Absolute Vorticity

Very eerie look to the lightning and rather rare conditions for some that have dense fog and numerous lightning strikes, and it's mid January to boot

Good morning! Thankfully, the severe storms weakened as they moved into our CWA. No warnings to be knowledge have been issued for us. It's noisy though for sure with intense lightning and very heavy rainfall. I'm up to 0.20" here. Be careful going to work and school this morning. We'll see a break later on, then one more round, esp Eastern CWA with the cold front this afternoon. Then we drop and see snow showers tonight and tomorrow ending late Fri night or early Sat morning.

Good Morning Les and I believe there was a watch for Switzerland county earlier but like you mentioned the storms did weaken as they went across the local area though I had a brief period of hail.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jan 12, 2023 7:38 am Good Morning Les and I believe there was a watch for Switzerland county earlier but like you mentioned the storms did weaken as they went across the local area though I had a brief period of hail.

Thanks Tim for that correction and good morning Just one more question. Is this April?

A quick post on the extended range and the last few runs of the OP GFS shows a gradient pattern potentially developing as we get towards the last week of the month. This can be good and bad depending on what side of the boundary you're on. The 0Z run shows you the bad side of the boundary meaning more wet weather. The 6Z run shows us on the good side of the boundary with a fantasy snow range storm. GEFS / EPS guidance still looks wonderful! A gorgeous +PNA / -EPO ridge all the way up into the Arctic. Some ridging across the top for the -AO. Not quite as nice over Greenland like back in December but some weak ridging is there so I'd go with more of a neutral NAO. If this look continues to hold, I still believe some good times are ahead for us. We'll just have to wait and see.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 12, 2023 7:44 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jan 12, 2023 7:38 am Good Morning Les and I believe there was a watch for Switzerland county earlier but like you mentioned the storms did weaken as they went across the local area though I had a brief period of hail.

Thanks Tim for that correction and good morning Just one more question. Is this April?

Hey Les I believe it is April and probably on April 12th we will have one of those wet snows that accumulate in the morning and melt by noon

If the radar is correct, we’re going to see 4 different lines of storms. That doesn’t happen here in summer.

Kinda crazy considering it’s January.

Where is winter? LOL Although I will take thunder in January any day!

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jan 12, 2023 7:52 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 12, 2023 7:44 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jan 12, 2023 7:38 am Good Morning Les and I believe there was a watch for Switzerland county earlier but like you mentioned the storms did weaken as they went across the local area though I had a brief period of hail.

Thanks Tim for that correction and good morning Just one more question. Is this April?

Hey Les I believe it is April and probably on April 12th we will have one of those wet snows that accumulate in the morning and melt by noon

LOL! No doubt about it. Hopefully some better times down the road.

Mike / Aaron... It's kind of ironic isn't it? We get more thunder in winter then in summer!

As of 8am, CVG checking in with 0.25" Boone Co mesonet 0.20"

My hood checks in with 0.28" thus far as of 830.

Wow! Intense lightning and booming thunder here! The last lightning flash I just saw was bright and close! Almost blinded me.

Last batch of heavy rain / t-storms are moving thru my hood before we get the break.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 12, 2023 7:49 am A quick post on the extended range and the last few runs of the OP GFS shows a gradient pattern potentially developing as we get towards the last week of the month. This can be good and bad depending on what side of the boundary you're on. The 0Z run shows you the bad side of the boundary meaning more wet weather. The 6Z run shows us on the good side of the boundary with a fantasy snow range storm. GEFS / EPS guidance still looks wonderful! A gorgeous +PNA / -EPO ridge all the way up into the Arctic. Some ridging across the top for the -AO. Not quite as nice over Greenland like back in December but some weak ridging is there so I'd go with more of a neutral NAO. If this look continues to hold, I still believe some good times are ahead for us. We'll just have to wait and see.

Hey Les, the 6Z GFS is my friend in the extended, but I'm sure that friend will stab me in the back!

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Thu Jan 12, 2023 9:05 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 12, 2023 7:49 am A quick post on the extended range and the last few runs of the OP GFS shows a gradient pattern potentially developing as we get towards the last week of the month. This can be good and bad depending on what side of the boundary you're on. The 0Z run shows you the bad side of the boundary meaning more wet weather. The 6Z run shows us on the good side of the boundary with a fantasy snow range storm. GEFS / EPS guidance still looks wonderful! A gorgeous +PNA / -EPO ridge all the way up into the Arctic. Some ridging across the top for the -AO. Not quite as nice over Greenland like back in December but some weak ridging is there so I'd go with more of a neutral NAO. If this look continues to hold, I still believe some good times are ahead for us. We'll just have to wait and see.

