Absolute Vorticity

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sat Mar 04, 2023 8:30 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Mar 04, 2023 8:29 am Good Morning and of course plenty of sticks to pick up. Main item was the wind ripped some of the siding off on one side of the house along with ripping the downspout off and with a 2 story house that is a pain. Damaged to get fixed but of course not enough to get the insurance company involved. Glad we have several dry days but the problem will be finding a good roofing company that is not so busy after yesterday and that could be the problem. That side of the house is like a wind tunnel and I knew with the winds yesterday there was going to be a problem.

Hi Tim,

So sorry to hear about your house damage, bro. Prayerfully can get it fixed without too much waiting time.

Ray St. Clair Roofing also does siding jobs e.g. and is a sponsor of the Reds.

I hope you and your family are doing well. My folks and I are hanging in there.

Hey Eric, good to hear from you. Glad you and your family are doing well. Looking forward to baseball season as always

Good Morning and I saw there were 3 tornado's confirmed just east of Cincinnati on Friday. Has been a very busy severe season and we are only in early March. Does this mean the remainder of the season will be busy and not sure at this point.

Today and Monday are wonderful with mild to warm temps. Cold front comes through but just knocks us back to normal. So is the pattern change going to happen later this week and the answer is yes but to what extent and how long will it last.

We know the trend this season is to have cold shots come in but head out of town quickly. No blocking that keeps the cold in place for any amount of time and though the snow cover to the north has been nice without the blocking we just warm up quickly.

Even when we break down the southeast ridge like we should later this week the ridge pops up over Mexico and it becomes a south central ridge and this keeps the cold from digging to far south in the central states. This is bad for Texas and Oklahoma as they need the rain this time of year and again if this pattern repeats over the next few weeks the heat will make an early start to the season.

My guess models are trying to figure out how much blocking is going on and you see different placement of lows every run. Sad when a pattern change only brings us back to normal and that is possible especially if the ridge to the southwest of here builds and keeps enough mild air in here to the point where snow is really hard to come by. Still believe the northeast USA will do much better and still a question mark for us locally.

Little too much blue for my liking showing up on the model precip type maps

Good morning all! It looks like the end of next week system is going to be mainly a rain maker but that system is the one that brings about the pattern change to below avg temps for the following week. That is when we'll have some snow chances. Until then, you already know the forecast for this upcoming week. Nice weather thru Monday then a cool front bringing in a small rain chance Mon night. We drop towards normal then get wet Fri and Sat.

What a beautiful day outside! Almost 60 degrees with very little wind. Just got done picking up bucket full after bucket full of limbs, pine cones, etc. after the last few wind storms. Going to take a break, then start on doing some lawn tractor maintenance. Got to put in a new battery, give it a bath, grease it, change the oil, etc.

Good morning folks! Today is the last comfortable day to get something down outside before we drop back to seasonal temps and then get wet Thurs night thru Sat. It won't rain all the time but do expect periods of showers during this time. Then do we get a second system late Sunday into next Monday that brings rain or snow to the area as a colder pattern (although just slightly below normal) takes shape. I really thought we'd see some late season cold air getting involved but that SE ridge is still there. That +PNA may not develop despite the favorable MJO phase. Still could be a La Nina hangover in place.

Good Morning Les. Very nice post and one thing you mentioned was the La Nina hangover. What happens is the western USA and southern Alaska got tons of snow this season. When the ridging pushes north in that area then we usually see the pna go positive or at least neutral. The problem is with that ridging and milder air much of that goes into snow melt and mother nature sort of puts the brakes on that warming as she slowly melts the snow it just takes a longer to get the pattern change. Of course the later we get in March the harder it is to get a true snow storm in our area. Sure we can get the rain to snow outcome which yields very little in most cases or we get lucky and a system come through here at night.

Last week the models were warming Alaska up very nicely but that has back off quite a bit and even Fairbanks which has been rather mild this winter had some of their coldest temps this winter during the past few days. Have another system coming into western Alaska and hopefully this helps in bringing in some milder air later this week but before hand getting snow near Nome and surrounding areas and once again that adds later winter snows to that area.

Yes colder air is coming but how cold and how long is the question and the trend this season has been cold comes in for 3-4 days and we warm back up very quickly.

Thanks Tim! Models are still going below avg which is 40s for highs and 20s for lows. Days ago, it was highs in the 30s so models have warmed up a bit. Still can get snow but will need a well timed shortwave with less ridging out ahead of it. Troughs are already going negative tilt in the Plains. We need it to do so as it crosses the MS river not before.

I see a bit of a backing off on ensembles also with the depth of cold mid month,.maybe 4-8 degrees below normal for a period instead of the 5-10 they showed earlier. Possibly because the upcoming MJO induced jet extension into California , which for them could result in more AR events similar to January, bit for us means Pac air could tone down the coldest of air from Canada

there is no cold being shown in my 7 day just average temps. maybe after this weekend we get colder who knows at this point. The way this winter has been my expectations are very low for any cold and snow

71 now at CVG. 74 is the record. It's going to be close!

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 06, 2023 12:31 pm there is no cold being shown in my 7 day just average temps. maybe after this weekend we get colder who knows at this point. The way this winter has been my expectations are very low for any cold and snow

Same. I'll be pleasantly surprised if something does show up under the 3 or 4 day mark. Until then, it is all up for speculation.

The first of two systems this week arrives Thurs night into Fri and I still think it's all rain. The Sun into Mon of next week has a snow chance if we were to see proper phasing of the two short waves. You'd think with a building -NAO you'd get that but the pattern still looks to be moving so it's going to be tough to thread that needle. Still a small signal for something around or after the 20th too with the last cold shot before real spring probably comes not long thereafter. At least climowise it drops off after about 2 weeks from now.

For the Sun into next Mon system, the 12Z Euro is digging the energy more which is good. Need it to slow down so the northern stream can catch up and phase in.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 06, 2023 1:18 pm 71 now at CVG. 74 is the record. It's going to be close!

73 now as of the 2pm reading.

75 at the Carroll and Campbell Co Mesonet sites in NKY. Boone's is at 72. 73 maybe 74 in my hood today. Still see CVG holding at 73. 79 at Ft Campbell and at the LOU UHI of SDF also at 79. Same with BWG - Bowling Green.

EDIT: Dry air and a well mixed boundary layer allowing wind gusts in excess of 30 mph.

Quick trip to Cincy and back today. I was way over dressed for the weather. Helped my brother get rid of a fence that blew over last week. Now for the fun park of replacing it soon. Nice weather to drive down and back with the windows open both ways.

I'm going to bathe the lawn mower and lawn tractor after work today before it turns cooler again.

These winds are a pita, I can get more done on a calm 35 degree day than the windy days like we’ve been having(today)

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Mar 06, 2023 4:21 pm These winds are a pita, I can get more done on a calm 35 degree day than the windy days like we’ve been having(today)

I just got done picking up the yard with the kids yesterday lol It's never ending.

I maxed out at 75 today. Noticing the brush greening up now. Wild onions coming up too. Morel season is upon us once we get rid of the cooler overnight lows. CVG tied the record of 74 from 1910 and 1973. Conversely, a record low of zero occurred today in that fabulous Feb / March of 2015!

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 06, 2023 4:24 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Mar 06, 2023 4:21 pm These winds are a pita, I can get more done on a calm 35 degree day than the windy days like we’ve been having(today)

I just got done picking up the yard with the kids yesterday lol It's never ending.

A real pain in the pita bread chips!

CVG 74, DAY 73 and CMH 72 from today.

got 1" of snow overnight from the clipper it was from 12-3 am. maybe more this weekend.