Absolute Vorticity

CVG reached 55 and both DAY / CMH 50 today.

Good morning all! We are in the upper 20s right now on our way up into the 40s today. We should crack 60 tomorrow but a few showers came along with it in the afternoon ending Sat morning. Again, amounts are light. Sunday is a cool start but a nice afternoon in the 50s. Monday is now looking dry in the upper 60s then we get wet Mon ight thru about Wed. Heaviest rains come on Tuesday. We will work on amounts as we get closer.

GFS has our next system, Fri afternoon thru Sat with some rain. Easter is cold but dry. Euro wants and brings in a weaker cold front on Sat. So still some model disagreement for the end of next week.

I didn't see any frost this morning and I can see why.... the dew is only 11 at CVG. We have a desert like air mass across the region. Fire danger will remain elevated until we can get some decent rains which probably won't be until next week.

I like how Tuesday is shaping up for rainfall. We get a front coming in then it slows down as a low works up along it. If this solution is correct, I think up to an inch of rain is coming with this early next week system. That is going to be key to us getting a nice soaker out of the deal. Going to try and mow on Sunday for the first cutting of the season.

The dew point at CVG is now down to 9. Watch out for static electricity shocks this morning.

Had 23 when I left the house. ILN had a low of 22

CVG fell to 26 degrees.

Dropped to 24 in my hood. I keep putting off the first mow of the season, but I think this weekend I'm gonna have to pull the trigger! LOL

Lowest official temp I could find in Ohio was Washington CH with 18!

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 21, 2024 9:05 am Dropped to 24 in my hood. I keep putting off the first mow of the season, but I think this weekend I'm gonna have to pull the trigger! LOL

Same here Mike. Probably going to shoot for Sunday.

3rd day in a row for this SPS to be issued:

...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY...

Winds will be much lighter today, however dry conditions will
result in an increased fire danger today. Outdoor burning is not
recommended.

BG is live as of this post:

This looks like another day where highs will under perform. Upper 40s was the call and CVG is at 37 as of the 1pm reading. Low 40s maybe all we can do today. NE flow and some high clouds. Air mass is still very dry though. Upper level temps are still well below zero so pretty cold upstairs today and with a NE wind the upper levels won't be warming up any. The center of the high is over N Ohio.

Still looking at light rain tomorrow afternoon into early Sat morning then the better chance is still due in Mon night and Tues. Hopefully by early Wed it's out of here. I am planning on that right now. Still a question of the next one in terms of its arrival. Friday or Saturday? Stay tuned. For Easter, the early call is a cool day but dry / breezy.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 21, 2024 9:23 am 3rd day in a row for this SPS to be issued:

...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY...

Winds will be much lighter today, however dry conditions will
result in an increased fire danger today. Outdoor burning is not
recommended.

This is something you don't see often in our area during March. Usually dews are higher as we head into spring. This year somewhat different as we have some growth already but a portion of the PV has entered our area giving us really low dew points and that along with strong winds give us a better shot of having some increased fire danger plus many folks do their winter burning in March

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Mar 21, 2024 2:10 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 21, 2024 9:23 am 3rd day in a row for this SPS to be issued:

...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY...

Winds will be much lighter today, however dry conditions will
result in an increased fire danger today. Outdoor burning is not
recommended.

This is something you don't see often in our area during March. Usually dews are higher as we head into spring. This year somewhat different as we have some growth already but a portion of the PV has entered our area giving us really low dew points and that along with strong winds give us a better shot of having some increased fire danger plus many folks do their winter burning in March

Yes Sir Tim.... I am one of those people but now that has to wait until the fire danger lessens. Might be April the way things are going lol Hopefully early next week will deliver a good soaking which should ease the concern.

Often we see big temp changes when we have low dew points like today but with arctic air masses no so easy to warm up even this time of year. Friday looks interesting and models are sort of split on how warm we get and also with rain totals later in the day. l am going .10-.25 by Saturday morning and for temps that is a tough one depending on clouds so I will go with temps in the 54-58 range but yes there is bust potential and will watch this on Friday

I agree Tim... I went with 0.05 to 0.15" for the next weak system. I am really hoping early next week and the end of next week systems can combine for a rainfall total of at least 1". The next 2 months need to make hay before the faucet gets shut off and the death ridge comes for us in summer.

CVG got to 45 and both DAY / CMH 43 today.

35 here this morning (33 CVG) and we'll have to wait and see how quick the clouds and / or showers come in since that will tell us how warm we get today. Hoping for the 60s but a temp bust in the 50s is certainly possible too. You can easily see per radar the two lows are not going to phase. An area of snow to our north, rain to our south and we'll get the leftovers here in No Man's Land. I think we coined that term last year didn't we? No Man's Land® A chilly Sat on tap in the 40s with clouds to start which will clear out late in the day. Sunday is cool in the 20s again to start but a delightful afternoon in the 50s upcoming so a 50 / 50 weekend of sorts.

A nice soaker Mon night and esp on Tues. GFS is 1 to 1.5" and the Euro is more on the order of 0.80" I'd take either one and be thrilled about it.

In addition to the non phased system today.... we also have a lot of dry air to overcome too. Dews are in the low to mid teens across the area so we'll need to saturate the lower levels too. I like the light rainfall amounts call better and better for this afternoon and tonight.

Per the Aussies, we are in Phase 7 of the MJO which is cooler then avg for this time of year. Phase 8 is next per the modeling which is warm then Phase 1 which is cold again before going into the neutral circle. If correct, we should see a continuation of the current pattern into early April. I still think we see true spring locking in but that maybe delayed now until after the first week of April. We shall see as usual but for now, I don't see any sustained warmth thru at least 4/7 at this time.

Good Morning and another day where temps are going to have a hard time in reaching potential. Like Les mentioned no phasing so rainfall amounts will be light. Still ahead of the game in terms of rainfall this year but getting into spring is when we need to get at least average amount of rainfall each month before summer sets in. Temp wise we are about 4.5 degrees above normal for the year and by the end of March probably will be about 4 degrees above normal though it seems milder than the stats show. Parts of Minnesota late this weekend will be getting in on some decent snows and more important help with the short term droughts somewhat. Northeast Minnesota has a forecast of 10-25 inches of snow so the next system is a rather strong one with direct flow from the GOM and hopefully this helps us as well with a decent rain later Monday and Tuesday.