Absolute Vorticity

Posted: **Thu Sep 26, 2024 11:02 am**

105 mph as of the 11am advisory so a bit short of Cat 3 status still.

Posted: **Thu Sep 26, 2024 11:14 am**

11am update NHC. Another change, surprise , landfall looks about the same but a sharper turn through Tenn and staying a bit more south in northern Tennessee . That path could definitely change qpf further north. But every update has changes , so a very fluid forecast

IMG_2321.jpeg

Posted: **Thu Sep 26, 2024 11:19 am**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Sep 26, 2024 11:14 am 11am update NHC. Another change, surprise , landfall looks about the same but a sharper turn through Tenn and staying a bit more south in northern Tennessee . That path could definitely change qpf further north. But every update has changes , so a very fluid forecast

IMG_2321.jpeg Fun to watch the changes and just two days ago the upper system was expected to be in northeast Arkansas or southeast Missouri and then we moved to western Tn and western Ky and the latest update getting closer to central Tn. Still will give my final update by noon or so and again a rather wide range in totals especially in the area 50-75 either side of CVG.

Posted: **Thu Sep 26, 2024 11:27 am**

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Sep 26, 2024 11:19 am
Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Sep 26, 2024 11:14 am 11am update NHC. Another change, surprise , landfall looks about the same but a sharper turn through Tenn and staying a bit more south in northern Tennessee . That path could definitely change qpf further north. But every update has changes , so a very fluid forecast

IMG_2321.jpeg Fun to watch the changes and just two days ago the upper system was expected to be in northeast Arkansas or southeast Missouri and then we moved to western Tn and western Ky and the latest update getting closer to central Tn. Still will give my final update by noon or so and again a rather wide range in totals especially in the area 50-75 either side of CVG.

For sure. I mentioned earlier similarities to a winter forecast of qpf gradient zones and I don’t think that has changed

Posted: **Thu Sep 26, 2024 11:36 am**

Almost too much information and this is how I see this playing out and again these totals are through 1159 Sunday night. I do believe we will see a wind advisory for several hours on Friday locally and points south. The local area that I use is I-275 boundary around Cincinnati. Winds easily gust over 40 and I believe we see a period where that goes over 50mph

Rainfall totals and will break this up in the Ohio Valley.

Folks near the I-70 are should most likely be in the 1-2 inches of rainfall with higher totals the further south you live near I-70

Folks in the local area around Cincinnati I am going 2-4 inches with higher totals more likely once again the further south you live

Folks south of the local area going with 2-4 inches as well but some isolated places getting 5 inches.

Again a rare storm and things may change rapidly on Friday. Still believe flood watches in central and southern Ky will be issued later today and this could be extended north by Friday to include the local area.

Many hours of winds between 25-35 with gusts over 50 at times. Wind advisory very possible but not sure about a high wind warning and that could be an area further southeast where you may get a few hours of sunshine.

Love to hear other folks forecasts on here as this storm is another learning storm. How low does the pressure drop and most likely top 10 but can we get into that top 5 and yes that is still on the table.

Still believe landfall in Florida around 2a-3a as a Cat 4 with strongest winds around 115-120

Outages will happen but hopefully not widespread locally but folks in the southeast this could take days if not weeks to restore power.

Sure I am forgetting something and will gladly answer any questions or you can just tell the old man to quit posting lol.

Posted: **Thu Sep 26, 2024 12:07 pm**

GFS keeps the stronger low theme going on the new 12Z run and winds to 60 mph in gusts are still on the table if the model is correct of course. The stronger gusts again look to be near / S of the River. Tim... wonderful post and I like how you broke things down by region since there are multiple hazards to this storm and our forecast area will be seeing different impacts. The worst of the rain and wind will no doubt be the further south ones goes, lesser impacts as one goes north. We can all agree on that I think.

