Absolute Vorticity

ILN going to be launching a special balloon at 18Z

Wearing my glasses outside ... fail. Took 5 minutes to get the steam off.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 1:52 pm ILN going to be launching a special balloon at 18Z

Would that be a hot air balloon.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 1:49 pm

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 1:43 pm Seeing storms pop along the IL/IN border - this is the region to watch for potential MCS development. Parameters here continue to be quite impressive for severe weather. I'm sticking to my guns.

I think the warm front is starting to fire up Mike per radar presentation.

Yeah we are seeing the powder keg start to blow now over in Indiana

It's no.picnic out here but definitely doesn't feel as hot and uncomfortable as a few days we've already had this spring/summer. The lack of sun and a decent breeze from time to time give you a chance to cool down while on a break.

Looks like a watch will be issued for a good chunk of cvgland

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10:00 PM

So, canopy down then?

Lets see which short term model is correct today. Hrrr continues to show very little while the wrf is the one showing a nice line of storms coming through here later today.

90 / 80 here... 87 / 80 as of 2pm at CVG.

Sun is out so that should raise temps but probably knock down the dew points by a degree or two next hour

New ob from CVG! 90/81!!

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 2:40 pm New ob from CVG! 90/81!!

Wow we tied the dew point record

House of Cards wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 2:30 pm So, canopy down then?

You've got a little time still but eventually... yes. I think Mike is right. The beginnings of the MCS that some guidance was showing over IN then moving SE to potentially get us is starting to get is act together. The overnight MCS is a whole other ball game for I-70 Crew on north in my view at the present time.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 2:41 pm

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 2:40 pm New ob from CVG! 90/81!!

Wow we tied the dew point record

And our first 90 of the season for our contest.

Thanks, Les!! There's now a 7000 J/kg SBCAPE area just SW of the Cincy area. Wow! DCAPE still 1100-1200 with Supercell Composite of 8. LIs are off the charts in the -10 to -11 range. Storms in Indiana also have a tremendous amount of lightning so if we can get these in here we should see the same.

As Les stated, MCS #2 for later tonight should only affect far northern posters (may clip Dayton) but thinking more of a Columbus on north threat if anything

WOW... SB CAPE values of 6000 now N of the River for Cincy. 6500 for NKY and how about 7000 for LOU! CAPE values... these are about as high as they can get folks for this region. My goodness this is a ticking time bomb should those storms begin to head SE which in time they will.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 2:48 pm WOW... SB CAPE values of 6000 now N of the River for Cincy. 6500 for NKY and how about 7000 for LOU! CAPE values... these are about as high as they can get folks for this region. My goodness this is a ticking time bomb should those storms begin to head SE which in time they will.

Yeah this is about as charged an atmosphere as it gets here.

Storms are in Indy and heading down I-74. So much fuel and this could be very interesting after 5pm

Seeing some pressure falls on the SPC Meso page out in ILL which is probably the energy that has helped to ignite those storms in Indiana. I checked the Microburst comp index and anything over a 9 is concerning. We're at 11.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 2:51 pm Storms are in Indy and heading down I-74. So much fuel and this could be very interesting after 5pm

That is the track some of the guidance was showing. More so yesterday and the day before versus today but the threat was always there.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 2:53 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 2:51 pm Storms are in Indy and heading down I-74. So much fuel and this could be very interesting after 5pm

That is the track some of the guidance was showing. More so yesterday and the day before versus today but the threat was always there.

Yeah not sure what happened with the guidance today - the earlier runs of the HRRR seemed to have this played out quite well. Then it just took a nap I guess.

Not saying it will happen - but the 12z HRRR with MCS #2 for tonight had it forming near Green Bay WI, then plowing all the way down to the Outer Banks of NC affecting Detroit, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Washington DC and maybe even Norfolk. Would be quite the derecho if this plays out.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 2:57 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 2:53 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 2:51 pm Storms are in Indy and heading down I-74. So much fuel and this could be very interesting after 5pm

That is the track some of the guidance was showing. More so yesterday and the day before versus today but the threat was always there.

Yeah not sure what happened with the guidance today - the earlier runs of the HRRR seemed to have this played out quite well. Then it just took a nap I guess.

The NAM was no where to be found either. Only model that kept the chance in there was the WRF that Tim mentioned a couple of times.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 2:51 pm Storms are in Indy and heading down I-74. So much fuel and this could be very interesting after 5pm

Are they though? they look to me to be moving almost due east, even a bit ENE? I'm not a fan of Steve "the Chin" R., but I do like to WCPO radar on their website. If you drag the timer circle on the radar back and forth, you can clearly see it's not moving much south at all...