Absolute Vorticity

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 3:05 pm

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 3:03 pm

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 12:42 pm will be watching some live streams on the Buffalo Blizzard. some areas got over 15 inches already

Yeah the show should be starting shortly for those folks. Was watching a chaser stream from Parish NY (downwind of Lake Ontario) and it was snowing so heavy you could barely see the car in front. He reported 17" here and it was still snowing over 2" an hour. HE then drove a few miles north and the sun came out! LOL

Very much like thunderstorms in Florida. One side of the road pouring and nothing on the other side.

The snow weenies in Rochester must be ready to jump off a cliff! NWS BUF now predicting 48-60" for Buffalo and the Southtowns, including Orchard Park where the Bills game supposedly will take place against Cleveland on Sunday. Gonna be a fun game to watch!!!

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 2:59 pm Trying to figure out how low we go Saturday or Sunday morning. I am going with 12-15 one of those nights but not sure which one. Having a clear sky and light winds should get us rather low even without snow cover.

If we get clear skies and calm winds for a long enough period of time, we could drop below 15 degrees even without snow. Record lows are safe. 5 from 1880 on Sat and 11 from 1914 on Sunday. I think 13-15 is possible. If clouds or wind does stay up, then thinking 18-20 for a low.

High temp so far 31 degrees. That is my high as well and current temp. Feels downright cold today but keeping my furnace at 68 . My utility bills though are rather low so I can keep thermostat at at decent temp in the winter at 68 and 77 in the summer.

31 for the high so far at CVG. I don't believe we will make it above the freezing mark today. Been holding at 30 for the last few hours. Tomorrow morning will prove to be interesting wherever that snow band decides to fall with the cold front. 18Z NAM Fam likes the I-70 Crew for the best action. 18Z HRRR likes N Cincy burbs, Metro, NKY and SE Crew. So pick your model, pick your location. Everyone is in the game for this. Still expecting a half inch and some problems where the most intense banding sets up. Still like the morning timing in that 4-8am range. Still will see flurries even after this however which won't wind down until sometime Fri afternoon. Then we flat out get cold for the weekend.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 3:29 pm 31 for the high so far at CVG. I don't believe we will make it above the freezing mark today. Been holding at 30 for the last few hours. Tomorrow morning will prove to be interesting wherever that snow band decides to fall with the cold front. 18Z NAM Fam likes the I-70 Crew for the best action. 18Z HRRR likes N Cincy burbs, Metro, NKY and SE Crew. So pick your model, pick your location. Everyone is in the game for this. Still expecting a half inch and some problems where the most intense banding sets up. Still like the morning timing in that 4-8am range. Still will see flurries even after this however which won't wind down until sometime Fri afternoon. Then we flat out get cold for the weekend.

Great weekend to watch some football with chili and beer. My lovely wife put up the Christmas Decorations already as she is hosting a nice holiday drink party for the ladies in the neighborhood in early December. Hopefully next week in getting the outdoor ones taken care of either Tuesday or Wednesday

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 3:36 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 3:29 pm 31 for the high so far at CVG. I don't believe we will make it above the freezing mark today. Been holding at 30 for the last few hours. Tomorrow morning will prove to be interesting wherever that snow band decides to fall with the cold front. 18Z NAM Fam likes the I-70 Crew for the best action. 18Z HRRR likes N Cincy burbs, Metro, NKY and SE Crew. So pick your model, pick your location. Everyone is in the game for this. Still expecting a half inch and some problems where the most intense banding sets up. Still like the morning timing in that 4-8am range. Still will see flurries even after this however which won't wind down until sometime Fri afternoon. Then we flat out get cold for the weekend.

Great weekend to watch some football with chili and beer. My lovely wife put up the Christmas Decorations already as she is hosting a nice holiday drink party for the ladies in the neighborhood in early December. Hopefully next week in getting the outdoor ones taken care of either Tuesday or Wednesday

Sounds great Tim! We are celebrating my Mom's Birthday on Saturday then will watch NFL Redzone on Sunday. Need my Fantasy Team to win this week.

