Absolute Vorticity

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat Dec 21, 2024 11:16 am Nice!!! The little lights aren’t twinkling Clark.

I know Art, and thanks for noticing!

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Dec 21, 2024 11:10 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 21, 2024 10:51 am We're ready for Christmas Eve celebrations here when my Brother and the kids come.


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Perfect

Thanks Tim! Just wish we'd get a little snow.

4 new inches so far. 2-4+ more inches likely by the time this lake effect event ends tonight.
Closing in on 3 feet of snow for the Winter so far in Chardon, Ohio.

Snowbrain2 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 21, 2024 11:49 am
4 new inches so far. 2-4+ more inches likely by the time this lake effect event ends tonight.
Closing in on 3 feet of snow for the Winter so far in Chardon, Ohio.

That looks like a Holiday picture postcard Jeff! Awesome!

LOL @ the 12Z GFS bringing a chunk of the PV into Iowa in early January.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 21, 2024 10:51 am We're ready for Christmas Eve celebrations here when my Brother and the kids come.


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Hey Les, beautiful tree and presents. My favorite part is your mount on the wall...is that a largemouth?

snowbo wrote: ↑Sat Dec 21, 2024 12:24 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 21, 2024 10:51 am We're ready for Christmas Eve celebrations here when my Brother and the kids come.


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Hey Les, beautiful tree and presents. My favorite part is your mount on the wall...is that a largemouth?

Thanks Bo! No, it's a small mouth caught by my Dad.

I like the 12Z Euro's progression of the pattern change. Snow storm over the Midwest for NYD then we turn cold and dry. As we come out of it, a southern stream system organizes over the S Plains and heads NE. 1st possible event Jan 4-8th time frame. I think as the trough backs west, Weeks 2 and 3 are favorable for Midwest and OV snow storms. Just my opinion on how I feel that the pattern progresses. Phase 7 MJO and if we can get close to 8 before it dies, should be good enough.

A written update from DT: on the longer term:

CVG got to 33, DAY 31 and CMH 30 on Sat.

ended up with 4" Saterday morning. it was quite cold windy and snow flurries all day also. going to be even colder today. this is a little taste of what your going to feel next month when we get another arctic hammer to drop down.

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 22, 2024 1:16 am ended up with 4" Saterday morning. it was quite cold windy and snow flurries all day also. going to be even colder today. this is a little taste of what your going to feel next month when we get another arctic hammer to drop down.

Nice man! How are you doing on the season?

Good morning! 19 CVG as of 4am, 15 as of this post IMBY. Headed out to Church then breakfast. Nothing new to report from seeing the overnight models. January is just too far off yet as far as being able to tell how our snow chances will go. Rain chances and warmer air is our first thing we've got to get thru.

No changes from yesterday’s activity in the tropics. A lot of activity in phase 5 and slightly less in 6

Good Morning and enjoy the sun today because much of the week plenty of clouds and periods of rain. How much rain for the week and probably nearing an inch or so but that is for the entire week and then we see if a bigger system happens between the 28th-31st.

Signs point to a colder January and that has not changed but will there be snow and where will the coldest of air reside. The pattern so far this season is to have the coldest of air in the eastern 1/3rd of the country and models are hinting at that for January but imo that expands westward some but how far west and does this help us in the snow part of the forecast.

Looks like the models are showing the blocking that we need for the cold and even some true arctic air to invade the USA. Snow cover this year is one thing we look at and southern Canada has done very well since early November and though they may get somewhat milder but not an extended period and yes chances for the snow pack to once again add up. We talk about where the coldest of air is on the planet this time of year and really its been more on this side though not as cold compared to several years when the coldest was in Siberia. Many of the last several years the snow pack in northern China has been above normal but this season more on the average side plus not as far south as well.

Most of the models are showing the AO to go negative and that seems correct but what happens to the NAO is probably a bigger deal in terms of getting some decent snow. Yes we need this to go negative so systems slow up as they come across the country and though in December it has sort of been negative at times it really has not slowed down the pattern. If this gets to negative this can tend to have the bigger storms forming of the ast coast.

So again what do we see with the mjo and yes in phase 6 headed to phase 7 but then here is one thing we need to watch. Does it continue and hit phase 8 but does it head towards phase 1 and 2 which would be great for snow and cold lovers but what happens if it just dies in the cod then yes we get colder but how long. More later today

Temps bottomed out on the mid and upper teens for most of the region. Models did a good job in that department except for the Canadian models , they were awful 10-20+degrees off

I was not paying attention to the models on temps and which way was the CMC off. I very seldom use models for temps as that is normally an easy call except with cloudy days in the winter after a cold front and models still have problems with this outcome and not sure why since there is plenty of data showing they almost always go to high.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Dec 22, 2024 11:13 am I was not paying attention to the models on temps and which way was the CMC off. I very seldom use models for temps as that is normally an easy call except with cloudy days in the winter after a cold front and models still have problems with this outcome and not sure why since there is plenty of data showing they almost always go to high.

From day 7 to one day out it was as mentioned 10-20+ degrees off. It’s been that way for almost every cold frontal passage since October. According to the CMC we should have had a hard freeze 6-8 weeks sooner than we did, for several dates. I expect models to be somewhere in the 3-6 degree range to be off. But when the CMC is off ,it’s crazy off

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Dec 22, 2024 12:17 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Dec 22, 2024 11:13 am I was not paying attention to the models on temps and which way was the CMC off. I very seldom use models for temps as that is normally an easy call except with cloudy days in the winter after a cold front and models still have problems with this outcome and not sure why since there is plenty of data showing they almost always go to high.

From day 7 to one day out it was as mentioned 10-20+ degrees off. It’s been that way for almost every cold frontal passage since October. According to the CMC we should have had a hard freeze 6-8 weeks sooner than we did, for several dates. I expect models to be somewhere in the 3-6 degree range to be off. But when the CMC is off ,it’s crazy off

Thanks and had no ideal. Yes the CMC is normally colder than the other two main models and we adjust for that like we adjust for the gfs being to fast with systems and the Euro holding back energy in the southwest. I wonder why they were so far off and that seems like a major problem with the model and like you mention a 3-6 degree range is still no great but 10-20 seems wild.