Absolute Vorticity

On a side note the baseball games between the Mets and Braves will be postponed until next Monday. Both are fighting for a playoff birth and no doubt this will somewhat delay the playoffs next week. Les your tigers are almost there and what a year that the Lions and Tigers make the playoffs. I will be rooting for them big time especially if they must play the Yankees.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Sep 26, 2024 7:11 am On a side note the baseball games between the Mets and Braves will be postponed until next Monday. Both are fighting for a playoff birth and no doubt this will somewhat delay the playoffs next week. Les your tigers are almost there and what a year that the Lions and Tigers make the playoffs. I will be rooting for them big time especially if they must play the Yankees.

Thank you Tim! We need all the support we can get. Tigers magic number is 3 with 4 games to go!

This is similar to a winter type distribution of accumulations across the region, at least atm, where we have different zones of amounts. In this case I would stay with the fairly large spread of 1-3” amounts but for a zone that includes Ohio counties bordering the river and south , then a zone north of that to I70 to include the Dayton/ Columbus crew in the spread of .50-2.00”

6-10"+ of rain has already fallen across the S apps. The mountains of Western NC have been particularly hard hit with flooding and mudslides already occurring. This is well ahead of Helene so the inland flash flooding situation in some areas will be catastrophic IMO.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 26, 2024 7:52 am 6-10"+ of rain has already fallen across the S apps. The mountains of Western NC have been particularly hard hit with flooding and mudslides already occurring. This is well ahead of Helene so the inland flash flooding situation in some areas will be catastrophic IMO.

Lucky I am not traveling to SC any longer because the I-40 from Knoxville to Asheville would not be a fun ride

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Sep 26, 2024 7:57 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 26, 2024 7:52 am 6-10"+ of rain has already fallen across the S apps. The mountains of Western NC have been particularly hard hit with flooding and mudslides already occurring. This is well ahead of Helene so the inland flash flooding situation in some areas will be catastrophic IMO.

Lucky I am not traveling to SC any longer because the I-40 from Knoxville to Asheville would not be a fun ride

There was a microburst that hit Greenville the other day Tim so the trees around there are already in a weakened state, Very thankful you aren't there for this one!

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 26, 2024 7:59 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Sep 26, 2024 7:57 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 26, 2024 7:52 am 6-10"+ of rain has already fallen across the S apps. The mountains of Western NC have been particularly hard hit with flooding and mudslides already occurring. This is well ahead of Helene so the inland flash flooding situation in some areas will be catastrophic IMO.

Lucky I am not traveling to SC any longer because the I-40 from Knoxville to Asheville would not be a fun ride

There was a microburst that hit Greenville the other day Tim so the trees around there are already in a weakened state, Very thankful you aren't there for this one!

Les we had a huge oak tree behind the house in SC. Was always worried about the tree falling on the house. Glad I am no longer in that area

Yesterday the Hurricane had much of the action on the southwest side but that has changed overnight and we are talking the east and north side with the strongest winds. Latest is the track is still slightly moving to the east. Will watch this all day and my guess will hit Cat 3 by later this afternoon and will it get to Cat 4 before it makes landfall. Still believe the storm is a tad slower than models showed so probably wont make landfall until maybe 2 or 3am Friday. What makes this storm more interesting is the upper low west of here. If that low was not there this storm would head up the eastern side of the mountains and we would just get some light rain at best. So yes rare is the key word on this storm and rather wild but with a drought in many areas in the Ohio Valley and in the app mountains and we are getting such a huge amount in a quick period

I don't know if we will make high wind criteria locally but it'll be close for the counties near / S of the OH river. It'll be interesting to see if we can get under a wind advisory for tomorrow. We'll see if ILN issues one with their afternoon package.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 26, 2024 8:12 am I don't know if we will make high wind criteria locally but it'll be close for the counties near / S of the OH river. It'll be interesting to see if we can get under a wind advisory for tomorrow. We'll see if ILN issues one with their afternoon package.