Posted: **Thu Sep 26, 2024 12:19 pm**

Hey Les this is most I have worked on a storm since last winter. Of course this is a love of mine and hopefully everyone stays safe. I did say work on the forecast but this is not work at all and it does get your mind going and since retirement so key to keep the brain moving. Les can't wait until this evening to hear your thoughts along with anybody on the forum. Rainfall should move in from east to west late afternoon or this evening as we start to see some of the rains that have been in the mountains move west. The rains from Helena really will be on Friday but overall its just a big push of moisture heading our way from the GOM.

Posted: **Thu Sep 26, 2024 12:35 pm**

I don't really have much to add Tim to what we've already been discussing. I like rainfall amounts of 1-3" for a good chunk of the area. 4"+ is certainly on table south of the river depending on how the track works out. The wind as I have been stating is concerning to me. I think 40-50 mph gusts are likely and an isolated gust to 60 mph south of the river is also on the table esp if the GFS is right. I think some power outages will occur as well. Let me be clear, this is no Ike from Sept of 2008.

Posted: **Thu Sep 26, 2024 1:09 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 26, 2024 12:35 pm I don't really have much to add Tim to what we've already been discussing. I like rainfall amounts of 1-3" for a good chunk of the area. 4"+ is certainly on table south of the river depending on how the track works out. The wind as I have been stating is concerning to me. I think 40-50 mph gusts are likely and an isolated gust to 60 mph south of the river is also on the table esp if the GFS is right. I think some power outages will occur as well. Let me be clear, this is no Ike from Sept of 2008.

I don’t have any changes from this morning, probably the biggest difference from me is the I70 amounts especially in and around the Columbus area where some amounts might be closer to a half inch. The Cbus area is a tough call

Posted: **Thu Sep 26, 2024 1:17 pm**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Sep 26, 2024 1:09 pm
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 26, 2024 12:35 pm I don't really have much to add Tim to what we've already been discussing. I like rainfall amounts of 1-3" for a good chunk of the area. 4"+ is certainly on table south of the river depending on how the track works out. The wind as I have been stating is concerning to me. I think 40-50 mph gusts are likely and an isolated gust to 60 mph south of the river is also on the table esp if the GFS is right. I think some power outages will occur as well. Let me be clear, this is no Ike from Sept of 2008.
I don’t have any changes from this morning, probably the biggest (small) difference from me is the I70 amounts especially in and around the Columbus area where some amounts might be closer to a half inch. The Cbus area is a tough call

Posted: **Thu Sep 26, 2024 1:33 pm**

Should start seeing additional watches later today. The Louisville has issue a wind advisory for Friday and believe CVG will probably go that way at sometime but not sure if it will cover the entire CVG forecast area. Still expect flood watches for central and southern Kentucky and I know its been dry for a few months and should be able to handle the rain but getting the heavy rain in quick bursts could promote this advisory. That also could be extended into northern Kentucky but that may not be issued until the overnight period. Severe weather and besides heavy rain and strong winds severe weather is low though if you get some sun in the afternoon a isolated tornado is possible but not expecting any widespread severe weather.

Saturday could be a preview of fall weather where its cloudy and rainy with temps no higher than the mid 60's. Sunday still some showers around but not as widespread

Posted: **Thu Sep 26, 2024 1:39 pm**

I think we'll get a Cat 3 on the 2pm advisory. It definitely has a more symmetrical eye on the latest satellite pics.

Posted: **Thu Sep 26, 2024 1:48 pm**

There's your wind advisory till midnight Friday.

Posted: **Thu Sep 26, 2024 1:53 pm**

Been cloudy all day but they are getting thicker and lowering in my hood. Also you can see the clouds moving from the southeast to northwest. So yes should start to see some rainfall later today though this is not directly with Helena and those rains on Friday.

