March 2021 Weather Discussion

[Bgoney]

Russia’s Vostok station registered the first -70C or -94F, reading of the year on Friday, March 19.

The mark was some 8C below the seasonal average, and just 5C off the station’s all-time March record low.

[tron777]

I hit 71 today... CVG topped out at 70 degrees.

Low rain chances tomorrow and Wed with Thurs / Thurs night still looking like our best chance for rain and t-storms. GFS continues to be a heavy rain maker while the Euro has the stronger low solution still tracking to our NW which would present a risk of stronger t-storms. We watch and wait.

EU is on its own atm with its much stronger low and dramatically different severe prospects. Will this be the umpteenth time the EU is wrong with the strength of a low. ?

GFS continues to trend more SE with the low now passing it SE of us on the 18Z run. This is the upgraded GFS now so we'll see how it performs now that its in action.

[MVWxObserver]

Currently 63 here in G'ville and going for 66 tomorrow.

[tron777]

We will probably be 2-3 degrees cooler tomorrow then we were today thanks to clouds. Wed could hit 70 again ahead of the low for Thursday.

[Bgoney]

Latest models bring us no closer to solving Thursday's severe chances. EU says yes still , other models probably not. NAM/GFS have the low doing some strange movements, so don't think they are trustworthy atm. EU still has a quickly intensifying low to our West, but we know that has been a bias for months now, so , I think another day is needed for more clarity for severe, however agreement on an inch or so of rain is there

[tron777]

A marginal risk for everyone currently from the SPC for Thursday.

day3otlk_0730.gif

[tron777]

CB Blog update on Thursday. It's a good write up showing you the individual models with regard to rainfall totals and wind gust potential should any stronger t-storms develop.

https://kyweathercenter.com/?p=48332

[tpweather]

Good Morning. Beautiful day yesterday here in SC but will be trending towards a wetter pattern which has been the norm the almost 2 years I have been down here. Bgoney love the post about Russia and the cold which shows how strong the PV is this time of year. Concerning severe weather and I believe there will be some severe weather locally but what type is the key. Many times during the colder months severe weather tends to lead to more of a heavy rain system but we are in spring and the threats can be strong thunderstorms that can produce tornado's or very strong winds and hail. At this point I believe the wind energy is key and with a system that is somewhat strange moving almost south to north this storm could get strong rather quickly which is what the Euro shows. I agree the Euro has not been great with the strength of these storm for several months but its not like the gfs has done much better. I do believe we need another day but I look for the gfs to trend towards the euro. BTW beautiful sunrise this morning down here and still have another dry day before the rains begin and still have plenty of work outside to work on. Finally they lowered the age for the vaccine and have it scheduled for April 13th.

[tron777]

Good morning Tim! Good news on the vaccine front for you my friend.

In terms of the GFS, remember we're on the upgraded version now so it'll take some time to see how it stacks up against the Euro and other models. The Euro maybe too strong as you and Bgoney have mentioned, but I don't think the GFS's weaker solution is right either. Somewhere in the middle should be the way to go. I like the SPC's marginal risk at this time for us. Agree with you also Tim that we need a couple more days to look at things. Not only will the strength of the low dictate what happens, but the timing of the cold front will as well. Could be a late day or early overnight event. We'll just have to wait and see.

[tron777]

StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/03/23/goode- ... ther-blog/

[cloudy72]

Will be curious to see if the Euro severe threat for the THU timeframe persists in the model runs today. It has been advertising a pretty decent high wind signal over the past several runs for THU night/FRI AM...this is the 06z run from this morning for DAY.

ecmwf-ensemble-KDAY-indiv_gust-6479200.png

[tron777]

Euro shows winds gusting to 60 mph for many of us if that solution is correct of course. We will see some pretty good winds regardless of strong t-storms. I think gusts over 40 are possible either way. That is not severe mind you, but if the Euro pans out then it will be.

[tpweather]

Nam is starting to get in the range for the possible stormy period and does have some decent pockets of strong storms. No doubt will be some heavy rain and strong winds but will there be any tornado's is a big question.

[cloudy72]

Yeah NAM not quite as bullish as Euro - still has 40-45 mph gusts for Thu-Thu night

[cloudy72]

Seeing eerily similar signs to last week's Dixie outbreak for this Thursday.....75-90% SigTor in Mississippi....again!

SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f060.gif

[tpweather]

Gfs heading towards the Euro with a more northerly track of the low which I believe makes sense.

[BookNerdCarp]

Good Morning. Beautiful day yesterday here in SC but will be trending towards a wetter pattern which has been the norm the almost 2 years I have been down here. Bgoney love the post about Russia and the cold which shows how strong the PV is this time of year. Concerning severe weather and I believe there will be some severe weather locally but what type is the key. Many times during the colder months severe weather tends to lead to more of a heavy rain system but we are in spring and the threats can be strong thunderstorms that can produce tornado's or very strong winds and hail. At this point I believe the wind energy is key and with a system that is somewhat strange moving almost south to north this storm could get strong rather quickly which is what the Euro shows. I agree the Euro has not been great with the strength of these storm for several months but its not like the gfs has done much better. I do believe we need another day but I look for the gfs to trend towards the euro. BTW beautiful sunrise this morning down here and still have another dry day before the rains begin and still have plenty of work outside to work on. Finally they lowered the age for the vaccine and have it scheduled for April 13th.

As a teacher I have had both of my vaccines. I had Covid in January and it was no fun. Both shots made me feel like I had it again. About 48 hours with each shot.

[MVWxObserver]

Wouldn't be surprised at another Wind Advisory for sometime during the Thurs-Fri period.