Sounds like a good time Les and Happy Birthday to your mom. I gave on fantasy football I believe in 2006 but again I was doing fantasy in 1979 with the newspaper as the source for stats especially the Sunday paper. I finally just wanted to watch the game instead of fantasy football

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 3:48 pm Sounds like a good time Les and Happy Birthday to your mom. I gave on fantasy football I believe in 2006 but again I was doing fantasy in 1979 with the newspaper as the source for stats especially the Sunday paper. I finally just wanted to watch the game instead of fantasy football

Thanks! Yeah... you see the game in a much different way when you're involved in fantasy. You only care about individual players and how they perform. The heck with the actual team.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 3:10 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 3:05 pm

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 3:03 pm

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 12:42 pm will be watching some live streams on the Buffalo Blizzard. some areas got over 15 inches already

Yeah the show should be starting shortly for those folks. Was watching a chaser stream from Parish NY (downwind of Lake Ontario) and it was snowing so heavy you could barely see the car in front. He reported 17" here and it was still snowing over 2" an hour. HE then drove a few miles north and the sun came out! LOL

Very much like thunderstorms in Florida. One side of the road pouring and nothing on the other side.

The snow weenies in Rochester must be ready to jump off a cliff! NWS BUF now predicting 48-60" for Buffalo and the Southtowns, including Orchard Park where the Bills game supposedly will take place against Cleveland on Sunday. Gonna be a fun game to watch!!!

The Bills game has been moved to Ford Field in Detroit.

snowbo wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 4:58 pm The Bills game has been moved to Ford Field in Detroit.

I saw that, Bo! A shame though as it would have been cool to see a football game played in feet of snow!

The 18Z GFS actually phases both jets and creates a powerful upper low that does close off over IN and MI. Front end rain but back end snow for Black Friday. It's going to be an interesting week of model watching leading up to Thanksgiving that is for sure.

Meanwhile, it's COLD! 29 now here and at CVG so the ground is primed and ready to receive snow. Bands of snow over Lower MI, Northern IN, ILL, SE Iowa, and Wisc are all moving to the SE. Snowsquall parameter looks very impressive over N ILL, NW IN, and Lower MI. So we'll see how things look at the night wears on.

The boys had this to say earlier this afternoon:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Another shortwave traverses through the larger flow, dragging a
surface system along with it. As this cold front begins to work
into the forecast area around midnight, clouds thicken and snow
showers move in from west to east.
Synoptic signal is present for moderate to heavy bursts of
snowfall, especially along and north of the I-70 corridor during
the morning hours. This snowfall will linger into the morning
commute. Some slick spots are possible as well as quick
reductions in visibilities in heavier snow showers.
Accumulations will be minor with most areas only getting a
quarter to half inch.

Temperatures will drop into the 20s overnight, with wind chills
in the teens.

I looked at a wider view of the below map and 95%+ of Canada had snow cover, all of AK and Siberia, etc. For the CONUS, I'm impressed by this map for mid Nov.

LES Event in Buffalo about to get underway!

CB's Winter Outlook: Dec and Jan coldest and snowiest months. His Bold Prediction was a storm that meets blizzard criteria. I just hope it isn't one where we get missed out again and Central / Southern KY get it all. Seen that movie too much over the last few years. Let's make the bullseye I-70 to I-64... that would make most folks happy on our forum. Been a long time since we've seen a region wide big hitter.


https://www.wkyt.com/2022/11/17/chris-b ... -forecast/

LIVE Feed of the LES Event from Buffalo. It's just starting and radar already showing lighting getting ready to move in from the lake!

We should start to see some flurries in our NW after midnight and as the wee morning hours wear on for the rest of us.

