Absolute Vorticity

Good Afternoon and not bad outside if you get a breeze. Looked at the ground this morning and yes still wet from the heavy rains the other day. Just saw Brian's video and wonderful and it shows his concern for many chances for storms starting Sunday and lasting probably a week. That is unusual for late July and early August and with this being tropical moisture some big time totals are possible. Almost impossible to put a number on this kind of pattern because if you are unlucky my guess between 1-2 inches but if you hit several waves amounts can easily go over 4 inches and that may be low. So starting Sunday and lasting all the way through the following weekend daily chances of rain. This could no doubt be a drought buster kind of deal and that would be wonderful.

Brian had a little teaser about the fall and winter pattern and if its similar to the mcs pattern we may get in then I believe he was talking about a pattern in the winter where the clippers will be common place this winter.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jul 26, 2024 11:59 am Good Afternoon and not bad outside if you get a breeze. Looked at the ground this morning and yes still wet from the heavy rains the other day. Just saw Brian's video and wonderful and it shows his concern for many chances for storms starting Sunday and lasting probably a week. That is unusual for late July and early August and with this being tropical moisture some big time totals are possible. Almost impossible to put a number on this kind of pattern because if you are unlucky my guess between 1-2 inches but if you hit several waves amounts can easily go over 4 inches and that may be low. So starting Sunday and lasting all the way through the following weekend daily chances of rain. This could no doubt be a drought buster kind of deal and that would be wonderful.

Brian had a little teaser about the fall and winter pattern and if its similar to the mcs pattern we may get in then I believe he was talking about a pattern in the winter where the clippers will be common place this winter.

I welcome a pattern like that with open arms, Tim! It has been absent for a long time now. The polar jet typically is the dominant jet with a La Nina too esp if it is on the weaker side.

Back to the current weather and the new GFS run is coming in. The track of each MCS will differ with each model run but the chance for the entire CWA is there Sunday thru most of next week. All we can ask for is to have the chances and then let the chips fall where they may.

Going to watch the models this weekend especially in terms of rain totals. Each run they will have different totals and sometimes place the higher totals near us and then by the next run the higher totals may be east,west,north or south. Slow moving system for the Sunday/Monday event and then with the MCS'S for the remainder of the week and those will be much quicker moving through plus some very strong winds. Not expecting any severe weather except for some flooding with first system. 2-3 inches would be a nice amount next week especially if we can get several rounds to reach that total.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jul 26, 2024 12:58 pm Going to watch the models this weekend especially in terms of rain totals. Each run they will have different totals and sometimes place the higher totals near us and then by the next run the higher totals may be east,west,north or south. Slow moving system for the Sunday/Monday event and then with the MCS'S for the remainder of the week and those will be much quicker moving through plus some very strong winds. Not expecting any severe weather except for some flooding with first system. 2-3 inches would be a nice amount next week especially if we can get several rounds to reach that total.

I'd be thrilled with just an inch! But if you can get hit with multiple rounds then 2-3" could happen as you mentioned.

NE winds have brought the dew point down to 57 at CVG. Enjoy, as that will be gone soon.

Les, Have a nice and safe trip! That reminds me, I need to go to Jungle Jim's and get some fresh Walleye if it's in season?

Hopefully, we can get at least a couple inches of rain next week! My grass is greener these days but there are still some brown areas. Also, I hope that we at least see normal rainfall in Aug/Sep so that we see nice colors to the leaves this fall!

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Fri Jul 26, 2024 2:49 pm Les, Have a nice and safe trip! That reminds me, I need to go to Jungle Jim's and get some fresh Walleye if it's in season?

Hopefully, we can get at least a couple inches of rain next week! My grass is greener these days but there are still some brown areas. Also, I hope that we at least see normal rainfall in Aug/Sep so that we see nice colors to the leaves this fall!

Thanks Joe! It will take several inches of rain for my lawn to recover if it does at all this year.

