Absolute Vorticity

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Feb 15, 2022 9:19 am What is interesting about this system is the NWS offices in the central plains have not issued any winter related advisories and the system gets going later on Wednesday. Though the gfs has been showing the same track for days my guess there are some issues the folks are trying to figure out. First the Euro though it came a little further north is still several miles south of the gfs. Second there looks to be quite a bit of dry air trying to enter the system from the northwest and does this eat up some of the precip after it changes to snow. Sure they will issue something later today but rather late especially for places that have not seen much in the way of winter weather this season.

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 15, 2022 9:51 am warm and wet till the end of the month. late Feb into first half of March possible cold and wintry . many people are going to say winter is over starting this week but that may not be the case.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Feb 15, 2022 11:15 am Latest gfs a tad further south so heading towards the Euro. CMC similar to last night and still gives us some snow on the back end. Okay Euro what is the final verdict lol.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Feb 15, 2022 8:55 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Feb 15, 2022 7:40 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Feb 15, 2022 5:31 am No changes overnight or for quite some time for that matter , GFS has lead the way with EU following closer each run. Still 1-2" qpf and of course the winds will be an issue especially wednesday/thursday, which Trev mentioned several days back. Will be quite the snowstorm for plains/midwest , possible blizzard conditions, they can use any kind of qpf in the southern plains as it has been a dry winter, so good for them

Definitely looks like at least advisory criteria. Any heavier showers or storms could of course being down even higher winds. With the saturated grounds, spotty power outages would seem like a good bet.

Trev has been on the wind issue for days and its an interesting set up. Many times you get some strong winds but they tend to last only a few hours with the higher winds. This may be a 24-36 hour period with constant winds over 20 mph plus some higher gust over 40 easily. This can tumble down some trees especially this time of year.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Feb 15, 2022 1:21 pm I believe models are having problems because tons of moisture available but the wind fields are such that everything is moving quickly and makes it harder for storms to get stronger and also gain latitude because the higher winds are north of the storm itself on Wednesday. Like Bgoney pointed out with the Euro and GFS and the difference in snow totals and we are within 24 hours of this system starting to get together. That is one big difference. Concerning percip totals and I agree with Bgoney on the lower totals and probably going to be a narrow area of heavier rains while other folks get in that .5-1.0 because of the faster nature of this system. Still cannot rule out 2 inches for somebody but I am going quite a bit lower for most folks. Not sure where that heavier rainfall will set up and may not know until a few hours before the system begins.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Feb 15, 2022 1:46 pm WOW , there is a lot going on next week. Quite the battle between the SE ridge and Arctic high