Absolute Vorticity

Currently 7 degrees here in G'ville and progged for 4 on Tues morning.

Currently 0 in Des Moines e.g. for the Caucus and progged for -11 on Tues morning.

Closer look at EU op qpf distribution. A little less than its Oz run and especially for the I70 crew

Seems like our chances of a couple to a few inches are much better for this time around compared to the the swing and the miss we just had.

Good Afternoon and had a little time this afternoon to look at the extended. So far this season we have not been able to get the cold and precip to combine to give us a decent snow. Well in about 8-10 days we get the January Thaw. January Thaws are good because we need to have the cold build up once again in the northern latitudes. If this did not happen we would then remain rather mild for much of the winter. Biggest thing I have noticed this winter is how the STJ has been even further south than many placements during an El NIno Event. Not so much in the southeast USA but how the jet has mainly been coming up through Mexico and then heading towards the gulf states and up the east coast. We need that STJ to head into the southwest USA starting later next week and then hopefully by the time we get to early February cold will once again head this way. So no I am not giving up on winter but we need certain things to happen over the next few weeks that set us up for a nice February. Will be busy the next few days but hopefully will be back on by Wednesday or Thursday.

The system is just coming into view on 84 of the 18z NAM. The NAM is showing the low tracking through middle TN. That’s further North than both the GFS and Euro, which have it in Northern AL.

That's a nice area of snow in Western Kentucky. Not sure the models really picked up on that.

fyrfyter wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 4:09 pm The system is just coming into view on 84 of the 18z NAM. The NAM is showing the low tracking through middle TN. That’s further North than both the GFS and Euro, which have it in Northern AL.

IMG_0792.jpeg

18Z RGEM is similar to the strength of the low that the 18Z NAM showed, but the low tracks thru Central AL and Central GA.

dce wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 4:15 pm That's a nice area of snow in Western Kentucky. Not sure the models really picked up on that.

That is the second round that will also miss us to the south unfortunately.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 4:42 pm

dce wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 4:15 pm That's a nice area of snow in Western Kentucky. Not sure the models really picked up on that.

That is the second round that will also miss us to the south unfortunately.

It will indeed. Models have underestimated this storm all along the way though Areas farther to the north keep getting more snow than expected and forecast totals keep going up. But yes, no show for us this go around. We look onto Thursday night and Friday with anticipation.

dce wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 4:46 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 4:42 pm

dce wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 4:15 pm That's a nice area of snow in Western Kentucky. Not sure the models really picked up on that.

That is the second round that will also miss us to the south unfortunately.

It will indeed. Models have underestimated this storm all along the way though Areas farther to the north keep getting more snow than expected and forecast totals keep going up. But yes, no show for us this go around. We look onto Thursday night and Friday with anticipation.

Yes Sir... that's where I'm at. Someone on the N side of Nashville will end up getting a foot out of the current system from the reports I've been seeing.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 4:49 pm

dce wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 4:46 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 4:42 pm

dce wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 4:15 pm That's a nice area of snow in Western Kentucky. Not sure the models really picked up on that.

That is the second round that will also miss us to the south unfortunately.

It will indeed. Models have underestimated this storm all along the way though Areas farther to the north keep getting more snow than expected and forecast totals keep going up. But yes, no show for us this go around. We look onto Thursday night and Friday with anticipation.

Yes Sir... that's where I'm at. Someone on the N side of Nashville will end up getting a foot out of the current system from the reports I've been seeing.

Not surprising. The heaviest bands have formed there all day long. Wouldn't be surprised to see double digits in Kentucky when all is said and done. The Euro did horrible with this storm. I would have to say the NAM was the most consistent. Although, not perfect either.

dce wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 4:54 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 4:49 pm

dce wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 4:46 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 4:42 pm

dce wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 4:15 pm That's a nice area of snow in Western Kentucky. Not sure the models really picked up on that.

That is the second round that will also miss us to the south unfortunately.

It will indeed. Models have underestimated this storm all along the way though Areas farther to the north keep getting more snow than expected and forecast totals keep going up. But yes, no show for us this go around. We look onto Thursday night and Friday with anticipation.

