Absolute Vorticity

CVG got to 88, DAY 81 and CMH 82 on Thurs.

Good morning all! I'd like to begin my post this morning by wishing Leslie (kywthrluvr) a very happy birthday! Enjoy your day!!!

Weatherwise, we should see 90 is a possibility esp at CVG where the ground is bone dry. Then we get our scattered chance tomorrow for rain. After that a nice Sun to end the month.

Unrelenting pattern

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jun 28, 2024 4:39 am Unrelenting pattern

Yep! The rich get richer, the poor get poorer.

At 31 days now for cvg for the same period. Moved into second place

If CVG gets the shaft on Saturday, it will wind up being the second driest June on record. 0.80" is currently ranked as #2.

If we go back to when our drought pattern was in the beginning stages during the 3rd week in May , at 37 days an astonishing meager 1.27” total Cvg. Can also see how awful last June was

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jun 28, 2024 7:56 am If we go back to when our drought pattern was in the beginning stages during the 3rd week in May , at 37 days an astonishing meager 1.27” total Cvg. Can also see how awful last June was

I see 2007 on that list which was a terrible drought summer too. Aug of 2007 is the hottest August on record at CVG and I remember getting 4 or 5 days in a row at 100 degrees plus. That summer also had a developing La Nina which influenced the 07-08 winter with record breaking snows to our north and NW. We did not cash in until the big March of 2008 storm.

Les 2007 is very similar even though I believe we had more rain that spring compared to this year. Either way the faucet has stopped and I know over the years that was the worse year for bushes as I lost a few that year. Not sure how the tropics were that year but we know this year they are loaded and ready to unleash. I will need to look at the northern plains and upper mid-west that year to see if they were as wet and cool as this season as well. Many factors to look at and yes some patterns repeat themselves but we also need to look at other factors as well and of course the really cold air in Canada for June is important imo as this allows fronts to move a tad further south than normal and yes the east coast had their little heat spell but they may end up with very little heat if these fronts continue to work south and especially east

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jun 28, 2024 9:19 am Les 2007 is very similar even though I believe we had more rain that spring compared to this year. Either way the faucet has stopped and I know over the years that was the worse year for bushes as I lost a few that year. Not sure how the tropics were that year but we know this year they are loaded and ready to unleash. I will need to look at the northern plains and upper mid-west that year to see if they were as wet and cool as this season as well. Many factors to look at and yes some patterns repeat themselves but we also need to look at other factors as well and of course the really cold air in Canada for June is important imo as this allows fronts to move a tad further south than normal and yes the east coast had their little heat spell but they may end up with very little heat if these fronts continue to work south and especially east

Every ENSO event behaves differently but there are certainly a few similarities Tim for our local area when compared to 2007 that is for sure. On avg, most droughts usually start up in May and last thru Sept or Oct before the rains return. That has been my experience anyway living here for the past 44 years. Anyway... just hoping we can get some rain before my fireworks go off on the 6th to help dampen things down. It's really getting dry IMBY and it's getting a little concerning.

EDIT: I looked up the 2007 tropical season and there were 15 named storms (above avg) however most storms were weak and short lived.


Total depressions
17

Total storms
15

Hurricanes
6

Major hurricanes
2

Surprise, NAM has the front passing through near daybreak Sunday morning

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jun 28, 2024 11:03 am Surprise, NAM has the front passing through near daybreak Sunday morning

12Z HRRR is doing the same thing but the rainfall coverage is still awful. Most of the wind energy will be to our north unfortunately with this system as it has been with the last several,.

12Z GFS is a bit slower with the front as well although not quite to the extent as the NAM and HRRR.

88 as of 2pm at CVG so getting a 90 degree day for today is very possible.

Another 90 plus day. With the local area dry not taking much to get to 90 degrees. Areas to the west and also starting to see more towards the east over the next 7-10 days but we look to be in that wonderful dry spot so far this summer. Was outside this afternoon and it seemed really warm and compared to yesterday such a big difference. I agree about rain chances and sure some folks will get a shower or thundershower over the next 24-36 hours but again nothing even close to being a drought buster. Went on a nature trail which about 6 weeks ago was muddy and today your saw cracks in the ground in a shady area. This has no doubt been a drought that caught on quick and one many of us were talking about 2-3 months ago but was hoping that would not be the case. I know sometimes droughts are good to clear our some sick trees and plants but these sudden droughts are hard to watch.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 28, 2024 4:34 am Good morning all! I'd like to begin my post this morning by wishing Leslie (kywthrluvr) a very happy birthday! Enjoy your day!!!

Weatherwise, we should see 90 is a possibility esp at CVG where the ground is bone dry. Then we get our scattered chance tomorrow for rain. After that a nice Sun to end the month.

Thanks so much! Appreciate all that you all do to inform and educate. I’m retiring at the end of July so maybe I’ll have time to be a little more interactive. Stay cool

HAPPY BELATED BIRTHDAY LESLIE!!

I hope that you enjoyed your special day, Wxbuddy!

CVG reached 91, DAY 89'ed and CMH 90 on Fri.

Good morning all! Thanks Eric for updating the contest thread. I went fishing after work and didn't get home until very late. My Brother and I caught our 2 man limit of saugeye at Caesar's Creek Lake in about 3 hours. Good way for me to kick off my vacation!

Weatherwise, my low this morning, as well as CVG's was 80 degrees! It already feels terrible outside. Hopefully we can get some rain today, esp this afternoon and evening., Still going with a 50/50 chance. Good luck to all! This is it until the middle of next week.

Nice cluster of showers to cvglands Nw. A couple of hours worth of rain for that area. The same pattern of results for us , with cloud blow-off keeping our instability from rising to high. Isolated storms with some downpours for some lucky few

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat Jun 29, 2024 10:57 am Nice cluster of showers to cvglands Nw. A couple of hours worth of rain for that area. The same pattern of results for us , with cloud blow-off keeping our instability from rising to high. Isolated storms with some downpours for some lucky few

Just watered my plants. I know how this works. Won't get anything here and I'll be shocked if we actually do.

Some light sprinkles / rain is trying to push into the area. Not expecting much IMBY per the usual.

Getting some very very light rain here. Not really helping matters any. A trace thus far. 86 so far for my high today, 87 for CVG. That's probably going to be about it for today due to clouds and light showers.

Watch those Indy storms. Our severe threat is increasing.