Absolute Vorticity

I think Les and Tim covered this nicely earlier...but there is also the flash flood threat with very intense downpours in any cell that moves over your hood...

Sargent51 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 3:00 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 2:51 pm Storms are in Indy and heading down I-74. So much fuel and this could be very interesting after 5pm

Are they though? they look to me to be moving almost due east, even a bit ENE? I'm not a fan of Steve "the Chin" R., but I do like to WCPO radar on their website. If you drag the timer circle on the radar back and forth, you can clearly see it's not moving much south at all...

What a great post and you are correct about the movement of the storms. So what you will probably see is the filling in of storms between Indy and CVG over the next couple of hours. This is a great lesson to learn from and one we don't see often.

You can see waves moving toward our area, not sure if we'll get any storms this far south or not.

COD sat loop: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined

Yeah we are kind of flying blind here - the models had the system then they didn't so we will just have to watch and see what happens I guess. I just know the atmosphere here is about as primed as it can get so anyone is fair game in the next few hours.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 3:04 pm I think Les and Tim covered this nicely earlier...but there is also the flash flood threat with very intense downpours in any cell that moves over your hood...


mcd0350.gif

Yes... ground is still saturated even imby and with the insane humidity today, despite the warm temps, it did not dry up a whole lot so when you get PWATS like this, you'll see an inch of rain say in 30-45 mins time. You know the end result isn't going to be good so urban and street flooding will most certainly become a problem wherever these storms decide to move.

I was hoping for an 82 dew at CVG, but alas it is back down to 80. Bummer! LOL

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 3:05 pm

Sargent51 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 3:00 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 2:51 pm Storms are in Indy and heading down I-74. So much fuel and this could be very interesting after 5pm

Are they though? they look to me to be moving almost due east, even a bit ENE? I'm not a fan of Steve "the Chin" R., but I do like to WCPO radar on their website. If you drag the timer circle on the radar back and forth, you can clearly see it's not moving much south at all...

What a great post and you are correct about the movement of the storms. So what you will probably see is the filling in of storms between Indy and CVG over the next couple of hours. This is a great lesson to learn from and one we don't see often.

I'd like to comment on this as well. Currently, they are not dropping SE. That is def a correct statement and observation. The expectation is for these storms to congeal into an MCS and then move SE along the theta-e gradient. OR basically in English, along the warm front and instability gradient. We are close enough to the warm front down here to keep our eyes peeled to see when that drop to the SE occurs.

TP and Les...thanks for the explanations. I appreciate it.

Mesoanalysis shows a 40-60 knot jet streak over ILL about ready to feed into the cluster of developing storms into IN. If this ignites things further as I suspect it will, then in the next hour or two we should see that dive SE into our area in my honest opinion. I'll own up to it if the SE dive never occurs for us but I think that it will. The CAP over Iowa and ILL is very strong at 700 MB and we don't yet know if it will break later this evening. That's why we're not seeing back building storms into ILL. CAP is too strong at this time.

89/80 in my hood! First time I have seen an 80 dewpoint here.

Sargent51 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 3:18 pm TP and Les...thanks for the explanations. I appreciate it.

Like Mike mentioned earlier, with the guidance being as awful as it has been... we're kind of doing our own analysis here in real time on the SPC meso page in addition to using radar and satellite. These storms eventually are going to dive SE. Question is... do we see it in the next couple of hours, or does it occur later so it's a swing and a miss for us. Both options are on the table. I've made my call on what I believe will happen. I wouldn't mind being wrong on this actually. I like keeping my power on.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 3:25 pm 89/80 in my hood! First time I have seen an 80 dewpoint here.

90 / 80 here with a HI of 108. Talk about Fugggglllllyyyyy!!!

Sargent51 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 3:18 pm TP and Les...thanks for the explanations. I appreciate it.

If helpful, this is the WRF 12z run Tim and others mentioned earlier. It clearly shows the front forming and diving SW. Visuals help sometimes.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/e5940f2 ... d1ba8a7a35

Storms closing in on our NW counties in SE Indiana. N of Greensburg, W of Rushville. Connersville may see one of these cells in the next 30-60 mins. First warning from IND.

The National Weather Service in Indianapolis has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northeastern Boone County in central Indiana...
Southwestern Hamilton County in central Indiana...

* Until 400 PM EDT.

* At 326 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Lebanon, or
17 miles southeast of Frankfort, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.

EDIT: There were warnings earlier too so that is actually the 2nd warning issued. My mistake. All of it is N of IND for the severe stuff at this time.

Sometimes hard to explain and yes Les explained this very well. Many times individual storms will move one direction but overall more storms form in the air mass that is ripe and this time it does include our area. Again nothing 100p/c sure in weather and that air mass could move one way or another but I believe the NWS has it correct with the area they included with the watch. Many times you will get outflows of one storm to help develop another storm and that also looks like the case with today's set up. So we talk a lot about now cast and that is a phrase we use quite often but that happens to be what we need with the afternoon and early evening forecast. Great posts guys

It is gross out there ugh!!!

rhodesman88 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 3:29 pm

Sargent51 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 3:18 pm TP and Les...thanks for the explanations. I appreciate it.

If helpful, this is the WRF 12z run Tim and others mentioned earlier. It clearly shows the front forming and diving SW. Visuals help sometimes.
[media]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/e5940f2 ... d1ba8a7a35[/media]

I have a better visual for you. Valid from 3pm today thru 8am Tues morning.

5-8pm range should be prime time if it's going to happen as modeled above. We'll see!

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 3:37 pm
I have a better visual for you. Valid from 3pm today thru 8am Tues morning.

Wow - now that is an MCS train right there LOL

Excessive Heat Warning now for everyone tomorrow - Heat Index between 105 and 110. Can it be more uncomfortable than today - why yes it can! Ugh!

Starting to see some lightning with the cell SE side of Cincy in Kenton/Campbell County.

rhodesman88 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 3:29 pm

Sargent51 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 3:18 pm TP and Les...thanks for the explanations. I appreciate it.

If helpful, this is the WRF 12z run Tim and others mentioned earlier. It clearly shows the front forming and diving SW. Visuals help sometimes.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/e5940f2 ... d1ba8a7a35

Well, that didn't work. #embarrassing

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 3:37 pm
I have a better visual for you. Valid from 3pm today thru 8am Tues morning.

Much better! lol

canopy is down..... did it about 15 min ago, swear I heard a rumble in the distance at one point.....

skies have noticeably darkened here now. it's coming for sure.