Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:22 am
NAM looks much better for north of 71
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Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
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Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:23 am
12z NAM def colder....changes to snow at MGY between 9z-12z THU
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:24 am
Also looks a bit slower with wave two which may allow more arctic air to flow in.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:27 am
Still holding on to sleet/ice along 71 through late afternoon
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:27 am
Yeah def on the snow sleet fence here in my hood.....as always LOL
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:29 am
NAM not budging much from previos runs , sleet /freezing rain galore
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:29 am
NAM continuing the sleet and frz rain fest for most of AV country though. The cold undercuts the surface like the other models but not over our heads like the GFS does. Do not yet know which model is handling thermals better. That might come down to a nowcast honestly.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:32 am
850s at 4pm
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:33 am
I thing that strong Arctic High in the northern plains will nudge this cold front a little more south with today's and early tomorrow's runs. Then "nowcasting" will be a big tool beginning when the rain moves in tomorrow morning to see where the cold front is actually moving through observations. The waves moving NE along the front will be the key as to bumping it a tad NW or not. But I've seen this setup before and more snow may be the way to go as long as the second wave doesn't get too strong. NO ICE PLEASE!
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:33 am
1 to 1.25" of QPF with temps in the mid 20s at CVG on Thurs... looking very icy, not good.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:35 am
Dang , held on to sleet /FZ nearly the whole time south of 71
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:35 am
Then we get a bunch of sleet with temps in the low 20s Thurs evening at CVG.. great! 
This is going to be so tough to deal with to clear your own driveway, cars, etc.
This is going to be so tough to deal with to clear your own driveway, cars, etc.Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:37 am
Current takeways...
Colder and south trends are real
Plenty of moisture
Differences in the handling of the thermal profile. Model camps either have a warm nose aloft or the cold is much faster in cooling the entire column and more snow.
That's where my mind is currently.
Colder and south trends are real
Plenty of moisture
Differences in the handling of the thermal profile. Model camps either have a warm nose aloft or the cold is much faster in cooling the entire column and more snow.
That's where my mind is currently.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:37 am
Actually a warm layer that hangs on close to Dayton.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:38 am
A 50 miles shift on the cold and we are in business!
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:40 am
The I-70 snow wall is real...at least in Ohio. LOL
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:41 am
NAM ICE: So with that map in mind, big ole sleet fest for CVG. I keep feeling Feb of 2021 reappearing again.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:42 am
Les,
How good is the NAM with thermals compared to the GFS?
How good is the NAM with thermals compared to the GFS?
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:42 am
This is the farthest south the NAM has been with the snowfield. The trend is still our friend, in my opinion.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:43 am
12Z NAM Text data
Code: Select all
CVG
THU 1A 03-FEB 0.0 3.4 1021 94 97 0.26 562 545
THU 7A 03-FEB -3.2 1.6 1026 86 96 0.10 563 543
THU 1P 03-FEB -3.0 4.0 1023 85 97 0.12 564 546
THU 7P 03-FEB -5.5 0.2 1019 89 99 0.89 564 550
FRI 1A 04-FEB -6.2 -1.2 1021 85 98 0.46 560 544
FRI 7A 04-FEB -7.6 -4.1 1024 83 98 0.04 557 538
HAO
THU 1A 03-FEB -0.9 2.7 1022 89 98 0.24 561 544
THU 7A 03-FEB -3.8 -0.2 1027 86 98 0.09 562 541
THU 1P 03-FEB -3.8 0.2 1025 84 97 0.11 563 544
THU 7P 03-FEB -6.3 0.0 1020 88 99 0.89 564 549
FRI 1A 04-FEB -6.9 -2.8 1021 85 98 0.50 560 543
FRI 7A 04-FEB -8.2 -4.8 1024 84 98 0.03 556 537
MGY
THU 1A 03-FEB -2.0 2.3 1022 88 98 0.28 561 543
THU 7A 03-FEB -4.3 -1.0 1027 86 98 0.12 561 540
THU 1P 03-FEB -4.0 -1.0 1025 84 96 0.12 563 543
THU 7P 03-FEB -6.6 -0.4 1021 88 98 0.78 563 547
FRI 1A 04-FEB -7.5 -3.2 1021 85 98 0.53 559 543
FRI 7A 04-FEB -8.9 -5.0 1024 85 98 0.03 556 537
DAY
THU 1A 03-FEB -3.0 1.0 1023 88 97 0.27 560 542
THU 7A 03-FEB -5.1 -2.7 1028 87 99 0.15 561 539
THU 1P 03-FEB -5.1 -3.0 1026 86 96 0.14 562 542
THU 7P 03-FEB -7.2 -2.0 1022 89 98 0.65 562 545
FRI 1A 04-FEB -8.2 -5.0 1022 85 98 0.53 558 542
FRI 7A 04-FEB -9.6 -5.6 1024 85 97 0.02 555 536
CMH
THU 1A 03-FEB -1.2 2.3 1022 91 97 0.30 561 543
THU 7A 03-FEB -4.3 -1.0 1027 86 98 0.22 562 540
THU 1P 03-FEB -4.2 -1.6 1027 86 97 0.08 562 542
THU 7P 03-FEB -5.1 -0.6 1022 89 98 0.64 563 546
FRI 1A 04-FEB -7.5 -0.9 1020 86 98 0.66 560 545
FRI 7A 04-FEB -8.7 -3.9 1022 86 98 0.07 556 539
FRI 1P 04-FEB -7.3 -7.1 1025 85 92 0.01 551 531
FGX
THU 7A 03-FEB -1.1 5.3 1024 92 85 0.30 565 547
THU 1P 03-FEB -1.6 6.2 1022 89 86 0.16 567 550
THU 7P 03-FEB -2.5 6.5 1017 92 99 0.53 567 554
FRI 1A 04-FEB -3.2 6.3 1017 90 92 0.93 564 551
FRI 7A 04-FEB -6.4 -0.7 1022 87 68 0.06 560 543
FRI 1P 04-FEB -5.9 -6.0 1026 84 97 0.01 556 536
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:44 am
I agree on this feels like Feb 2021
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:50 am
It depends on the storm and the set up. Last Feb it was correct in showing the sleet fest where the GFS was wrong in keeping us snowy. The NAM can be wrong or it can be right this time. We just don't yet know. I would keep both solutions in mind for the moment.mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:42 am Les,
How good is the NAM with thermals compared to the GFS?
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:59 am
3KM NAM by Thurs evening is colder then the regular NAM. The snow / ice line is a couple rows of counties further to the south. It has I-70 Crew snowing where the regular NAM was still sleeting.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 10:02 am
Observations here from Grandpa Wooly at the woodpile. The squirrels are working fast and furious in pairs, the geese are in the corn, and the deer are huddled up in big herds and eating everything in sight. Grandpa Woolies witching sticks are rattling on their own and that is a troubling sign of a lot going on. Grandma Wooly is gathering the grub for a good stay put time. The sky had good hints of red which is a sign all in its own. Now the moles were super active before the last ground freeze which means the next big storm could be an overachiever . . . they sure were! Now it could be more rain, more snow, more sleet or more ice . . .this one could over achieve for some. Grandpa Wooly's advice on this one is to get your woodpile covered early.
Re: Kitchen Sink Storm Feb 2-4, 2022
Posted: Tue Feb 01, 2022 10:10 am
RGEM is still not budging with the warmer outcome. CVG does not changeover until Thurs morning. At 8am, we are still raining at CVG and so is the Metro. N burbs on north bound as well as I-70 Crew are sleeting / frz rain. CVG does not change over until late morning or midday.