Absolute Vorticity

Good Morning Les and it really was the perfect storm for us locally. Timing has been on our side the past two evenings which is a big change over the past couple of months. Still going 86-88 and the reason is the wet ground but we will have a strong southwest wind and usually that will make temps rise quicker but with the wet ground here I will still go with the lower temp though folks say in Louisville which missed much of the rain should have no problem getting in the low 90's. Saturday will start out warm in the morning and with the slower movement of the front I had to out 90 in the forecast and maybe a degree or two higher if it remains sunny much of the day. Heading for SC on Sunday and will be down there for several days.

Angelika wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 7:41 am Does anyone know how much it rained? Our house is taking on water. I don't have time for this.

Oh no! 1-2" is all I am finding in your area. Checked HAO, Middletown, Franklin, etc.

1.25" at home and 2" in Indian Hill

Angelika wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 7:41 am Does anyone know how much it rained? Our house is taking on water. I don't have time for this.

Radar estimates look like there were some isolated 3-4" amounts

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 7:50 am Good Morning Les and it really was the perfect storm for us locally. Timing has been on our side the past two evenings which is a big change over the past couple of months. Still going 86-88 and the reason is the wet ground but we will have a strong southwest wind and usually that will make temps rise quicker but with the wet ground here I will still go with the lower temp though folks say in Louisville which missed much of the rain should have no problem getting in the low 90's. Saturday will start out warm in the morning and with the slower movement of the front I had to out 90 in the forecast and maybe a degree or two higher if it remains sunny much of the day. Heading for SC on Sunday and will be down there for several days.

You know the overnight rains and clouds this morning are going to kill the chances today. But if we can remain cloud free tomorrow maybe it'll happen? We'll have to see how much afternoon CU development we get, if any, or do we see any cloud blow off from storms occurring well to our NW? That's about the only thing that could stop us from hitting 90 on Sat. You'll have some rain for the start of your trip on Sunday though. That's never fun.

BG StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2022/05/20/stormt ... pdate-520/

0.6" overnight

The sun is starting to come out now so the temp climb here has begun! We'll see how warm we can get. Def a humid night in the L70s (U60s to the north) and we'll see how tomorrow shakes out both temp and cloud / storm wise in the afternoon. At least we can all relax a bit at least for today. I think we deserve that.

Oh... I don't think anyone has mentioned this but the wind is going to get going today also as the sun warms us up. Could see gusts in excess of 30 mph this afternoon so a heads up if you're outside. With all of the rain, if there are any weakened trees, could have an isolated issue or two this afternoon with some branches and what not potentially coming down in some areas. Breeze is already picking up here... probably in that 10 to 15 mph range attm so not terrible. Give it a few hours...

So 3km NAM says only low 80s tomorrow? Think it will be warmer than that unless upstream convection blows clouds our way.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 11:43 am So 3km NAM says only low 80s tomorrow? Think it will be warmer than that unless upstream convection blows clouds our way.

Yeah... I think the upper 80s is a good call. Tim can also be right with his 90+ call as well should no clouds impacts our highs. I think cloud debris will a little but not as much as the NAM is indicating.

The 12Z GFS is only showing mid 80s on Sat due to better t-storm coverage in the afternoon and evening. The front is moving in a little faster on this run and clears the area around midday to early afternoon on Sunday instead of Sun late afternoon or evening.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 12:02 pm The 12Z GFS is only showing mid 80s on Sat due to better t-storm coverage in the afternoon and evening. The front is moving in a little faster on this run and clears the area around midday to early afternoon on Sunday instead of Sun late afternoon or evening.

Model is really trying to correct itself imo. Went way to slow and had most of Sunday with some kind of rainfall. Imo Saturday night and early Sunday morning is the best chance for rain. Saturday afternoon I believe is more isolated in nature but again any thunderstorm that can form has a chance to have strong winds and heavy rain for a short period of time. Still believe after the drying today and temps starting out warm Saturday morning that by noon time we are already at 85 or so and then how much cloud cover do we get from the area out in Illinois.

