Absolute Vorticity

Just looked at the models this morning and they are slowing this system down. One reason could be the system is sort of away from any major steering currents or the dry air is too strong and eroding the moisture as it moves northeast. Staying with my forecast and will watch the trends over the next several hours. Beautiful day here in Greenville,SC and raked leaves yesterday and time to mow the grass. I know we saw that drought map the other day and had this area 9-12 inches below normal or something strange and its really just the opposite as vegetation is wonderful down here and no signs of any stress on the plants. I have no ideal where they get the info from is my concern and they may be correct on 90 p/c of the map but when you have something so far from the truth that is when I have to many question. If they would have said 1-3 inches below normal I still believe its incorrect but more believable but this is so out there it makes me ask tons of questions.

Can we bottle up yesterday and save it for a rainy day when we don't need rain? A great fire pit night to boot..

Tim , I am definitely rooting for your higher amounts for AV Country, but your concerns have always been why I went with lower amounts and have to stay with them at this point. 20"-50" for AVland with best chance of the half inch amounts in counties along river. Low dewpoints, east winds as you get into Ohio could eat up some of the modeled qpf. The moisture transport looks good into southern KY but drops off further north, I suppose due to the weakening low and further movement away from the GOM.

Late week Native American summer returns and some question on how long it lasts

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Oct 30, 2022 8:15 am Can we bottle up yesterday and save it for a rainy day when we don't need rain? A great fire pit night to boot..

Tim , I am definitely rooting for your higher amounts for AV Country, but your concerns have always been why I went with lower amounts and have to stay with them at this point. 20"-50" for AVland with best chance of the half inch amounts in counties along river. Low dewpoints, east winds as you get into Ohio could eat up some of the modeled qpf. The moisture transport looks good into southern KY but drops off further north, I suppose due to the weakening low and further movement away from the GOM.

Late week Native American summer returns and some question on how long it lasts

Good Morning Bgoney. Great Post and no doubt I have concerns about the higher totals. Very similar to last week when I mentioned to Les that when the forecasts we throw out are somewhat different it seems the middle of the road is the way to go. The only reason I went with the .5-.75 is the slower movement of the system and the added showers on Monday. Concerning long term and like you mentioned warm weather is on the way but how long does it last will have a lot to do with tropical activity. That activity is slowing the pattern down but in about 10-14 days we see a shift and systems from the west can make more inroads.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Oct 30, 2022 8:37 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Oct 30, 2022 8:15 am Can we bottle up yesterday and save it for a rainy day when we don't need rain? A great fire pit night to boot..

Tim , I am definitely rooting for your higher amounts for AV Country, but your concerns have always been why I went with lower amounts and have to stay with them at this point. 20"-50" for AVland with best chance of the half inch amounts in counties along river. Low dewpoints, east winds as you get into Ohio could eat up some of the modeled qpf. The moisture transport looks good into southern KY but drops off further north, I suppose due to the weakening low and further movement away from the GOM.

Late week Native American summer returns and some question on how long it lasts

Good Morning Bgoney. Great Post and no doubt I have concerns about the higher totals. Very similar to last week when I mentioned to Les that when the forecasts we throw out are somewhat different it seems the middle of the road is the way to go. The only reason I went with the .5-.75 is the slower movement of the system and the added showers on Monday. Concerning long term and like you mentioned warm weather is on the way but how long does it last will have a lot to do with tropical activity. That activity is slowing the pattern down but in about 10-14 days we see a shift and systems from the west can make more inroads.

Hi Tim, speaking of tropical activity ...

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

Had some sprinkles around here so far. How is everyone else doing? Cincy looks like it is getting some decent rain at the moment.

Honey, I'm Home!!! Hit steady rain about at Piqua and it got heavier the further south I went. 59 degrees here with 0.24" so far in the books. CVG checking in with 0.21".

No surprises so far , .25" here. Lunken .25". Dayton .04". Cbus trace. Showers struggling holding together north of river counties.

Good Evening and I agree with Bgoney and no surprises at all with the system. One more round to come in the next few hours and then we will have scattered showers over the next 24 hours. Raining down here this evening and more expected on Monday. Since we have been down here in June of 2019 rainfall has been way above every year except this year has been slightly above normal.

Moderate to heavy drizzle here, about .10 so far.

----

59 / 57 here... I'm up to 0.31" now.

to all of you!!!


And for all snow weenies on our forum, myself included....

Glad to have you back Les. Where will the final total be on Monday and would not surprise me we are near the .50 which would be the exact middle of the road with the forecast we threw out. Good to have these bouts of rain and again no drought buster but this time of year getting near a 1/2 inch comes in handy. Hope to have my winter forecast out later this week before I head to Hilton Head next Sunday.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Oct 30, 2022 8:24 pm Glad to have you back Les. Where will the final total be on Monday and would not surprise me we are near the .50 which would be the exact middle of the road with the forecast we threw out. Good to have these bouts of rain and again no drought buster but this time of year getting near a 1/2 inch comes in handy. Hope to have my winter forecast out later this week before I head to Hilton Head next Sunday.

