Absolute Vorticity

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Oct 28, 2024 9:26 am Record mean max temps (hi/lo ave) is 70 for both Tuesday/wed. Top 5 hottest is a slam dunk for both and #1 spot is definitely on the table for hottest Oct. 29/30th on record

I saw where ILN has raised temps for CVG. 80 Tues and in the lower 80s for Wed.

dammit.

That was not the video I wanted to see from Brain re: Halloween.

House of Cards wrote: ↑Mon Oct 28, 2024 1:02 pm That was not the video I wanted to see from Brain re: Halloween.

Don't look at the 12Z GFS either.

Good Afternoon and just got back from a wonderful trip to Wisconsin. My son took me to Green Bay and had a tour of Lambeau Field. What a nice place and much bigger than I expected. Sidelines though very narrow and close to the fans which I love. Took a haunted corn maze on Friday night and probably the best haunted anything I have ever gone too. Was temps in the low 40's,nice breeze and clear sky. Will start to look at info for the upcoming week later today but hope everyone is doing well and Les I will have that snowfall contest entry soon lol

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Oct 28, 2024 3:29 pm Good Afternoon and just got back from a wonderful trip to Wisconsin. My son took me to Green Bay and had a tour of Lambeau Field. What a nice place and much bigger than I expected. Sidelines though very narrow and close to the fans which I love. Took a haunted corn maze on Friday night and probably the best haunted anything I have ever gone too. Was temps in the low 40's,nice breeze and clear sky. Will start to look at info for the upcoming week later today but hope everyone is doing well and Les I will have that snowfall contest entry soon lol

You have a couple of days Tim, it's all good! My Lions will be at Lambeau come Sunday afternoon.

Looking like we'll have temps in the 60s for the kiddies with showers and breezy conditions if the models hold.

CVG reached 69 and both DAY / CMH 68 today.

this heat wave coming is bad news for our regions also since we are bone dry. there is burn bans and wild fires breaking out almost on a regular basis now . November will be just as bad if not worse if things dont change

Good morning all! Please see the below from the boys:

Records for today per ULN:

CVG 83F 1927
CMH 80F 1922, 1900
DAY 82F 1900

And tomorrow:

CVG 83F 1927
CMH 80F 1927
DAY 81 1927, 1901

Thoughts on Halloween from the boys:

Strengthening low level southwest flow will lead to moisture
advection into our area through the day on Thursday ahead of an
approaching cold front. Fairly widespread showers will spread into
our area from the west ahead of the front, mainly Thursday afternoon
into Thursday evening. The showers will then taper off from the west
Thursday night as the cold front moves through. Instability will
remain fairly marginal so expect any thunder chances to be limited.
Breezy southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to around 35 mph
will also be possible on Thursday. Temperatures on Thursday will
range from the low 70s in the northwest to the upper 70s in the
southeast but these may begin to drop off late in the day across
our northwest, depending on the exact timing of the front.

Over a month since we’ve had rain and of course it has to rain on Halloween. For the Dayton/Cbus/Cvg region I think a half inch or less should be the rule, maybe a tad more in isolated fashion.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Oct 29, 2024 5:53 am Over a month since we’ve had rain and of course it has to rain on Halloween. For the Dayton/Cbus/Cvg region I think a half inch or less should be the rule, maybe a tad more in isolated fashion.

I think the rain will be light overall unless a few t-storms are able to develop then you can get a 1/2" plus as you mentioned. To me, the heaviest totals will be north and west in our forecast area and lighter amounts as one heads south and east. Timing wise it looks certainly impact trick-or-treat time for the kiddos. We will see gusty winds to 30 mph overall and with any t-storms, 40 mph would be possible there. Not expecting any severe storms at all.

Good Morning and nice to be back and really not much has changed since last Wednesday. Concerning temps today and Wednesday and this time I can see 80 either day and the reasoning is the strong south to southwest winds bringing up mild air. Bad news for Halloween as the rain looks to hit later afternoon and evening but it least will be mild for the kids. Will give my thoughts for the November in the correct area lol

60 this morning at CVG and we will likely start tomorrow in the 60s as well. Crazy, crazy for late October.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 29, 2024 6:04 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Oct 29, 2024 5:53 am Over a month since we’ve had rain and of course it has to rain on Halloween. For the Dayton/Cbus/Cvg region I think a half inch or less should be the rule, maybe a tad more in isolated fashion.

I think the rain will be light overall unless a few t-storms are able to develop then you can get a 1/2" plus as you mentioned. To me, the heaviest totals will be north and west in our forecast area and lighter amounts as one heads south and east. Timing wise it looks certainly impact trick-or-treat time for the kiddos. We will see gusty winds to 30 mph overall and with any t-storms, 40 mph would be possible there. Not expecting any severe storms at all.