We may only stay in the 60s for highs on Monday esp if the clouds hang on in the morning longer then expected. Should hit 70 to L70s if enough sun is realized. Looks like a nice day with lower humidity as well. By Tues morning, the next system is already causing problems for the Plains States. For us, the GFS is bringing in the leading edge of more convection form the SW by late in the day into our SW counties. Wed more action and Thurs is now looking like the best day for storminess with a low moving thru. Even better then wed now. 12Z GFS and 0Z Euro from overnight both have heavier rains on Thurs vs Wed now.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 12:27 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 12:02 pm The 12Z GFS is only showing mid 80s on Sat due to better t-storm coverage in the afternoon and evening. The front is moving in a little faster on this run and clears the area around midday to early afternoon on Sunday instead of Sun late afternoon or evening.

Model is really trying to correct itself imo. Went way to slow and had most of Sunday with some kind of rainfall. Imo Saturday night and early Sunday morning is the best chance for rain. Saturday afternoon I believe is more isolated in nature but again any thunderstorm that can form has a chance to have strong winds and heavy rain for a short period of time. Still believe after the drying today and temps starting out warm Saturday morning that by noon time we are already at 85 or so and then how much cloud cover do we get from the area out in Illinois.

None of the global models did well. Some of the mesoscale models failed also. HRRR probably did the best with this last event as Trev mentioned yesterday. I've seen that model fail a lot in the past though so... you know. It got lucky!

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 12:36 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 12:27 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 12:02 pm The 12Z GFS is only showing mid 80s on Sat due to better t-storm coverage in the afternoon and evening. The front is moving in a little faster on this run and clears the area around midday to early afternoon on Sunday instead of Sun late afternoon or evening.

Model is really trying to correct itself imo. Went way to slow and had most of Sunday with some kind of rainfall. Imo Saturday night and early Sunday morning is the best chance for rain. Saturday afternoon I believe is more isolated in nature but again any thunderstorm that can form has a chance to have strong winds and heavy rain for a short period of time. Still believe after the drying today and temps starting out warm Saturday morning that by noon time we are already at 85 or so and then how much cloud cover do we get from the area out in Illinois.

None of the global models did well. Some of the mesoscale models failed also. HRRR probably did the best with this last event as Trev mentioned yesterday. I've seen that model fail a lot in the past though so... you know. It got lucky!

I agree Les and sometimes we just rely on what we have seen in the past. Models are a good tool but sometimes the info they throw out makes little sense to what is happening. I have no ideal why the is and probably never will. Trev had this one and deserves all the credit. I thought the warm front was being underdone but I had the mcs to far northwest. Those two to interact gave us a perfect storm. For the weekend besides an isolated severe storm I believe we may be in between two stronger areas of low pressure and the more likely severe weather will be north and south of us. On a side note my sister-n-law and brother-n-law have been in Colorado Springs all week with lovely weather and hit 89 yesterday. At the moment light rain and 38 and by noon on Saturday anywhere from 5-10 inches of snow.

Agreed Tim... I made the same mistakes you did. We live and learn That is why we love the weather so much, we are always learning.

WHOA - day 2 outlook now has all AV land from I-71 westward in slight risk for tomorrow!

Had .30" in my gauge from Wed.

Just a trace from last night.

Currently 84 here in G'ville.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 1:35 pm WHOA - day 2 outlook now has all AV land from I-71 westward in slight risk for tomorrow!


spcd2cat.conus.png

I agree... 12Z Euro also speeding up the front. This makes sense!

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 1:35 pm WHOA - day 2 outlook now has all AV land from I-71 westward in slight risk for tomorrow!


spcd2cat.conus.png

From Maine to Texas the slight risk.

NW counties obviously are favored here but if the front on Sunday speeds up anymore then what the 12Z suite is showing, we will also get involved Sat evening with anything that forms and tries to move in with the pre frontal trough.

Temp is 84 here as well. DP is 65

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:23 pm Temp is 84 here as well. DP is 65

About the same here... a nice breeze too at least out there. Thinking the upper 80s will max us out today. The way tomorrow is looking, we may be safe from 90 again as well.

Euro has Tues dry now next week but very active Wed and Thurs. Wow.,.. buckle up folks! What a roll we've been on. May need to create threads to bring the domes back. Of course Mike wouldn't be too thrilled with me so...