Nice to have that northeast wind and was a little surprised those lower dews made it this far south. After next week which is very busy we will finally need to watch the southwest states to see if the monsoon season starts to act like normal. A tad late but nothing unheard of and hopefully a good season for those folks in that area. What happens to our area once that kicks in and usually but not always we see chances for the ridge out there to move further east and this would put us in a warm to hot section and less chance of rain until the tropics start to get active closer to us. So hopefully next week we are able to cash in on the needed rain as we may go a few weeks afterwards with less chances. The Bermuda Ridge and what is going on there and it has been sort of a strange season as the ridge has been strong at times and made it inland but with the amount of cold fronts this late spring and summer the high could never get a good foothold on the mainland. Once we start seeing the tropics ramp up this usually will strengthen the Bermuda High for a period of time but exactly where the position will be is something I have no answer for this early.

Yes I saw the mid 50 dews into our area and the low-mid 60's in central Kentucky and that is where I though we would be at this afternoon. The low 70's though not far away in southern Kentucky and those will be heading toward our area over the next 36-48 hours. So I missed the dew point by about 100 miles and that is not good lol or good in this case because it feels wonderful

CVG got to 86, DAY 82 and CMH 84 today.

Good Morning and very nice with the dew points down much further than I expected and further south and west. I thought with the return of moisture by Sunday morning we would have a chance of rain early on but with the drier air more expansive my guess it will be later in the day. Most of next week we have a chance of rain but dew points and warmer temps may give us a heat index most days in the 92-97 range but a day or two could exceed 100. How much rain is still the issue and could be quite the range as usual in mid-summer. Plenty of moisture heading this way and its from the tropics so we can get a quick inch in matter of a half an hour. I got 1.51 with one storm the other day and the moisture coming our way is deeper. Then do we see the MCS train coming and where will the tracks be located. Again these usually form later in day and then head east/southeast towards the heat. We are close to the main area but still must wait to see exactly how this plays out in the next few days. I have several outdoor plans next week and lets see if somehow I can dodge the storms. Enjoy today as it is beautiful but will get in the upper 80's but the humidity very nice for this time of year. Have a great weekend

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Jul 27, 2024 7:42 am Good Morning and very nice with the dew points down much further than I expected and further south and west. I thought with the return of moisture by Sunday morning we would have a chance of rain early on but with the drier air more expansive my guess it will be later in the day. Most of next week we have a chance of rain but dew points and warmer temps may give us a heat index most days in the 92-97 range but a day or two could exceed 100. How much rain is still the issue and could be quite the range as usual in mid-summer. Plenty of moisture heading this way and its from the tropics so we can get a quick inch in matter of a half an hour. I got 1.51 with one storm the other day and the moisture coming our way is deeper. Then do we see the MCS train coming and where will the tracks be located. Again these usually form later in day and then head east/southeast towards the heat. We are close to the main area but still must wait to see exactly how this plays out in the next few days. I have several outdoor plans next week and lets see if somehow I can dodge the storms. Enjoy today as it is beautiful but will get in the upper 80's but the humidity very nice for this time of year. Have a great weekend

CVG may get #3 89 today.

CVG reached 89 at 3:50PM.

Both CVG / CMH 89'ed and DAY 85 today.

Not much change from previous thoughts or from the models concerning upcoming rain chances for a good chunk of next week starting late tomorrow. Still looking like the best potential regionally (Dayton/cbus/cvg) we’ve had all summer for appreciable rain amounts for the week

Currently for Mon and Tues ...