Good morning all! Seeing a few areas of flurries and light snow showers out there but overall, the radar pic isn't much today. But cloudy skies, temps near 31-32 with a few PM peeks of sun possible is about it for today. Breezy and cold this weekend. Mon, Tues, and Wed all look very nice for folks who need to finish up leaves and yard clean up. I am still watching Thanksgiving and beyond with low confidence as stated yesterday.

Seeing 2 foot plus reports already coming out of South Buffalo snow towns Like 33.9" in Hamburg for example. 20" of that came in only 6 hours with thunder snow and 3-5" per hour rates. I am major jelly!

Light snow falling here, breezy, and cold. Wind chills in the 20's. I'm taking the day off.

Edit: Unless it would happen to get some icy spots. But I'm not seeing that at the moment.

Seeing a bit of sun here but winds are getting frisky out there. Wind chills will run in the 20s today no doubt with air temps nearly steady from where they are now.

Good Morning and not even a flurry at my house but hope some folks got a little snow. The winds are strong this morning but some sunshine. Looked at the models this morning and good luck. Really no reason to mess with the forecast until the pattern is set. One thing I have noticed is the mjo. Been in the COD for about a week and was heading toward phases 4-6. At the moment phase 4 looks unlikely but is the mjo really going into phase 5 or 6? We will see and at the moment just hanging in the COD. Once you leave a certain phase whatever is the normal in that phase usually hangs around but does modify over time. Then we just wait to see what the next phase happens to be. The forecast mainly called for that to be phase 5 or 6. Yes its heading that way but at the moment is sort of stuck and Bgoney brought this up yesterday how slow the mjo is and it may continue. Watching the AO as well and does it become more neutral later next week along with the NAO. If this happens that could be a sign for some winter weather before November ends.

Love the snowfall map for much of Canada and northern 1/4 of the USA. Lets hope we can add to that over the next week or so. Further down the road I am keeping my forecast. Saw the forecast from Chris and again making long term winter forecast is better to play it down the middle unless there is a huge sign of warmth or cold. He is a little above on snowfall but that is his bias and usually shows up on forecasts. I lean towards cold over warmth and that is my bias and sometimes I look like a genius and other time not so much. Trying harder each year to get away from the bias but again I try each year to drink less beer and how is that going.

Good morning Tim and I hear you on the beer part. I did not see any flakage either. Sun came out quicker then I thought it would today. Looks like a temp. dry slot has moved in with clouds in the wrap around moisture to our north and another band of clouds to the south with the actual cold front.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 18, 2022 10:27 am Good morning Tim and I hear you on the beer part. I did not see any flakage either. Sun came out quicker then I thought it would today. Looks like a temp. dry slot has moved in with clouds in the wrap around moisture to our north and another band of clouds to the south with the actual cold front.

Good Morning Les and we tend to see a little more sunshine with an arctic blast. Expect more clouds later but not much in the way of warmth. I am excited to look at the models today and usually I like to wait but they have been so different each time its like opening a gift at Christmas and did I get another pair of socks or a nice 12 pack of beer

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Nov 18, 2022 10:32 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 18, 2022 10:27 am Good morning Tim and I hear you on the beer part. I did not see any flakage either. Sun came out quicker then I thought it would today. Looks like a temp. dry slot has moved in with clouds in the wrap around moisture to our north and another band of clouds to the south with the actual cold front.

Good Morning Les and we tend to see a little more sunshine with an arctic blast. Expect more clouds later but not much in the way of warmth. I am excited to look at the models today and usually I like to wait but they have been so different each time its like opening a gift at Christmas and did I get another pair of socks or a nice 12 pack of beer

I'm tired of getting that lump of coal in my stocking all the time so hoping it's the 12 pack instead!

Les you got to wonder since most everything is neutral like the AO and NAO and PNA plus we are in the COD with the mjo that models are trying to figure what may be controlling the weather. Many times with La Nina the northern jet tends to visit more often while the STJ will wake up once in awhile and help out.