Posted: **Thu Sep 26, 2024 1:55 pm**

110 mph now (Major is 111 mph) with a pressure of 959 MB. She's picking up speed too moving NNE at 16 mph. Definitely a large storm in size with a pressure that low. The impacts from this system will be very far reaching. A lot of the problem is the upper low has caused a lot of rain to fall already over the S Apps, GA, Carolinas, TN etc. long before Helene even gets here. Hope folks down there are prepared for big time flooding.

Edited post to add Helene's forward speed which is increasing as we expected.

Posted: **Thu Sep 26, 2024 1:56 pm**

snowbo wrote: ↑Thu Sep 26, 2024 1:48 pm There's your wind advisory till midnight Friday.

Glad they issued it! Here's the text:

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY
NIGHT...

* WHAT...East winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts between 45 and 55 mph
expected.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and southeast Indiana, northeast
and northern Kentucky, and central, south central, southwest, and
west central Ohio.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Friday to midnight EDT Friday Night.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree
limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Isolated higher wind gusts are possible.

Posted: **Thu Sep 26, 2024 2:09 pm**

Indy also on the wind advisory bandwagon. Okay part one of the advisories and lets see how long before the flood watches start showing up. Being dry for an extended period but still believe enough info to start issuing those as well

Posted: **Thu Sep 26, 2024 2:13 pm**

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Sep 26, 2024 2:09 pm Indy also on the wind advisory bandwagon. Okay part one of the advisories and lets see how long before the flood watches start showing up. Being dry for an extended period but still believe enough info to start issuing those as well

It won't surprise me Tim to see a flood watch issued at least S of the river. We got 2" the other day and another 2"+ certainly looks to be on the way. Leaves are falling too from the trees early, thanks to the drought, so I could see storm drains getting clogged causing urban and street flooding.

Posted: **Thu Sep 26, 2024 2:21 pm**

Tim... you mentioned a later landfall and you're going to be correct on that IMO. I am not quite late enough. It could be 11pm or 12am now. I am still expecting the center to be E of Tallahassee still.

Posted: **Thu Sep 26, 2024 2:28 pm**

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 26, 2024 2:21 pm Tim... you mentioned a later landfall and you're going to be correct on that IMO. I am not quite late enough. It could be 11pm or 12am now. I am still expecting the center to be E of Tallahassee still.

Hey Les the landfall could be between what both of us had predicted. Again not a big part of the storm but I just thought with the track further east and its such a large Hurricane it may take a few extra hours to get landfall. Starting to see quite a few tornado's with this system as well. This concerns me a little on Friday though nothing like today and if we see a tornado or two I expect those to the southeast of us.

Posted: **Thu Sep 26, 2024 2:30 pm**

NHC has updated the Hurricane to a Cat 3 in the past few minutes which is not a surprise. My guess they are updating more often as we near the landfall.

Posted: **Thu Sep 26, 2024 2:34 pm**

Rain totals in the Asheville,NC area have been so impressive and getting close to 10 inches and yes the Hurricane is still many hours away from them. With all the hills and mountains my guess its a total mess in the area.

Posted: **Thu Sep 26, 2024 2:36 pm**

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Sep 26, 2024 2:30 pm NHC has updated the Hurricane to a Cat 3 in the past few minutes which is not a surprise. My guess they are updating more often as we near the landfall.

I was just going to post this. A recent recon pass confirms this. Wow!

Posted: **Thu Sep 26, 2024 2:37 pm**

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Sep 26, 2024 2:34 pm Rain totals in the Asheville,NC area have been so impressive and getting close to 10 inches and yes the Hurricane is still many hours away from them. With all the hills and mountains my guess its a total mess in the area.

Yes Sir.... it'll be a mess over a large area in the S Apps and foothill areas.

Posted: **Thu Sep 26, 2024 2:40 pm**

Wow! From NWS Tallahassee:

Some 2 day totals nearing 12-16 inches of rain so far as estimated by radar across lower portions of the Apalachicola River Basin. More to come.

Absolute Vorticity

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