Absolute Vorticity

MD issued for flooding over KY for tonight from the WPC:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/ ... FCXYqvlKkQ

18Z RGEM is very strong with the departing low for tomorrow and slower so a longer deform band for all. 2-4" region wide wow!

Good Afternoon and my bucket list of a couples baby shower is done. Very nice couple and good friends of my daughter. I leave for a few hours and Les calls the NWS and made sure they put out an advisory for snow on Sunday. Do we see some ice underneath that snow is a bigger problem.

Tim cover the action please. Leaving for mass in a few mins.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 15, 2025 4:33 pm Tim cover the action please. Leaving for mass in a few mins.

Les I will take care of it sir

Can someone share the timing of the rain stopping and tuening to snow?

In the Kenwood area

After a break from the rain this afternoon though it was very misty the rain is heading back in for the evening. A very wet night and how much can we expect before a changeover to snow in the morning. No doubt 1-2 inches and some areas will get closer to 2.5 imo. Winds will pick up as well so a good night to stay home and follow the weather lol. Will discuss the winter aspect in the next hour or two.

My guess for the turnover to snow is early in the morning say around 6a or so. Problem before is will the temp get below 32 while the roads are still wet. The snow we can handle but getting a layer of ice on the ground first and no way to put any salt down can be a problem. A decent band in the 7a-11a period and yes 1-2 inches very possible and a few spots could get to 3 inches a little further north.

MattyD wrote: ↑Sat Feb 15, 2025 5:18 pm Can someone share the timing of the rain stopping and tuening to snow?

In the Kenwood area

It looks to change over to snow around the 6:00 am, give it take a little. It looks to really thump for about 3-4 hours. By 11:00 am everything should begin to wind down.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 15, 2025 4:11 pm 18Z RGEM is very strong with the departing low for tomorrow and slower so a longer deform band for all. 2-4" region wide wow!

Yea it shows a bigger hit for tomorrow than Wednesday

The RGEM I believe is to far south on Wednesday and expect it to move north with the snows over the next few days.

Just finished catching up on all the posts from today from Northern Michigan. It’s been glorious up here with 3 to 5 inches on both Friday and today and another 3 to 5 inches of lake effect forecast for tomorrow. While it’s been great, I’m just as excited about coming home on Tuesday with snow on the ground with a nice refresher possible Wednesday. That would be way cool. Thanks everyone for sharing the forecast details with all of us!!!

It was raining when I came outside after Church. Heavy rain now my temp is 41, dew is 40. Updated totals as of 7pm:

CVG - 0.68"
Me - 0.73"
Boone Co Mesonet - 0.79"

We're back down to 0.25" again for QPF next week on 18Z GFS. The 18Z Euro for the same time period gives us 0.19" of QPF. Glad I waited to start the thread.

MD issued for tornadoes ahead of the low over West TN and SW KY:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0100.html

A wet night ahead... beautiful frontogenic forcing over NKY and points SW.

Good Evening and yes not every forecast will end up perfect and models are just models but I believe some of the items we saw earlier this week tended to pan out over some of the recent models especially Friday. The warm front got stuck further south and when you have a wider area of heavy rain this morning the front was not moving and the reason we only got to 42 today. The period with lighter rain was probably a little longer than models showed yesterday. The heavy rain though for the evening is pretty much what the models showed and that is why heavy rain for the next several hours. So far 0.68 inches at CVG but I expect several hours of at least 0.25 per hour but there may be a few hours where we can get over .5 for an hour. So yes its going to add up and final totals will probably be in the 2-3 inch range..Models sometimes will try and spread out the rain over a general area but when a place like in southwest Kentucky today got tons of rain then other places will lose some of their rainfall. Still a really nice rainfall and sure there will be some minor flooding around here but nothing like folks to the south of here.

Both CVG / DAY got to 42 and CMH 40 today.

Not looking forward to this coming week's arctic blast like we had that week in Jan.

* Primary threats include...

A few tornadoes possible

Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

My nephew and his wife in Columbia, TN not far from Nashville are in the watch.

Starting to get winter storm watches for Kansas and Missouri for later Monday and Tuesday. That is the big system that should have some decent snows for us. Still too early for accumulations but things are starting to shape up nicely

I see some tornado warning for parts of northern Tn. Having Tornado's at night is bad enough but when they are mixed with heavy rain at the same time that is not good. What a dynamic system and imo one that we need to ended up stalling over eastern Canada on Monday. This would help in slowing down systems next week which gives them a chance to merge with other energy and become a much stronger storm.

We are at 1.11 for rainfall at CVG and plenty more to head this way. I still have some snow in places from earlier this week and that will no doubt be gone but just a few hours ago the snow was still in place. Good news it will be replaced Sunday morning. Sunday is an interesting day in itself but the headlines have been for the heavy rains. How quickly does the cold air arrive and is there a few hours with no precip. Not sure about the dry period but no doubt some ice could form quickly followed by a a few decent hours of snow that could give us an inch or two. Could there be more snow and I have seen systems like this that are so loaded with moisture back end snows overachieve which is usually the opposite of what we end up getting. Could somebody get 3 inches and sure that would not surprise me. Then as the day wears on snow showers later in the day with temps well below 32 so roads could become slick again and by Monday morning with temps in the teens no doubt some slick roads. Thunder heard for the 1st time so what a dynamic system and usually when you get thunder a nice round of heavy rain is on the doorstep

So these two days are rather wild and the system or systems mid-week could be more impressive in terms of snowfall.

Nam still looks good through hour 42. Shows the 50/50 low and the stronger that low is the better as this can help the trough coming in from the northwest to dive further southwest before heading eastward. If that trough is flat then sure we get some light snows to pass through here Tuesday-Thursday and sure we can get a couple of inches just because its so cold but a deeper trough gives us a much better shot of a snow storm that is over 4 inches.

With Les not posting tonight I am making a big stride in posts. I am within 18000 so Les watch out your lead is shrinking quickly lol.

Considerable thunder here.

Church closings are at a trickle here in the Miami Valley e.g. so far re the forecast for tomorrow. I expect mine here in Greenville to make the call eventually because the congregation is comprised mostly of senior citizens.

Currently 37 here in G'ville and progged for around 28 Sun morning.