not want to get a treadmill as I do not like walking on them. I hate to loose my momentum lol

Pepper wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2025 10:41 am Question for you long range weather people, do you see this bitterly cold pattern relaxing going into February? I am debating weather or not I need to find some type of gym membership as I been training for a half marathon in May. So far I have managed by walking inside the local walmart. I do not want to get a treadmill as I do not like walking on them. I hate to loose my momentum lol

I do see the very cold pattern breaking down by the end of this month. We may still see shots of cold air but I do not think it'll be nearly as cold as to what January has provided. The pattern looks very active as well so rain and snow systems both will be on the table.

Thanks Les I was able to get out side with snow it is the bitterly cold that stops me.

The 12Z GFS continues to trend more towards the foreign models for Sunday as well as the Southern US early next week winter storm. As a result, the trends for Thurs and Fri's system for us continue to dwindle.

Pepper wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:19 am Thanks Les I was able to get out side with snow it is the bitterly cold that stops me.

I don't blame you Pepper. Monday - early Wed of next week is good hibernation weather!

I guess Walmart it is lol at our local one it is .34 miles around the outer isles in the store. I have seen others in there so I am not the only crazy one lol

37 at noon cvg

It looks like we are going to be in a cold and dry pattern next week unless something changes. Once the bitter cold relaxes, then we'll have a better chance at moisture return. I just hope it's more white then wet.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2025 1:09 pm It looks like we are going to be in a cold and dry pattern next week unless something changes. Once the bitter cold relaxes, then we'll have a better chance at moisture return. I just hope it's more white then wet.

Some models have caught up and now on the same page for most of next week. Models still showing the moisture on the upswing after that. Just not sure of the timing , as soon as next weekend or later?

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2025 1:32 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2025 1:09 pm It looks like we are going to be in a cold and dry pattern next week unless something changes. Once the bitter cold relaxes, then we'll have a better chance at moisture return. I just hope it's more white then wet.

Some models have caught up and now on the same page for most of next week. Models still showing the moisture on the upswing after that. Just not sure of the timing , as soon as next weekend or later?

Yeah... that's the best we can do for timing right now unfortunately. I think by the middle of next week as the cold starts to relax, models should be able to come into better focus.

I’ve got 42 here in Indian hill

40 as of 2pm at CVG.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2025 1:57 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2025 1:32 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2025 1:09 pm It looks like we are going to be in a cold and dry pattern next week unless something changes. Once the bitter cold relaxes, then we'll have a better chance at moisture return. I just hope it's more white then wet.

Some models have caught up and now on the same page for most of next week. Models still showing the moisture on the upswing after that. Just not sure of the timing , as soon as next weekend or later?

Yeah... that's the best we can do for timing right now unfortunately. I think by the middle of next week as the cold starts to relax, models should be able to come into better focus.

GFS is definitely all over the place after the end of next week showing cutters to over running boundaries. Disappointed in the trends for later next week! Oh well, with an active pattern moisture return coming, sounds good!

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2025 2:38 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2025 1:57 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2025 1:32 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2025 1:09 pm It looks like we are going to be in a cold and dry pattern next week unless something changes. Once the bitter cold relaxes, then we'll have a better chance at moisture return. I just hope it's more white then wet.

Some models have caught up and now on the same page for most of next week. Models still showing the moisture on the upswing after that. Just not sure of the timing , as soon as next weekend or later?

Yeah... that's the best we can do for timing right now unfortunately. I think by the middle of next week as the cold starts to relax, models should be able to come into better focus.

GFS is definitely all over the place after the end of next week showing cutters to over running boundaries. Disappointed in the trends for later next week! Oh well, with an active pattern moisture return coming, sounds good!

It's the best we can do Joe. When it's too cold to snow, it's too cold. When we warm up some, we'll have a better chance, Yes there is always a risk for rain or precip type issues but that's the normal name of the game for us most winters anyway.

Les, our beloved snowpack is taking a serious hit today and will take a bigger hit tonight with the rain.

It was fun seeing stay around for almost 2 weeks though. That hardly ever happens around here. Hope we can rebuild it in the next month.

The Euro brings the hammer down at the end of the month! Much different from the GFS, much more pronounced with the cold than the CMC which has it cold but nothing like this.

Yeah... that is correct Doug. The Euro has been the coldest model the most consistently for a long time now. I don't buy it. The EPS has a pronounced SE Ridge valid for the same time frame as the image you posted above from the OP Euro. I can see it being cold still, not as brutally cold as to what the Euro shows. It doesn't match the MJO which by then should either be in Phase 4 or the COD depending on the model you choose. I do think that if it does go thru 4-6 it will be a weak amplitude. I do not see a torch pattern at all. I do see warmer conditions though and an extremely active storm track. My concern will be for cutters and rainy systems if the SE Ridge is too strong. A weak SE ridge though is great centered off the Coast instead of near or inland. You get a better shot at Apps runners and TN Valley runners that way versus something cutting too far NW. At this time, I do not know what the predominant storm track will be. Both are on the table at this distance.

Looking way ahead.... I think the MJO has a chance to go back thru the favorable phases one more time before we call it a day and spring arrives. Late Feb and early March would have a wintry pattern for a couple of weeks or so. Then I think we move into severe wx season as the spring goes along. La Nina's are known for severe wx and tornadoes in the spring and early summer.

Folks... the models have been cold biased all season long. They are too cold at night as they screw up the wind or sky cover, etc. That's why the Sunday system has trended more NW and the Southern US system early next week. That's the reason why our Thurs / Fri system has dwindled. The GFS has been pretty bad at the longer term and in the medium range, the Euro has not been much better. I think the Canadian has been too amp'ed up with storm systems too, however, I will get it credit for storm recognition and storm evolution. It hasn't been awful all the time. It has scored a time or two. The NAM is just on a whole other planet right now and shouldn't even be looked at.

Pete1 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2025 3:19 pm Les, our beloved snowpack is taking a serious hit today and will take a bigger hit tonight with the rain.

It was fun seeing stay around for almost 2 weeks though. That hardly ever happens around here. Hope we can rebuild it in the next month.

I can see grassy patches in a few areas. It was fun while it lasted and it's been the longest stretch we've had since 2010, 15 years! WLWT posted this a couple of days ago on their FB Page:

See my last two posts on the last page...

Moving along, a Cold Weather Watch is in effect for the region.

...EXTREME COLD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING SOUTHERN OHIO, SOUTHEAST INDIANA, AND NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold temperatures as low as zero to 5 degrees
below zero and wind chill readings as low as 10 to 15 degrees
below zero are possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Indiana, northeast and northern
Kentucky, and central, south central, and southwest Ohio.

* WHEN...From Sunday night through Wednesday morning.

* IMPACTS...An extended period of very cold temperatures could cause
ruptured water pipes.