Going to be close Les and my guess we could see one that last say 6-8 hours on Friday.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Sep 26, 2024 8:40 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 26, 2024 8:12 am I don't know if we will make high wind criteria locally but it'll be close for the counties near / S of the OH river. It'll be interesting to see if we can get under a wind advisory for tomorrow. We'll see if ILN issues one with their afternoon package.

Going to be close Les and my guess we could see one that last say 6-8 hours on Friday.

It is close. The boys had this to say from their overnight discussion:

In addition, winds will be increasing as the pressure gradient
tightens with the approach of the remnants. There will be a very
strong low level jet, but with a very moist environment, expect
mixing to not be very deep. However, it will not have to in
order to get some rather gusty winds. At this point, have kept
winds below advisory criteria, but there is certainly room for
those gusts to be higher.

The weather channel has increase the rain totals for our local area and they are going with 3-5 inches. With the track of the Hurricane further east I believe this also allows the upper low to drift east as well. The Hurricane will have waves of rainfall that go southeast to northwest before they hit a block somewhere over central Indiana. Will wait until noon for my final forecast but leaning towards higher totals. Also with the further eastward path this helps in places like Atlanta and yes they will still get hit hard but the brunt of the storm may be just off to the east of the city. This is also true in Nashville as well. Again we know these systems have a mind of their own. My guess central and southern Kentucky will be put under a flash flood watch later today. Not sure we get to that point but its close.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Sep 26, 2024 9:17 am The weather channel has increase the rain totals for our local area and they are going with 3-5 inches. With the track of the Hurricane further east I believe this also allows the upper low to drift east as well. The Hurricane will have waves of rainfall that go southeast to northwest before they hit a block somewhere over central Indiana. Will wait until noon for my final forecast but leaning towards higher totals. Also with the further eastward path this helps in places like Atlanta and yes they will still get hit hard but the brunt of the storm may be just off to the east of the city. This is also true in Nashville as well. Again we know these systems have a mind of their own. My guess central and southern Kentucky will be put under a flash flood watch later today. Not sure we get to that point but its close.

The upper low is over West KY / SW IN area instead of in MO or AR. This is probably why we will be seeing a bit further eastward for the track of Helene. You can see this clearly on the water vapor loop:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/SAT_US/animwv.html

The RFC bumped their total a bit northward also, including another row of counties northward in the 2”+ range. Some good trends this morning
This stops at Sunday morning

Love to hear comments from other folks on here. If you have questions please ask and we may know the answer or may need some research. If you are new to the forum I hope the info we give out is correct as much as possible. Never a perfect forecast and rainfall totals are just an estimate over a larger area and with most storms going to be some misses but we try and give the best range possible. I guess one question is why the models are trending east and probably a couple of reasons. One is the storm is rare in many aspects so previous input is lower than normal. Second and I believe with the Hurricane in the Central Atlantic named Issac has got stronger but also is starting to move east and this also allows the high pressure over the western Atlantic off the southeast coast is moving slightly further east as well and this gives Helene a little better option to head eastward. One more item that will determine rainfall totals is the transfer of the rains from the Hurricane to the upper system in western Kentucky. We see this many times in the winter with a transfer of energy from the Ohio Valley to a developing storm off the east coast. This time sort of complete opposite and transfer to a system west of the main storm. Again this is a rare storm in many aspects so my guess we will have some surprises before the storm is history. Still going with a later landfall and still believe 2 or 3am though most models are for late this evening.

Channel 5 here in Cincinnati is still going with 0.5- 1.5 inches. I know they live and die by the Euro model but even that model is higher with totals. Not sure what is going on and my guess they will increase totals this afternoon. I know its hard to change a forecast you believe in and I am a stubborn old man but sometimes either the models or what is exactly happening will sooner or later make you change your forecast.

IMO, Helene should make landfall in FL around 10 or 11pm this evening. The models from early this morning had it land falling a bit too fast around 7 or 8pm. Hopefully the center is East of Tallahassee, which it should be based on the position of the upper low, which I just talked about.

