Absolute Vorticity

Good Afternoon and watched Brian's video and at least he is seeing some of the items I see which is good news. Models still holding steady and the Euro suppresses everything to the south. Early in the week makes some sense but the end of next week the model is not picking up on some energy in the southwest and this is often the problem with the Euro. By the middle of next week the shape of the trough is northeast to southwest and usually at the end of the trough there is some energy that will form a storm. The gfs shows this and I believe that is a new trend for that model. So again keeping my forecast from last night and really nothing needs to change at this point. This could change by Friday and will once again look at the models then to see if any trends have continued or they all come to agreement which I doubt and really its just the air mass heading this way that models really don't see that often and yes it does make it a more complicated forecast which I believe Brian mentioned on his video.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jan 16, 2025 12:35 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 16, 2025 11:34 am

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Thu Jan 16, 2025 10:37 am For some reason my mind is stuck on the Jan 24th time frame for some good snow for the past week or so. Hope I don't jinx it now! Lol

12Z GFS is still throwing us a bone for that time period while the 12Z CMC still has the early next week snow storm. Both models are not backing down from their respective solutions.

I think the 24th starts the better return flow . Near that time Should start to see the western ridge retrograde and the eastern trough to follow moving west and lessening the dryer northern flow

GEFS members are a little nosier today for that time period so it's a start in the right direction.

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 16, 2025 12:52 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 16, 2025 12:31 pm

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 16, 2025 11:37 am Beautiful light snow has broken out here. another pack refresher perhaps?. my half inch snow pack was getting stale

Let us know how much you get Charles. Good luck on Sunday into Monday too. I am thinking that there could be a sneaky system that perhaps, could dump a few inches on you.

so far just a heavy dusting. I will post back later today on it. yeah there may be a little something Sunday night or Monday. have not heard any amounts but it will be a light event.

I agree. Maybe a 2-4" event if the snow gods are smiling.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jan 16, 2025 1:05 pm Good Afternoon and watched Brian's video and at least he is seeing some of the items I see which is good news. Models still holding steady and the Euro suppresses everything to the south. Early in the week makes some sense but the end of next week the model is not picking up on some energy in the southwest and this is often the problem with the Euro. By the middle of next week the shape of the trough is northeast to southwest and usually at the end of the trough there is some energy that will form a storm. The gfs shows this and I believe that is a new trend for that model. So again keeping my forecast from last night and really nothing needs to change at this point. This could change by Friday and will once again look at the models then to see if any trends have continued or they all come to agreement which I doubt and really its just the air mass heading this way that models really don't see that often and yes it does make it a more complicated forecast which I believe Brian mentioned on his video.

I still believe that the Euro is overdoing the cold. However, the model is trying to cook something up around / after the 27th.

Cvg still reporting a snow depth of 5”

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jan 16, 2025 1:50 pm Cvg still reporting a snow depth of 5”

That seems correct and with the ice underneath it takes longer to melt. Interesting late Friday/early Saturday and though temps will be above 32 some side roads and especially sidewalks could end up with a few spots with ice on them and the old black ice issue. My mother-n-law fell maybe 10-15 years ago with a similar situation where it had been cold for so long and yes it was raining and around 35 but the sidewalk was ice and she fell. Good tip for us older folks especially lol

Much of the snow from southern Kentucky and southward has melted though some of the higher terrain in the Ozarks will still have some snow. Still not a big snow pack to the north either we just happen to be in the place with some of the highest remaining snow on the ground besides near the lakes. Yes the cold coming down is cold but if we had more snow on the ground in the northern half of the country then you could be talking temps well below zero Monday and maybe Tuesday. Still can get to zero but it seems with the low pressure anchored over the Hudson Bay you get those spokes of energy that can produce a few snow showers but also that keeps us with more clouds and most likely keeps the winds up as well.

Pretty windy out there! CVG has been gusting to 30-35 mph.

Just got home to Tipp from Brookville. Mist and drizzle on the windshield during most of the drive ending just before I got home. Car Temp said 30 degrees. Thankfully is stopped or it could have led to some problems with the cold surfaces as Tim alluded to earlier.