Yes Sir... that's where I'm at. Someone on the N side of Nashville will end up getting a foot out of the current system from the reports I've been seeing.

Not surprising. The heaviest bands have formed there all day long. Wouldn't be surprised to see double digits in Kentucky when all is said and done. The Euro did horrible with this storm. I would have to say the NAM was the most consistent. Although, not perfect either.

I agree Doug. The NAM did better with the QPF for sure. Euro did the poorest for that area. The Euro did better for us locally though as it had the snow to our south almost the entire time. Just depends on where you live with regards to model performance sometimes.

12Z GFS had 0.22" of QPF for CVG and the new 18Z run has 0.20" so basically about the same. For the I-70 Crew... I checked DAY and the 12Z run had 0.27" and 18Z has 0.23" so a touch drier but not by a ton or anything. Timing using the GFS looks to be Thurs afternoon into Thurs evening for Round 1 then Thurs night into Friday morning for round 2. This does look to be another 2 part system. My confidence in timing and the 2 part system is high. The QPF is what is low confidence this far away.

Latest thinking from the boys:


As cloud cover increases Wednesday night in advance of the next
system temperatures will not drop overly much with lows around 20
degrees. Snow will start to move into far northern portions of the
region Wednesday night and then overspread the rest of the area on
Thursday. While there are differences in the details, models
continue to be in agreement on bringing accumulating snow to the
area on Thursday. An additional disturbance will keep snow across
the region through Friday as well and bring the potential for
additional accumulating snow as well.

Friday night into Saturday the snow will be more in the form of snow
showers with favorable wind direction bringing some lake enhanced
snow showers to the area. Cannot rule out some additional snow
accumulations from this as well.

Winter Weather Advisory for Adams county. I wonder if Matt is seeing some accumulation with that band of snow?

15 for the high at CVG today. I had 16. Single digits again tonight. Another cold day tomorrow in the teens and single digits again Tues night. Wed looks like a sunny day and in the mid to upper 20s across the area as we begin to moderate some ahead of our Thurs / Fri system. 30ish on Thurs, Low 20s on Fri then in the teens to low 20s for Sat. If we can get some snow on the ground, we could get as low as zero if not below for Sat morning. We moderate on Sunday with some sunshine and we are finally above freezing by Monday of next week, January 22nd! All eyes for the time being though will be on the Thurs / Fri of this week's system.

18Z GEFS is painting 0.30" of QPF for the region. The 12Z EPS has 0.20" of QPF so still holding on to that amount. So far a 1-3" prelim call for this system is looking good.

Viirga alert. lol

Guidance today was in pretty good agreement on placement with some smaller differences in amounts. Unless we see some model shenanigans on 00z, I’ll have my first call map out tomorrow morning.

We got NAM’d by the Canadian

GFS is similar, though lighter on totals. NAM only goes out to Friday morning but does look like it would be a similar run to the GFS.

Snow thread

viewtopic.php?p=40120#p40120

9 degrees this morning here and at CVG. I see some snow on radar but it is virga still? Nothing IMBY.

8 degrees now at CVG. It was flurrying when I left home and by the time I got to Mason, it was a steadier light snow and roads were beginning to get a dusting on them.

Special Weather Statement for all posters from the boys:


...LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING...

A fast moving system will result in light snow for a few hours
early this morning. Snow accumulations are expected to be less
than an inch.

Motorists should be prepared for slick conditions on roadways
this morning and allow extra time to reach your intended
destination.

Looks like a couple of systems through next Monday and the send off to a milder period is a frz/rain event. Then we get mild and rather wet for about 10-14 days as the pattern lets up here and the next area of colder air is developing. The good thing is the cold though retreating from much of the USA is not heading back to the other side of the world. This tells me another blast of winter is on its way and we just need to figure out what part of the country will get hit the hardest. This past cold spell was further west than I thought so hopefully its centered further east. Will need to put up on my weather station on Wednesday and will be ready for some fun an games