Les the Hurricane will need to pick up speed to make landfall by midnight and yes the forward speed will pick up later today but at the moment only 12 mph and just a point of reference is if this speed continued the landfall would be closer to 6am on Friday but I do expect the storm to move faster later today but sometimes we have seen storms sit off the coast for several hours before landfall and with the models heading somewhat east that adds at least 1-2 hours later for landfall

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Sep 26, 2024 9:58 am Les the Hurricane will need to pick up speed to make landfall by midnight and yes the forward speed will pick up later today but at the moment only 12 mph and just a point of reference is if this speed continued the landfall would be closer to 6am on Friday but I do expect the storm to move faster later today but sometimes we have seen storms sit off the coast for several hours before landfall and with the models heading somewhat east that adds at least 1-2 hours later for landfall

Agreed Tim... the storm is expected to pick up forward speed as the day wears on. We'll see what the 11am advisory says later. I expect the NHC's track to shift a bit more east. Also wondering if we don't have a Cat 3 by then too. It looks pretty good now on visible satellite.

My guess airline traffic on Friday and through the weekend is not going to be good. Atlanta is one of the busiest in the world and my guess they will be closed for a period of time. Tampa and St Pete airports closed today and we could see several bigger cities closing at times over the next 48 hours

Les I believe it will be a Cat 3 with the next update and its in the warmest part of the gulf of Mexico. Those waters cool some a tad further north but still very warm. Cat 4 is still possible as well later this evening and again strong Cat 3 or weak Cat 4 is not much difference.After the 11am advisory will give my final forecast and then start going into a now cast on Friday.

BG's Video is in progress...

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Sep 26, 2024 9:37 am Channel 5 here in Cincinnati is still going with 0.5- 1.5 inches. I know they live and die by the Euro model but even that model is higher with totals. Not sure what is going on and my guess they will increase totals this afternoon. I know its hard to change a forecast you believe in and I am a stubborn old man but sometimes either the models or what is exactly happening will sooner or later make you change your forecast.

Tim, Not a news weather watcher but I’m sure they will. Is this their total through the weekend ?. I think why they haven’t is simply Kevin hasn’t gone over the data yet, and hasn’t “approved “ of an increase. Not a good policy if so but I’m just throwing that out.

I am watching BG's video and WAVE 3's inhouse model has CVG gusting to 59 mph Fri afternoon around 4pm. Not good if this is correct. I would prepare for a possible power outage just to be on the safe side, esp if you live near / S of the River.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Sep 26, 2024 10:09 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Sep 26, 2024 9:37 am Channel 5 here in Cincinnati is still going with 0.5- 1.5 inches. I know they live and die by the Euro model but even that model is higher with totals. Not sure what is going on and my guess they will increase totals this afternoon. I know its hard to change a forecast you believe in and I am a stubborn old man but sometimes either the models or what is exactly happening will sooner or later make you change your forecast.

Tim, Not a news weather watcher but I’m sure they will. Is this their total through the weekend ?. I think why they haven’t is simply Kevin hasn’t gone over the data yet, and hasn’t “approved “ of an increase. Not a good policy if so but I’m just throwing that out.

Hey Bgoney and I watch him or really just the news between 5-530pm and I know for the most part what his forecast is since they rely so heavily on the Euro. You may be correct they need his approval and so much tied to contracts and the models and I agree not a good policy. Sure they will change this afternoon and my guess probably in the works but will check at 5pm once again

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 26, 2024 10:11 am I am watching BG's video and WAVE 3's inhouse model has CVG gusting to 59 mph Fri afternoon around 4pm. Not good if this is correct. I would prepare for a possible power outage just to be on the safe side, esp if you live near / S of the River.

I agree Les and not expecting widespread outages locally but south of here in Tennessee,Georgia,the Carolina's and Florida those outages will be widespread and it may take several days because of how large this system is and you are not getting all the normal crews into those areas because they are needed at home. Brian's video wonderful and he really is so good and he mentions everything we talk about on here for the most part. Rare storm so yes somewhat different outcomes. He mentioned how the rainfall over the past few days has no doubt made a difference with this system and with the upper system just hanging around we are lucky because without the upper system over the past several days and still ongoing we would have been sunny and the heat would have continued and the storm would have been well east of us