Absolute Vorticity

CF just to the NW of Indy

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 20, 2022 2:59 pm 91 / 80 / 109 now lol Atmosphere def is primed should we get any sort of forcing or lift.

The NWS should have upgraded to an excessive heat warning if you ask me. There are heat indexes above warning criteria all the way down to areas around Louisville. Even Louisville is still under a heat advisory.

dce wrote: ↑Wed Jul 20, 2022 3:39 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 20, 2022 2:59 pm 91 / 80 / 109 now lol Atmosphere def is primed should we get any sort of forcing or lift.

The NWS should have upgraded to an excessive heat warning if you ask me. There are heat indexes above warning criteria all the way down to areas around Louisville. Even Louisville is still under a heat advisory.

Maybe a warning in the urban areas. In open areas, there is a nice breeze today, which helps as Bgoney mentioned.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 20, 2022 3:42 pm

dce wrote: ↑Wed Jul 20, 2022 3:39 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 20, 2022 2:59 pm 91 / 80 / 109 now lol Atmosphere def is primed should we get any sort of forcing or lift.

The NWS should have upgraded to an excessive heat warning if you ask me. There are heat indexes above warning criteria all the way down to areas around Louisville. Even Louisville is still under a heat advisory.

Maybe a warning in the urban areas. In open areas, there is a nice breeze today, which helps as Bgoney mentioned.

Yes, it does help. However, the breeze isn't one of the factors in calculating the heat index.

My current temp is 93 but dew point only 74 which has come down just a hair. So far not much going on with the radar and yes if it fires it will be quick but hope to see something over the next few hours.

SBcape in Southern Indiana 6500

I’m trying not to hold my breath but I sure hopes something pops up soon!!

Cap is being stubborn so far...

20Z NEW sounding from ILN shows a convective temp of 91. We're there! A little too much dry air or cap is the issue of course.

The cap is holding steady and that was the key to the forecast, These heat bubbles even short time can really have some dry air. Even with the monsoon season in the southwest USA many time there is no rain but lightning which causes some of the fires.

Small severe cell popped north of Evansville

It's a start , outflow boundaries from it will spark new development down that way. We need something closer to help our cause

91 for my high today. I'm still holding at 90 with a dew of 77. In terms of the storms and the cap breaking...

Time for us is running out, a couple of hours for something to fill-in and pop otherwise, it'll pop to our SE which is what I think might be going to happen. I want to be wrong here.

Time is running out for our SE Indiana counties and Dayton

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 20, 2022 6:59 pm Time for us is running out, a couple of hours for something to fill-in and pop otherwise, it'll pop to our SE which is what I think might be going to happen. I want to be wrong here.

I agree Les and really after 4pm when I saw even more sunshine than earlier I was worried this could be a non-event for us. Sure we have a few more hours but even if something developed it would probably be on top of us at best and last a short time. Early next week has the best shot of some rain and yes by then we could really use some more rainfall. Again days next week without rain temps should still top 90 and it may be the start of August before we see temps more towards normal.

Good evening Tim... (and everyone lol)... But yeah I agree. Cannot rule out an isolated cell obviously but the cap is winning at the moment. If nothing gets going by 9pm, you can wrap it on this one. Prepare for the heat then enjoy the nice looking pattern we have coming next week for rain and storm lovers.

It’s raining here in Amelia

Some popping




Updated radar

Hearing thunder now. Might get something out of it.

Got to 92 at CVG and DAY and 91 at CMH.

Currently 88 here in G'ville.

Miss to the south. Seeing thunderheads off to my north and NE. Probably see isolated development sout and east of 71 in Ohio

Good morning all! I expect the upper 80s today then the 90s thru the weekend. Do we get any sneaky storm chances before next week? A few models are trying but I'd say chances are low. Like Sat morning a dying complex is trying to enter ands again late Sunday. I'll watch it but I think our greatest chances probably hold off until Sunday night and as we roll into next week.

Speaking of rain chances for next week... I like Monday and Tuesday for likely POPS with a front slowly working thru. It comes back north as a warm front to linger the chances into Wed, Thurs with higher chances again by Friday. Not sure if next weekend is dry or if the front still is in the area. Either way, expect on and off storm chances for a good chunk of next week, esp early on is my latest thinking.

For temps... upper 80s today, 90-92 Fri, low to mid 90s Sat and Sun. Still think 95 is max temp. Then, back into the 80s next week due to clouds and storm chances.

Good Morning Les. I touched 94 briefly yesterday but it seemed the early clouds went away and I had tons of sun and also my dew points never got to the 78-80 that the airport showed and mainly stayed in the 75 or 76 range which is another reason my temp was a few degrees higher.The forecast looks good and lets hope the front stalls nearby for a few days and we can get a few rounds of showers and thundershowers. I agree next week should stay below 90 unless you have a day with no rain and added sun then we could hit 90 or 91.