Absolute Vorticity

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jul 21, 2022 9:16 am Looking at next week and why chances are higher than normal for a longer period of possible showers and thundershowers. Will have a nice high pressure to the north that is rather strong. Cold fronts in later July very seldom drop further south than the Tn Valley or extreme northern gulf states. This should keep a boundary rather close to us much of the week. One of those deals where it comes through as a cold front Monday and heads south and then a couple of days later returns as a warm front to spark more storms. How much rainfall is up in the air at this point but at least chances are there for most folks to get some needed rainfall. Again for the month we are near average in terms of rainfall and for the year we are about 1 inch above normal. The problem was much of mid-late June was very dry so that is why it seems we are much drier.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 21, 2022 6:34 am Good morning all! I expect the upper 80s today then the 90s thru the weekend. Do we get any sneaky storm chances before next week? A few models are trying but I'd say chances are low. Like Sat morning a dying complex is trying to enter ands again late Sunday. I'll watch it but I think our greatest chances probably hold off until Sunday night and as we roll into next week.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 21, 2022 12:10 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 21, 2022 6:34 am Good morning all! I expect the upper 80s today then the 90s thru the weekend. Do we get any sneaky storm chances before next week? A few models are trying but I'd say chances are low. Like Sat morning a dying complex is trying to enter ands again late Sunday. I'll watch it but I think our greatest chances probably hold off until Sunday night and as we roll into next week.

12z NAM still holding onto the storm chances for Saturday

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jul 22, 2022 7:43 am Great post Les. The weekend and how hot or muggy do we get. Models are having a little trouble on the dew points this weekend which again makes a difference of how high the temps can rise. We could see temps near 95 but dew points in the low to mid 60's or do we see temps say 91 but dew points in the low 70's. Either way its going to be hot but nothing like we saw on Wednesday or in June imo. Hopefully everyone sees several periods of showers and thundershowers next week and even some models late next week has us below normal in temps as the front sinks a little further south.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 21, 2022 6:51 pm CVG got 89'ed per the 5pm climate report.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 22, 2022 8:52 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 21, 2022 6:51 pm CVG got 89'ed per the 5pm climate report.

I'm amazed we have only seen two 89 days so far.....

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 22, 2022 9:34 am 12z HRRR looks quite stormy up this way tomorrow morning. Would love to see the rain.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 22, 2022 10:09 am 12z 3km NAM has a stormy early Saturday look to it as well mainly north of the river. The OPS NAM keeps everything well north of I-70.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jul 22, 2022 10:19 am
I am torn on the early Saturday forecast. Most of the time you can tell if its going to miss us by quite a bit or slam us. This one imo is we are on the fence and the reason is the complex should start out rather far south compared to some earlier this year. So Indy to Day I feel rather confident some rainfall will occur but towards CVG at this point I am going 50/50.