Absolute Vorticity

59 here

Mid morning update from the boys:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Current surface analysis indicates that high pressure has
drifted off to the east, and very light southerly to
southeasterly surface flow has begun to pick up over the area.
This will be the start of a theta-e advection trend over the
next couple days. Based on the high temps yesterday and model
indications today, max temps for today have been increased by
about a degree from the previous forecast.

Still seeing decent model agreement on some isolated showers
developing in the northwestern ILN CWA this afternoon. Forcing
is weak, but there may be some subtle low-level convergence
(with a SE to S wind shift) and perhaps a very weak trough at
700mb.

12Z Euro looking good for the call of chance POPS Sat, likely Sunday and a leftover shower on Monday.

Les, is Sunday a washout?

Sargent51 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 19, 2022 3:10 pm Les, is Sunday a washout?

No I don't think it'll be wash out. We've got a shot of storms coming in Sat night or Sun morning. Depending on how that shakes out, will dictate how much heating we get for additional storm development Sun afternoon.

Good Saturday morning all! We look to remain dry this morning but after 1 or 2pm, we are fair game for t-storm development. Again a strong to isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out. Things will quiet down after we lose the heating of the day. Then for tomorrow, more widespread action with a couple of rounds likely, in the morning then again afternoon and evening. Dry time in between. Isolated severe storm again possible. Highs in the mid 80s today and near 80 tomorrow. Enjoy your weekend folks!

Scattered storms are developing over IN just to our West moving NE. A few other isolated cells also exist. Some decent cells N of Dayton too.

Hey Les, the storms or isolated and slow moving but can get a nice dose in a short amount of time. These will continue to pop until the sun sets then we wait on the overnight llj to see where the next area of rain develops and this should closer to Sunday morning. Sunday looks mostly cloudy with a few periods of showers and thundershowers

Just had a big storm here with heavy rain, big lightning and thunder and winds to 30 mph. Had a high of 86 at 2pm. Storm rolled in around 3 and I dropped to 69 degrees and picked up 0.43". Loved it!

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 20, 2022 3:37 pm Just had a big storm here with heavy rain, big lightning and thunder and winds to 30 mph. Had a high of 86 at 2pm. Storm rolled in around 3 and I dropped to 69 degrees and picked up 0.43". Loved it!

Once again Les is stealing my rain lol. Few rumbles of thunders and probably 2 minutes of light rain which is barely enough to get the ground wet.

Starting raining again and lets see how much I can get this time around.

It just stopped pouring. Checked rain guage, 0.8 inches in about 25 minutes. Wind and thunder as well. Won't have to water tonight.

Yes same here lol. It was perfect! Tim you should have received a nice drink too per radar?

Round 2 now with more big thunder and lightning. 0.57" currently for the day and 71 degrees,

...FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.

* WHERE...Portions of Southeast Indiana and Northern Kentucky,
including the following counties, in Southeast Indiana,
Switzerland. In Northern Kentucky, Boone, Carroll and Gallatin.

* WHEN...Until 800 PM EDT.

* IMPACTS...Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas.
Water over roadways.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 553 PM EDT, radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 1.5 inches of
rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 1.5
inches are possible.
- Some locations that may experience flooding include...
Florence, Carrollton, Walton, Burlington, Oakbrook, Union,
Crittenden, Vevay, Warsaw, Kentucky Speedway, Patriot,
Glencoe, Ghent, Sanders, Sparta, Worthville, Prestonville and
Ethridge.

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northwestern Pike County in southwestern Ohio...
Southeastern Highland County in southwestern Ohio...
Southwestern Ross County in southwestern Ohio...

* Until 630 PM EDT.

* At 557 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Marshall,
moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is possible. Expect wind
damage to trees and power lines.

* Locations impacted include...
Marshall, Bainbridge, Belfast, Rocky Fork Point, Cynthiana,
Highland Holiday, Rocky Fork Lake, Rainsboro, Berrysville and Paint
Creek State Park.

Some years you can't get a drop of rain and some years it seems like every storm hits you.

Big red blob heading straight for us here in the Oakbrook / Burlington area.

0.00”. Yup! Lol. Fortunately I drove outside the dome today and witnessed some nice storm action in the beavercreek and Xenia area.

markalot wrote: ↑Sat Aug 20, 2022 6:35 pm Some years you can't get a drop of rain and some years it seems like every storm hits you.

Big red blob heading straight for us here in the Oakbrook / Burlington area.

Yes Sir! Round 3 incoming... Continuous thunder the last hour too. What a day!

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR SWITZERLAND, BOONE, CARROLL AND GALLATIN COUNTIES...

At 656 PM EDT, radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain
across the warned area. Between 2 and 3 inches of rain have fallen.
The expected rainfall rate is 1 to 1.5 inches in 1 hour. Additional
rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible. Flash flooding is
ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
drainage and low-lying areas.

1.08" here and 68 degrees after round 3. CVG gusted to 30 about the same here. Don't know if it'll hold together or not since we've been worked over but a possible round 4 NE of Madison, IN if it can make it in here.

I've picked up over 7" for the month of Aug with 10 days left... Wow! Top 10 Wettest Augusts at CVG:


As of 5pm today, CVG had recorded 6.55" of rain so #5 on the list and rising with more rain expected.

.70" here

So far I've picked up .88" for today.

Currently 70 here in G'ville.