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Re: January 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Jan 18, 2022 1:11 pm
by tron777
airwolf76 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 18, 2022 1:05 pm
i think a big dawg is on the table the next couple weeks, what you think.
I do esp if a clipper can phase with a wave in the STJ. Fantasy Range GFS hinted at it in early Feb on todays run. That scenario would work. Need the phase to be a little later so it doesn't cut. You'd want it a lot later for the East Coast.
Re: January 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Jan 18, 2022 1:37 pm
by tron777
Watching the first clipper coming for Sun night carefully. Euro is showing this one as well on the 12Z run. Then another one follows Mon late afternoon and evening. This one looks to be a bit stronger and it's tracking a bit to our north as a result. Snow misses us for the most part. Also watching a Gulf Low around the same time. That's what we are dealing with for next week and next weekend. Clippers will drop in from time to time and do any phase with any Gulf waves or not in the STJ. That is really the idea for the next week and change.
Re: January 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Jan 18, 2022 3:33 pm
by cloudy72
GFS has temperatures at or below freezing for the remainder of the month here in Dayton (after tomorrow 1/19 that is).
Re: January 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Jan 18, 2022 3:53 pm
by tron777
cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 18, 2022 3:33 pm
GFS has temperatures at or below freezing for the remainder of the month here in Dayton (after tomorrow 1/19 that is).
I don't see CVG getting above 40 either after tomorrow.
Re: January 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 5:50 am
by airwolf76
tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 18, 2022 1:11 pm
airwolf76 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 18, 2022 1:05 pm
i think a big dawg is on the table the next couple weeks, what you think.
I do esp if a clipper can phase with a wave in the STJ. Fantasy Range GFS hinted at it in early Feb on todays run. That scenario would work. Need the phase to be a little later so it doesn't cut. You'd want it a lot later for the East Coast.
no i dont want it, i want it for you. your the one that is overdue . ive had my share of big dawgs remember.
Re: January 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 6:19 am
by tron777
airwolf76 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 5:50 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 18, 2022 1:11 pm
airwolf76 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 18, 2022 1:05 pm
i think a big dawg is on the table the next couple weeks, what you think.
I do esp if a clipper can phase with a wave in the STJ. Fantasy Range GFS hinted at it in early Feb on todays run. That scenario would work. Need the phase to be a little later so it doesn't cut. You'd want it a lot later for the East Coast.
no i dont want it, i want it for you. your the one that is overdue . ive had my share of big dawgs remember.
Well thanks man! I really appreciate that.
Re: January 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 6:28 am
by tron777
Good morning and all aboard the clipper train! I am watching the potential for us to get three events next week. The first comes Sun night. The next one late Mon / Tues and a third one towards Friday or so late next week. Amounts, track of system, and available moisture are all up for grabs.
Re: January 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 6:59 am
by tpweather
Good Morning and what does some of the tellies tell us for the future. These are tools we use like the AO,NAO,PNA,etc. If these are correct and many times they are as the pattern is showing its hand and these tools can help pick up on these. Late next week into the weekend the AO,NAO look to head positive and if correct the AO really positive and the Pna heading towards neutral. This could really make sense as over the next week much of western,central and northern Canada getting very mild which is another reason we are getting some colder air. If the AO goes positive as the models show then expect those areas to once again get cold compared to average. Usually when you have a decent change in one or two of these tellies is when to expect a bigger storm. Like Les mentioned we start with the clipper train later this weekend but by the following weekend if the tellies are correct you would expect a bigger storm to form. This will probably be a combo of smaller systems starting to dance and this far in advance very seldom do the models have them meeting up for some action.
Re: January 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 7:09 am
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 6:59 am
Good Morning and what does some of the tellies tell us for the future. These are tools we use like the AO,NAO,PNA,etc. If these are correct and many times they are as the pattern is showing its hand and these tools can help pick up on these. Late next week into the weekend the AO,NAO look to head positive and if correct the AO really positive and the Pna heading towards neutral. This could really make sense as over the next week much of western,central and northern Canada getting very mild which is another reason we are getting some colder air. If the AO goes positive as the models show then expect those areas to once again get cold compared to average. Usually when you have a decent change in one or two of these tellies is when to expect a bigger storm. Like Les mentioned we start with the clipper train later this weekend but by the following weekend if the tellies are correct you would expect a bigger storm to form. This will probably be a combo of smaller systems starting to dance and this far in advance very seldom do the models have them meeting up for some action.
I'm going with the clipper pattern next week as you know, then a big storm potential for someone end of Jan or beg of Feb. That has been my thinking for a while now. I think we are on the same page here Tim, which is good.
I see two big storm potential periods actually. The first I've mentioned already and this storm would have a chance to form along the leading edge of another bout of cold air. The second, when we come out of this pattern. When going into a cold pattern, or coming out of one, big storms like to form when the tellies flip and the pattern changes. 1st half of Feb def holds big storm potential due to the reasons I have outlined here. Late Jan or early Feb due to a cold air attack then once this pattern breaks down, another opportunity.
Re: January 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 8:13 am
by cloudy72
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 6:28 am
Good morning and all aboard the clipper train! I am watching the potential for us to get three events next week. The first comes Sun night. The next one late Mon / Tues and a third one towards Friday or so late next week. Amounts, track of system, and available moisture are all up for grabs.