Hey Les, the 6Z GFS is my friend in the extended, but I'm sure that friend will stab me in the back!

Hey Joe! It's a good screen saver, for your PC or cell phone.

Heard some really loud thunder a few hours ago and some small hail hitting my bedroom window. It's thundering again but now as loud. What left over salt/dirt on the roads should be gone with this heavy rain. Looking at next week and there may be some concerns for some flooding.

Hey Bgoney... if you're still around this morning, did you see the new SOI reading? It finally came in negative at -0.80! This is the first time since back in November that we've seen a negative reading. The trend so far on this is great and hope to see the drop or at least more lower numbers continue. Hoping this is a sign here that the Nina truly is weakening. If correct, this could bode well for February IMO.

0.71" from the 1st round IMBY. The break has pushed in here with brightening skies.1004 MB low near LOU pushing NE right up the river and eventually just a hair SE of the I-71 corridor. A few folks down this way could get a peak or two of sun but it'll be brief if you see any at all. Radar to the West shows the next round of mod to hvy rainfall approaching IND. It extends all the way back towards St. Louis. Even a touch of snow on the NW side of the upper low over South Central to SW Missouri which modeling did show correctly.

EDIT to update rain totals:

Me - 0.71"
Boone Co mesonet - 0.64"
CVG - 0.60"

I'd like to wish Dave - HouseofCards - a very Happy Birthday today! Hope you have enjoyed the fireworks from Mother Nature this morning!

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 12, 2023 9:10 am Hey Bgoney... if you're still around this morning, did you see the new SOI reading? It finally came in negative at -0.80! This is the first time since back in November that we've seen a negative reading. The trend so far on this is great and hope to see the drop or at least more lower numbers continue. Hoping this is a sign here that the Nina truly is weakening. If correct, this could bode well for February IMO.

Hadn't looked yet. I think we had mentioned that we expected it to drop . It is a great sign. Negative numbers even for a short period mean (usually) that another active phase of MJO is imminent and we've all talked about it re-emerging in the Indian ocean. A lot of modeling now to back that up.

HAPPY 54TH DAVE AND ENJOY YOUR SPECIAL DAY, WXBUDDY!!

Had some thunder around 8 o'clock and will check the rain gauge sometime this evening before the changeover.

Currently 43 and light rain here in G'ville.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jan 12, 2023 10:18 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 12, 2023 9:10 am Hey Bgoney... if you're still around this morning, did you see the new SOI reading? It finally came in negative at -0.80! This is the first time since back in November that we've seen a negative reading. The trend so far on this is great and hope to see the drop or at least more lower numbers continue. Hoping this is a sign here that the Nina truly is weakening. If correct, this could bode well for February IMO.

Hadn't looked yet. I think we had mentioned that we expected it to drop . It is a great sign. Negative numbers even for a short period mean (usually) that another active phase of MJO is imminent and we've all talked about it re-emerging in the Indian ocean. A lot of modeling now to back that up.

Lots of MJO modeling now showing the IO re-emerge in Phase 2 then 3. Many then take it back into the neutral circle which I like. We don't want it to keep moving into the warm phases or our pattern change won't be around for long. I think this impacts more of Feb vs end of Jan of course but for now... the last week or so of Jan onwards holds potential. Even seeing the NAO trying to dip weakly negative as well but I'd still call it neutral. Beats it being very positive like it is now.

Where my cousin lives. He's in charge of the road department. He had to send some trucks out to clear some roads. Said they got 3 inches. This is around Columbia Mo. Said it was 60 degrees yesterday. We shall see if this sticks together and hits anyone in Ohio.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service St Louis MO
653 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

MOZ041-042-047>051-059-060-062-072-073-121600-
/O.NEW.KLSX.WW.Y.0001.230112T1253Z-230112T1600Z/
Boone MO-Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-
Montgomery MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Franklin MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-
Including the cities of Mexico, Union, Washington, Fulton,
Sullivan, Columbia, and Jefferson City
653 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Wet snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of central and east central Missouri.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM CST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the Thursday morning commute.