Long range EU ensemble’s catching on to that last week of return flow

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jan 16, 2025 3:55 pm Long range EU ensemble’s catching on to that last week of return flow




IMG_3057.jpeg

As along we we're on the N side of the baroclinic boundary we could certainly see a nice overrunning event. We can get some heavy snow in those (and frz rain too lol)

18Z GFS is really coming in amp'ed up now towards the end of next week.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 16, 2025 5:24 pm 18Z GFS is really coming in amp'ed up now towards the end of next week.

That would work. You can see the ridge shift westward and a new trough responds by dropping down along the spine of the Rockies resulting in a SW flow

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jan 16, 2025 5:34 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 16, 2025 5:24 pm 18Z GFS is really coming in amp'ed up now towards the end of next week.

That would work. You can see the ridge shift westward and a new trough responds by dropping down along the spine of the Rockies resulting in a SW flow

For sure. Strong WAA with arctic air around is going to be fun to track over the next week. We've gotten some big snows in the past with weak 1005-1010 MB type lows along a baroclinic zone. Looks like the 18Z GFS is a little stronger due to better wave spacing. More ridging out ahead of it so spacing between any early next week Southern US system and the next one for the Thurs / Friday timeframe is critical. It is probably going to be another tricky set up where we won't know the outcome for 72 hours or so out.

The Euro family of models continues to squash everything to the south for next week and we're just cold and dry. The Canadian isn't doing anything because it is so aggressive with the Southern US storm early next week that it's pretty much putting all of its eggs in one basket. The GEFS keeps trending more north with its QPF field so it is picking up on what the Operational GFS is trying to sell us. We'll have a better chance in my mind if the models bail on early next week or at least don't keep it as strong like the Canadian and we'll be in better shape for Thurs / Fri to do something for us.

Good Evening and seems like models may be trying to change somewhat. Still have no changes of how the next week plays out and again probably at least until the afternoon models on Friday that we see more in the way of changes that hopefully gets the models closer together on a possible outcome. Still watching Sunday and though I believe we are on the northern end of snow I still believe that southeast Kentucky should have an advisory sometime this weekend. These arctic fronts just have some problems getting over the mountains and when that happens the front stalls for awhile and you tend to get energy between the arctic air the air we are seeing and the air that is ahead of the front. It does look like any snow early in the week will stay south of here but again snow a little further north than models show and then late next week still looks great for a really nice system to head towards us and the Tn Valley. The extended after that looks busy as well but a more westward shift of the troughs so then storms can become bigger but also we will start to throw all types of precip in the mix.

For here in G'ville ...

I'll be BRUTALLY honest about those brutal temps! NOT looking forward to 'em!

Sunday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around -7.

M.L.King Day

Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near 3.

Monday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around -7.

Tuesday

Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near 3.

Tuesday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around -7.

CVG reached 35 and both DAY / CMH 31 today.

Good morning guys! Happy Friday to you all. No changes this morning from the Big 3 global models. They all agree on the ran ending as some flakes overnight and tomorrow. CMC is still the most aggressive for Sunday flakes as well as with the early next week Southern US storm. For us by Thurs and Fri, the GFS is still looing great but the CMC and Euro still say nope. Euro tries to do something next weekend instead. GEFS still is trending towards the OP GFS while the EPS has nothing like the OP Euro. We watch and wait.

Think the models are slowly getting to what the EU has been showing for a while after this weekend and most of next week with systems and moisture staying south of the OV . The SE ridge is too far east to have much influence on a return flow for next week. We’ll have to see how things shape up after that with the western ridge possibly retrograding and trough doing the same

6Z GFS took a step towards the Euro and CMC showing a better early next week Southern US storm, which in turn weakens our chance for next Thurs and Fri.

Ensembles look awesome for return moisture for the last week of the month!!!!

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2025 5:54 am Ensembles look awesome for return moisture for the last week of the month!!!!

And it's not a torch either. Could we get something cooking after the cold blast next week? Usually when you re coming out of a mega cold pattern, it's a good time to cash in. We'll have to see where the dividing line is. I-70, the River, etc. once we get closer.

Clear skies here and dropped to 23

25 for a low at CVG.