Thank you Tim! Time to finish up the leaves in the next few weeks on this end, and start my Christmas Shopping too! That time of year. After we eat candy (and pass it out to kids too lol) tomorrow, then it's on to Thanksgiving and I hope some snow talk of our own by then! Hope you have a good golf game on your trip too! Might smoke a brisket next weekend esp if the GFS solution is correct. Have to take advantage of the nice weather. I hope we pay for it in December with snow instead of the usual toaster bath we've been seeing. November 70s are good. December 60s and 70s are bad.

Have gotten some light rain/drizzle the past couple of hours. Will check the rain gauge in the morning. Even under the trees are wet. Oops that's because most of the leaves are not there.

0.41" for the current event total at CVG. 0.46" here imby. 0.39" Boone Co mesonet site.

BOO. Kind of creepy outside. 60 degrees this morning imby, some 20 degrees above paranormal. Pesky drizzle will haunt us off and on today so if you see the sun , it is an apparition. But don't be scared the orb in the sky will return with a vengeance later this week

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Oct 31, 2022 7:48 am BOO. Kind of creepy outside. 60 degrees this morning imby, some 20 degrees above paranormal. Pesky drizzle will haunt us off and on today so if you see the sun , it is an apparition. But don't be scared the orb in the sky will return with a vengeance later this week

Awesome post!!!

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Oct 31, 2022 7:48 am BOO. Kind of creepy outside. 60 degrees this morning imby, some 20 degrees above paranormal. Pesky drizzle will haunt us off and on today so if you see the sun , it is an apparition. But don't be scared the orb in the sky will return with a vengeance later this week

Bgoney,in the words of the great Ronnie James Dio all we need to do is turn the sun around and we are good.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 31, 2022 7:31 am 0.41" for the current event total at CVG. 0.46" here imby. 0.39" Boone Co mesonet site.

Les it look like I will miss out on that .5 inches at the airport. I was watching the second round move through last night and the airport was just a tad to far north and west to get in on the heaviest band. Seems my house in Edgewood got in on some of that heavier rain but not sure exactly how much fell there. Always fun with these predictions and again Bgoney,you and myself had the correct forecast overall on the past two systems and hopefully this continues this winter.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Oct 31, 2022 8:25 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 31, 2022 7:31 am 0.41" for the current event total at CVG. 0.46" here imby. 0.39" Boone Co mesonet site.

Les it look like I will miss out on that .5 inches at the airport. I was watching the second round move through last night and the airport was just a tad to far north and west to get in on the heaviest band. Seems my house in Edgewood got in on some of that heavier rain but not sure exactly how much fell there. Always fun with these predictions and again Bgoney,you and myself had the correct forecast overall on the past two systems and hopefully this continues this winter.

Good morning Tim! I think we're doing just fine with the forums forecasting both individual systems and the longer term. So far, the go mild call is working and we know why. The Nina is doing its thing as we fully expected on this forum as well as the MJO stalling in Phase 6 / 7. It's a typical Nina atmospheric response. We shall see how long this lasts. At least we've got a system or two to track now instead of 100% boredom. With this next surge of warmth... can we get a little strong to severe action going with a properly timed cold front? That maybe on the table going forward.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 31, 2022 8:28 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Oct 31, 2022 8:25 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 31, 2022 7:31 am 0.41" for the current event total at CVG. 0.46" here imby. 0.39" Boone Co mesonet site.

Les it look like I will miss out on that .5 inches at the airport. I was watching the second round move through last night and the airport was just a tad to far north and west to get in on the heaviest band. Seems my house in Edgewood got in on some of that heavier rain but not sure exactly how much fell there. Always fun with these predictions and again Bgoney,you and myself had the correct forecast overall on the past two systems and hopefully this continues this winter.

Good morning Tim! I think we're doing just fine with the forums forecasting both individual systems and the longer term. So far, the go mild call is working and we know why. The Nina is doing its thing as we fully expected on this forum as well as the MJO stalling in Phase 6 / 7. It's a typical Nina atmospheric response. We shall see how long this lasts. At least we've got a system or two to track now instead of 100% boredom. With this next surge of warmth... can we get a little strong to severe action going with a properly timed cold front? That maybe on the table going forward.

Les I agree and we are in that second severe season as well and with the kind of warmth coming this way and a decent cold front to the northwest I would expect sooner or later those two play and we get a nice severe outbreak. Don't no when or where at this point but chances are a little higher than normal imo.

Tim... I'm talking easily 7-10 days away before we have anything serious to track in regards to severe wx but it is possible with the clashing of the airmasses either here or just to our West.

About a three tenths of an inch here. Still got some drizzle ongoing.

Got a quick glimpse of that orb.