Absolute Vorticity

Good to know we have a wind chill advisory but the entire state of Kentucky is under a state of emergency. I understand after last year and the tornado's you want to be ahead of the game just in case it really gets bad.

Wow... as of a couple of hours ago, check out this ob from Sheridan, WY. Been thru there before. A very scenic area of our country on your way to Yellowstone. They had -14 with heavy snow and a 1/4 mile vis and a windchill of -40.

FYI - BG will be doing a live SnowTalk! at 2pm.

ILN has upgraded our northern tier of counties to a winter storm warning for 2-4" of snow.

Wayne-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Miami-Champaign-
Including the cities of Richmond, Kenton, Ada, Celina, Coldwater,
Wapakoneta, St. Marys, Greenville, Sidney, Bellefontaine, Troy,
Piqua, Tipp City, and Urbana
1212 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 5 PM EST
FRIDAY...
...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...For the Winter Storm Warning, combination of snow,
blowing snow, and wind expected. Total snow accumulations of 2
to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph. For the Wind Chill
Watch, dangerously cold wind chills possible. Wind chills as
low as 30 below zero.

Getting ready at the woodpile. It's gonna be a Wooly of a storm. Made the beer run and smoking ribs.

Wow! WAVE 3 is going all in with this one! 4-6" for us? Whoa!

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 2:13 pm Wow! WAVE 3 is going all in with this one! 4-6" for us? Whoa!

WHAS, the Louisville ABC affiliate, has a similar forecast for the area

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 2:13 pm Wow! WAVE 3 is going all in with this one! 4-6" for us? Whoa!

Just saw that! Did he say the 12z Euro is SE???

Seindiana wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 2:18 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 2:13 pm Wow! WAVE 3 is going all in with this one! 4-6" for us? Whoa!

WHAS, the Louisville ABC affiliate, has a similar forecast for the area

Wow! Thanks Chuck! The 18Z Data will be interesting as well as 0Z tonight.

rhodesman88 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 2:21 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 2:13 pm Wow! WAVE 3 is going all in with this one! 4-6" for us? Whoa!

Just saw that! Did he say the 12z Euro is SE???

Yes, and we did on here too.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 2:13 pm Wow! WAVE 3 is going all in with this one! 4-6" for us? Whoa!

Thats why we love BG!

18Z HRRR is about halfway done and vs the 12Z run is definitely faster with the front and bringing in the cold air. It is also a tick SE as well with the low track.

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 2:25 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 2:13 pm Wow! WAVE 3 is going all in with this one! 4-6" for us? Whoa!

Thats why we love BG!

I can't pull the trigger yet. If we can get some more data to support it though then well... you know who may make an appearance at some point.

SPC has 2 MD's out. One is for snow squalls behind the arctic front over WY, SD, and Neb.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2055.html

The other is for heavy snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour in MN thanks to WAA.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2054.html

18Z HRRR has 3-4" with iso. 5" pockets. I assume some mesoscale banding is occurring. 15Z SREF has finally narrowed its goal posts. For CVG the members have a good clustering now of 1-4" with a mean of 2". Same with folks N of the river (Cincy burbs). I-70 Crew is around 3 on the mean for DAY and CMH.

18Z NAM just started. Let's see who gets NAM'ed on this run. We're due for one of those I think.

I can't wait to see this develop on radar

Whew, sat down a few minutes ago to catch up on the reading. It's like reading a good book by a fire. I'm ready for a nap. lol

Before we see the new NAM run... check this out from the EPS. Posted below is a comparison from Yesterday's 12Z run to the new one that just came out. These are SLP clusters. Note the HUGE change from yesterday to today with the SLP clusters and the fact that iut's trying to blow up the low along the East Coast. If that were to happen, I wonder what impacts that where be for us, or would heavier snow be more east? Not sure, this is just going to be one crazy system to completely nail down and totally get correct. I have a sneaky feeling some busts are going to happen in the snowfall dept. Both positive and negative depending on your location and how this storm develops and plays out.

ILN has finally issued a watch for the Metro and NKY.

Ohio-Switzerland-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Clermont-
Including the cities of Rising Sun, Vevay, Florence, Burlington,
Oakbrook, Covington, Erlanger, Independence, Newport, Alexandria,
and Milford
301 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
...WIND CHILL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Winter Storm Watch, combination of snow, blowing
snow, and wind possible. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3
inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. For the
Wind Chill Watch, dangerously cold wind chills possible. Wind
chills as low as 25 below zero.

ILN just extended watch and added Advisory. They are not buying higher totals.

The advisory text for our counties S and SE of the Metro:

Carroll-Gallatin-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-
Lewis-Pickaway-Fairfield-Ross-Hocking-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-
Scioto-
Including the cities of Carrollton, Warsaw, Owenton,
Williamstown, Crittenden, Dry Ridge, Falmouth, Butler, Augusta,
Brooksville, Mount Olivet, Maysville, Vanceburg, Tollesboro,
Circleville, Lancaster, Pickerington, Chillicothe, Logan,
Georgetown, Mount Orab, Hillsboro, Greenfield, West Union,
Peebles, Waverly, Piketon, Portsmouth, and Wheelersburg
301 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 1 PM
EST FRIDAY...
...WIND CHILL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, combination of snow,
blowing snow, and wind expected. Total snow accumulations of up
to two inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. For the Wind
Chill Watch, dangerously cold wind chills possible. Wind chills
as low as 25 below zero.

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Wed Dec 21, 2022 3:04 pm ILN just extended watch and added Advisory. They are not buying higher totals.

They won’t until tomorrow, if it continues with the higher amounts. Always ultra conservative.

No NAM'ing today. 18Z run is similar to 12Z to be honest. A general 2-4" with isolated higher amounts possible for the region.