Too bad in a way that we can't even get into a Marginal risk for Halloween afternoon just to make the atmosphere a bit more spooky for the ghouls and goblins.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Oct 29, 2024 8:56 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 29, 2024 6:04 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Oct 29, 2024 5:53 am Over a month since we’ve had rain and of course it has to rain on Halloween. For the Dayton/Cbus/Cvg region I think a half inch or less should be the rule, maybe a tad more in isolated fashion.

I think the rain will be light overall unless a few t-storms are able to develop then you can get a 1/2" plus as you mentioned. To me, the heaviest totals will be north and west in our forecast area and lighter amounts as one heads south and east. Timing wise it looks certainly impact trick-or-treat time for the kiddos. We will see gusty winds to 30 mph overall and with any t-storms, 40 mph would be possible there. Not expecting any severe storms at all.

Too bad in a way that we can't even get into a Marginal risk for Halloween afternoon just to make the atmosphere a bit more spooky for the ghouls and goblins.

Hey Eric, the nice item is the wind so hopefully the leaves will be blowing down the street but the wet ground may cause the leaves to stay in place more than normal

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Oct 29, 2024 9:00 am

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Oct 29, 2024 8:56 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 29, 2024 6:04 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Oct 29, 2024 5:53 am Over a month since we’ve had rain and of course it has to rain on Halloween. For the Dayton/Cbus/Cvg region I think a half inch or less should be the rule, maybe a tad more in isolated fashion.

I think the rain will be light overall unless a few t-storms are able to develop then you can get a 1/2" plus as you mentioned. To me, the heaviest totals will be north and west in our forecast area and lighter amounts as one heads south and east. Timing wise it looks certainly impact trick-or-treat time for the kiddos. We will see gusty winds to 30 mph overall and with any t-storms, 40 mph would be possible there. Not expecting any severe storms at all.

Too bad in a way that we can't even get into a Marginal risk for Halloween afternoon just to make the atmosphere a bit more spooky for the ghouls and goblins.

Hey Eric, the nice item is the wind so hopefully the leaves will be blowing down the street but the wet ground may cause the leaves to stay in place more than normal

The quicker the leaves come down the better in my opinion. However, the oaks have not even started yet. Still green IMBY, Wish we'd get a freeze to speed up the process but that isn't happening anytime soon.

For Halloween, The 12Z NAM is showing more of a broken line of showers so some areas won't see much rain at all if this is correct. Looks like more of a KY deal versus Ohio as far as duration and amounts are concerned. The 12Z GFS has the same general idea so this may not be as bad for the kiddos depending on where you live. Bad news for the drought since we need the rain, but better news for the trick-or-treaters.

Good Afternoon and nice mild and breezy day. Concerning the leaves and in northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin they are near peak which is late for them but where my son lives in northern Wisconsin peak had already happened before I got there last week. Looks like once again this year they may get snow on Halloween but probably no more than a dusting and temps have been rather mild for them as well. They had a terrible season last year in terms of snowfall but this year expecting more than normal imo as they should no doubt be on the colder side of many systems this winter but also close enough to have plentiful moisture with several storms.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 29, 2024 11:57 am For Halloween, The 12Z NAM is showing more of a broken line of showers so some areas won't see much rain at all if this is correct. Looks like more of a KY deal versus Ohio as far as duration and amounts are concerned. The 12Z GFS has the same general idea so this may not be as bad for the kiddos depending on where you live. Bad news for the drought since we need the rain, but better news for the trick-or-treaters.

Unfortunately for the drought, I think that’s the way to go . That was my thinking with the half inch or less , some areas in tri-state triangle won’t see much at all

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Oct 29, 2024 12:26 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 29, 2024 11:57 am For Halloween, The 12Z NAM is showing more of a broken line of showers so some areas won't see much rain at all if this is correct. Looks like more of a KY deal versus Ohio as far as duration and amounts are concerned. The 12Z GFS has the same general idea so this may not be as bad for the kiddos depending on where you live. Bad news for the drought since we need the rain, but better news for the trick-or-treaters.

Unfortunately for the drought, I think that’s the way to go . That was my thinking with the half inch or less , some areas in tri-state triangle won’t see much at all

Yep! This post probably does belong in the November thread but I am seeing a continued trend. Look at the 12Z GFS. Each front that tries to come in, runs into a brick wall (the Bermuda high) and it runs out of gas so to speak. Not good in terms of getting the needed moisture in here.

GFS has done pretty well with the Halloween event for some time now. It was the first one to jump ship on a widespread heavy rain Halloween and for the first few days of November with the EU and AI slowly giving in

73 as of 1pm. Let's see how much higher we can get this afternoon. Still expecting CVG to not drop below 60 tonight.