Hopefully a decent day for next Tues 3/30 as my folks and myself have another trip to Kettering planned for some business.

Currently 59 and going for 67 later.

[MVWxObserver]

Good Morning. Beautiful day yesterday here in SC but will be trending towards a wetter pattern which has been the norm the almost 2 years I have been down here. Bgoney love the post about Russia and the cold which shows how strong the PV is this time of year. Concerning severe weather and I believe there will be some severe weather locally but what type is the key. Many times during the colder months severe weather tends to lead to more of a heavy rain system but we are in spring and the threats can be strong thunderstorms that can produce tornado's or very strong winds and hail. At this point I believe the wind energy is key and with a system that is somewhat strange moving almost south to north this storm could get strong rather quickly which is what the Euro shows. I agree the Euro has not been great with the strength of these storm for several months but its not like the gfs has done much better. I do believe we need another day but I look for the gfs to trend towards the euro. BTW beautiful sunrise this morning down here and still have another dry day before the rains begin and still have plenty of work outside to work on. Finally they lowered the age for the vaccine and have it scheduled for April 13th.

As a teacher I have had both of my vaccines. I had Covid in January and it was no fun. Both shots made me feel like I had it again. About 48 hours with each shot.

Hi Matt,

Did you get the Moderna or Pfizer?

I got my 1st dose of Moderna on March 12th and 2nd one will be April 9th. Thankfully, only had some soreness at the shot site from the 1st dose.

[cloudy72]

Welp - day two of new GFS, so let's see how he does. 12z has major wind threat here Thursday night......yikes!

gfs-deterministic-ohio-gust_swath_mph-6760000.png

[MVWxObserver]

Welp - day two of new GFS, so let's see how he does. 12z has major wind threat here Thursday night......yikes!


gfs-deterministic-ohio-gust_swath_mph-6760000.png

Guess I'll wait and put out the curbside cart at 6:30 Fri AM like last week lol.

[BookNerdCarp]

Good Morning. Beautiful day yesterday here in SC but will be trending towards a wetter pattern which has been the norm the almost 2 years I have been down here. Bgoney love the post about Russia and the cold which shows how strong the PV is this time of year. Concerning severe weather and I believe there will be some severe weather locally but what type is the key. Many times during the colder months severe weather tends to lead to more of a heavy rain system but we are in spring and the threats can be strong thunderstorms that can produce tornado's or very strong winds and hail. At this point I believe the wind energy is key and with a system that is somewhat strange moving almost south to north this storm could get strong rather quickly which is what the Euro shows. I agree the Euro has not been great with the strength of these storm for several months but its not like the gfs has done much better. I do believe we need another day but I look for the gfs to trend towards the euro. BTW beautiful sunrise this morning down here and still have another dry day before the rains begin and still have plenty of work outside to work on. Finally they lowered the age for the vaccine and have it scheduled for April 13th.

As a teacher I have had both of my vaccines. I had Covid in January and it was no fun. Both shots made me feel like I had it again. About 48 hours with each shot.

Hi Matt,

Did you get the Moderna or Pfizer?

I got my 1st dose of Moderna on March 12th and 2nd one will be April 9th. Thankfully, only had some soreness at the shot site from the 1st dose.

I had Moderna. They told me I would probably get sick since I had had Covid. First shot wasn't bad. Second knocked me on my butt for 48 hours.

[tpweather]

Good Morning. Beautiful day yesterday here in SC but will be trending towards a wetter pattern which has been the norm the almost 2 years I have been down here. Bgoney love the post about Russia and the cold which shows how strong the PV is this time of year. Concerning severe weather and I believe there will be some severe weather locally but what type is the key. Many times during the colder months severe weather tends to lead to more of a heavy rain system but we are in spring and the threats can be strong thunderstorms that can produce tornado's or very strong winds and hail. At this point I believe the wind energy is key and with a system that is somewhat strange moving almost south to north this storm could get strong rather quickly which is what the Euro shows. I agree the Euro has not been great with the strength of these storm for several months but its not like the gfs has done much better. I do believe we need another day but I look for the gfs to trend towards the euro. BTW beautiful sunrise this morning down here and still have another dry day before the rains begin and still have plenty of work outside to work on. Finally they lowered the age for the vaccine and have it scheduled for April 13th.

As a teacher I have had both of my vaccines. I had Covid in January and it was no fun. Both shots made me feel like I had it again. About 48 hours with each shot.

Matt I will be ready to feel bad as I usually do when I get the flu shot so I made sure no golf dates the following 2 days after each shot. I believe Pfizer is the one I will receive. I know my son had Moderna and felt terrible the next day

[tron777]

Wouldn't be surprised at another Wind Advisory for sometime during the Thurs-Fri period.

Hopefully a decent day for next Tues 3/30 as my folks and myself have another trip to Kettering planned for some business.

Currently 59 and going for 67 later.

I agree Eric. If the stronger low solution is correct, I believe we'll match wind advisory criteria late Thurs / Thurs night even without strong storms.

[tron777]

For severe wx concerns... the question will be, do we get showers and clouds most of the day Thursday which reduces the severe threat. Or, do we get a period of clearing so some instability can develop? Plenty of shear and helicity with this system and quite frankly, it won't take much CAPE to get things going. Damaging straight line winds would be the main hazard with this system should the stronger low solution be correct. We could also see brief isolated spin up's or QCLS tornadoes if you will, with the bowing segments. Don't see much of a large hail threat at this point. We have plenty of time to monitor this system and like I said this morning, the marginal risk is valid from the SPC at this time.