Good Morning and yes today starts a very busy 1-2 weeks which is not always the case at the end of July and early August. First we have the system moving in this afternoon lasting through Monday and again tons of tropical moisture and really the models will not be much help in determining rain totals. I would probably put the rain totals in the 1-2 inch range but bust can happen both ways. After this where the mcs's decide to form will determine who gets more rain Tuesday through Friday. Again models not much help until the system forms and you need the surge of heat which will be to the southwest that feeds the boundary that will set up. This may be the best week for MCS complexes this season. Rainfall totals for Tuesday-Friday and these totals can vary from very little to several inches if you get hit more than once. May get a break next weekend but the tropics may start come into play and we know that models get goofy once that happens. We should have some strong ridging over the northern USA and Southern Canada and usually this time of year tropical systems can form in the GOM. Whether its a small piece of energy that made it from the Atlantic of just some disturbed weather in the GOM these systems try to form a tropical system. Usually either a tropical storm or weak Hurricane and maybe just disturbed weather that can bring up tons of tropical moisture. Models are everywhere on this outcome with the Euro throwing a system into the Carolina's,the CMC has one into western Florida and the gfs just has tons of moisture near the gulf coast. No ideal which if any of these are correct but no doubt something to watch.

Should see some hefty amounts where the north/south fetch of showers occur . The air moistened up very quickly today

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Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Jul 28, 2024 1:37 pm Should see some hefty amounts where the north/south fetch of showers occur . The air moistened up very quickly today

Yes it did on Friday I thought Sunday morning may come into play but it waited until just past noon. Tons of moisture and again amounts will vary and I already have had 2 downpours in the past hour so I am catching up quickly after a very slow June and much of July. Temps and rainfall amounts will be tough the forecast this week because the rainfall will have a nice range and temps though very warm and muggy it will depend on whether you get some decent rain and clouds during the day. Any day without rain and some decent sun temps in the low 90's possible but if you get a day with several hours of rain you may stay in the low-mid 80's. Heat index seems to be around the 92-97 range for many days but again a day with no rain and decent sun that can go over 100 degrees. The rains we are getting will also help in keeping any longer term heat wave from happening. This late spring and early summer has seen the high pressure get strong over the Rocky Mountains instead of the Smokey Mountains and that is one reason we have not had that predicted really hot July. Will August be a different story and you know patterns repeat as we see often in the winter but they also repeat in the summer as well. The Bermuda High cannot grab hold in the east which is a good thing for us but not so good out west as they await the monsoon season.

Just took a glance the latest models in terms of tropical formation and the GFS is following the lead of the CMC with a chance of a storm in about 7-10 days in the eastern GOM. The Euro had a system heading for the Carolina's but as of this post do not have the most recent Euro run. Will this end up being part of our forecast and 2 ways it could happen if the GFS and CMC are correct is a nice flow of tropical moisture once again though we may be on the western edge or we have a stronger ridge form and we get a few days of heat with no rain. Models will be back and forth though this one seems like one where the models may not struggle as much and one reason the strength may be one of a tropical storm or at best weak Hurricane. More to come on this later in the week

See a flood advisory for parts of northern Kentucky and Hamilton county in Ohio. Most likely will see several this week though most only last for a few hours but yes quite a bit of rain can fall quickly causing flash flooding which can catch folks off guard.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Jul 28, 2024 2:28 pm Just took a glance the latest models in terms of tropical formation and the GFS is following the lead of the CMC with a chance of a storm in about 7-10 days in the eastern GOM. The Euro had a system heading for the Carolina's but as of this post do not have the most recent Euro run. Will this end up being part of our forecast and 2 ways it could happen if the GFS and CMC are correct is a nice flow of tropical moisture once again though we may be on the western edge or we have a stronger ridge form and we get a few days of heat with no rain. Models will be back and forth though this one seems like one where the models may not struggle as much and one reason the strength may be one of a tropical storm or at best weak Hurricane. More to come on this later in the week

Of course there will be a hurricane in the GOM. Heading down there Thursday to meet up with about 30 other family and friends to Panama city beach. Just looked at the 0z runs this morning for florida. Have not been paying attention to the weather down there. Just trying to see when our next chance of rain was going to be for Ohio. Oh well, I will still go and hope for the best.

We got our 3 man limit of walleye yesterday and again today! The freezer will be packed good now lol. Weather was hot and sunny both days. I heard we got some rain today at home. Wonderful news!!! Keep it coming!

Have a wonderful time JP!

Congrats Les to you, your bro and his neighbor!

CVG got to 85, DAY 91 and CMH 94 on Sun.