Here is what the Euro Ensembles says....looks pretty active. That system early to mid next week will be the next one to watch as there are a few beefy runs in there!
ecmwf-ensemble-KCVG-indiv_snow_24-2550400.png
Re: January 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 8:20 am
by tron777
cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 8:13 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 6:28 am
Good morning and all aboard the clipper train! I am watching the potential for us to get three events next week. The first comes Sun night. The next one late Mon / Tues and a third one towards Friday or so late next week. Amounts, track of system, and available moisture are all up for grabs.
Here is what the Euro Ensembles says....looks pretty active. That system early to mid next week will be the next one to watch as there are a few beefy runs in there!
ecmwf-ensemble-KCVG-indiv_snow_24-2550400.png
Yeah... models have been on and off with that clipper with regards to a phase or no phase with a southern stream system. The second clipper should be stronger then the Sun night one anyway IMO.
Re: January 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:55 pm
by tpweather
Nice to see the models starting to see some phasing of systems in the longer term. Once we get these cold shots to dig further southwest which has been the problem so far then the energy will have a much chance of getting together. To early to look at a certain model at a certain time because we know this far out one time they will show no phasing and the next a big storm. The pattern is no doubt showing better chances so we have another 2-3 weeks of decent winter weather and who knows after that time period but lets enjoy the next 3 weeks for sure.
Re: January 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 2:27 pm
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 12:55 pm
Nice to see the models starting to see some phasing of systems in the longer term. Once we get these cold shots to dig further southwest which has been the problem so far then the energy will have a much chance of getting together. To early to look at a certain model at a certain time because we know this far out one time they will show no phasing and the next a big storm. The pattern is no doubt showing better chances so we have another 2-3 weeks of decent winter weather and who knows after that time period but lets enjoy the next 3 weeks for sure.
12Z Euro almost gets the job done for Tues of next week. We get a partial phase out of it on this run. The Sun night clipper looks weak but the potential next thread worthy event might be Tuesday should we get more support for this solution.
Re: January 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 2:31 pm
by tron777
Seeing small hints of that on the GEFS too for Tues. OP GFS has no phase but we get tickled by the southern wave. CMC has the northern wave bringing us some snow with again no phasing. Day 6 so the usual array of solutions apply. This is the next period that has peaked my interest though.
Re: January 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:09 pm
by young pup
Thanks for keeping up on the models. I really have not looked past this upcoming weekend.
Trying to not look to far ahead.
Re: January 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:40 pm
by tron777
young pup wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:09 pm
Thanks for keeping up on the models. I really have not looked past this upcoming weekend.
Trying to not look to far ahead.
You know me JP. Weather and esp snow is my drug of choice so I am ways looking for our next "fix"
Re: January 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:44 pm
by tpweather
No doubt one of the nicest cold fronts to go through the south central states this season. Mid 80's in southern Texas today and winter storm warnings for late on Thursday and Friday for ice.
Re: January 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:50 pm
by young pup
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:40 pm
young pup wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:09 pm
Thanks for keeping up on the models. I really have not looked past this upcoming weekend.
Trying to not look to far ahead.
You know me JP. Weather and esp snow is my drug of choice so I am ways looking for our next "fix"
Re: January 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:55 pm
by tron777
12Z EPS shows the partial phase that the OP Euro was showing today for Tues of next week. CMC was close. GFS nowhere close. Hints of it on GEFS so we'll see. Again, weak clipper Sun night but Tues is the next day to watch IMO.
Re: January 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 5:41 pm
by tron777
18Z GFS for Tues - Although rain / snow mix is showing up, at 500 MB, it is a step towards the phased solution. Not like the Euro but like the CMC. This is good. Lots of time for that one. Not seeing the Sunday night clipper system as being too much so the heights should be able to rise to slow the flow down enough for a possible phasing on Tues. Sorry for the excessive Tues posts. I am hitting this time period hard right now lol
Re: January 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2022 7:59 pm
by tron777
NWS LOU is keeping one eye open on Tuesday:
Our attention then turns to the possibility of another storm system
impacting the Ohio Valley by Tuesday. Cut-off low over the Gulf of
California will eject eastward across TX Monday into Tuesday as an
upper-level trough drops southward over the Dakotas and into the
Great Lakes by Tuesday. Long range models tend to agree that a sfc
low develops along the LA Gulf coast Monday night into Tuesday
morning but differ significantly on how deep the trough becomes over
the Great Lakes and on the strength of the system as it tracks along
the Gulf Coast into the southeastern US by Tuesday evening. For now,
will introduce the slight chance of rain/snow across most of KY on
Tuesday with highs in the mid/upper 30s.
Re: January 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 20, 2022 4:09 am
by theextremeone
Guess cvg / cincy was a bust on this round , im thinking our big event will come early March
Re: January 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 20, 2022 6:25 am
by Bgoney
Total Jan snowfall around AVland, Dayton 1.1. Cvg 1.8 . Cbus 1.9.
Re: January 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 20, 2022 6:26 am
by Bgoney
Total Jan snowfall around AVland, Dayton 1.1. Cvg 1.8 . Cbus 1.9.
Re: January 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Jan 20, 2022 6:28 am
by Bgoney
Ugh, sorry about the double post, certainly don't need to see that stat twice