Absolute Vorticity

Euro / UKIE look like a good middle ground for the track and are in good agreement. I'll roll with it. An inch or so of rain likely with this system. No severe wx issues or snow issues either.

Nice image from BamWx for this week's storm.

I like a track close to us attm, seems to be the more likely outcome and a lot of the models have trended towards that low track. See Doug's image from Bam Wx.

12Z EPS Snowfall mean for this next system - Well north of the Operational Euro.

Good Afternoon and a chilly but sunny day. Concerning the system for mid-week and a guess besides some decent rain will be the winds. These winds look to be quite gusty but also this is helping the system to be rather progressive. The CMC which really has not changed much in terms of path though at the start a little northwest only to go back to the southeast. What the CMC has done though is with the thermals and keeps it warmer much longer. Tell you the truth even folks well west of us will get rain before it turns to snow and I have noticed over the past several days that snow totals have come down but not so much preicp totals and this just tells me quite a bit a mild air working into this system. Can we still see snow from this system and of course the answer is yes but chances of seeing anything more than 1/2 or so is going to be hard to get. We get colder Friday but bounce back to normal on Saturday and above normal Sunday through Tuesday when another round of rain and yes maybe snow at the end hits the area. So Les like you mentioned many many days ago we are just going to be going back and forth through the end of February. What happens in March is still a wild card though I believe by the end of the month we are in full out spring and still expecting a wet and mild spring but does the early on spring rains decide to dry up sometime in June. Always a worry because we understand many times a dry June can lead into a hot summer.

Good afternoon Tim... I expect one more decent shot of cold air in the late Feb to early March time frame hopefully giving us one more nice shot at wintry weather before we can call it a season. I expect this week's system to track close to us for hvy rain ending as mood flakes. Then sometime in the Feb 25-27th time frame could bring in another heavy rain maker. Then we turn cold... wintry system potential... then by that time post March 10th, we should be in MJO Phase 4 to start up the change to spring process. As of 2/12, we are weak on the boarder of phases 2/3 per the Aussies.

Had a very nice Valentine's lunch with my folks at Red Lobster in Piqua, OH.

Currently 21 here in G'ville.

The snow falling last night was pretty!

That said, I'm now ready for Spring which means we will get 2 snowstorms in March.

MJSun wrote: ↑Mon Feb 14, 2022 4:34 pm The snow falling last night was pretty!

That said, I'm now ready for Spring which means we will get 2 snowstorms in March.

I'm ready for Spring and baseball, too, Mollie!

Hope the MLB lockout gets resolved soon.

18Z GFS is still north with the low track. From about STL to Toledo.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 14, 2022 5:09 pm 18Z GFS is still north with the low track. From about STL to Toledo.

Gfs has not budged and no doubt the best model this season. Next week no doubt looks like a spring storm with severe weather. Sure we are over a week away but that one has severe weather written all over imo. Really nice warm up but more dry air and cold air involved with the system so a very heavy snow for someone in the northern plains/great lakes area and severe weather for us .

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Feb 14, 2022 5:48 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 14, 2022 5:09 pm 18Z GFS is still north with the low track. From about STL to Toledo.

Gfs has not budged and no doubt the best model this season. Next week no doubt looks like a spring storm with severe weather. Sure we are over a week away but that one has severe weather written all over imo. Really nice warm up but more dry air and cold air involved with the system so a very heavy snow for someone in the northern plains/great lakes area and severe weather for us .

That would make sense Tim. Get a severe wx chance then a week to ten days later snow. That would put us into early March by then which times it well with the last cold shot I have been talking about.

No changes overnight or for quite some time for that matter , GFS has lead the way with EU following closer each run. Still 1-2" qpf and of course the winds will be an issue especially wednesday/thursday, which Trev mentioned several days back. Will be quite the snowstorm for plains/midwest , possible blizzard conditions, they can use any kind of qpf in the southern plains as it has been a dry winter, so good for them

Good morning! To add... the SPC also has a marginal risk out for severe wx on Thurs for everyone S of the Metro area. Most of LOU's CWA is included with a slight risk for Paducah. A couple of 60s coming also. Wed and probably will start the day in the 60-s on Thurs before falling once the front passes. A cold Fri then a wonderful weekend in store! Sunny and 40s Sat and the 50s Sun! We should get another 60 or two in next week with more rain by the 22nd. May have a multiday rain event by the middle of next week should a front stall out across the area. We shall see! Then we get cold after that for a bit as I've been saying.

The next 10 days temps should average above normal, but the GEFs put an end to that with a strong -EPO developing at months end. If the MJO stays in 3 , that scenario has a chance and cut short the above normal temps . 6z GFS op even has a JB hype worthy post of a 1055 high entering the the US at the end of the month. As we always say , we shall see

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Feb 15, 2022 6:44 am The next 10 days temps should average above normal, but the GEFs put an end to that with a strong -EPO developing at months end. If the MJO stays in 3 , that scenario has a chance and cut short the above normal temps . 6z GFS op even has a JB hype worthy post of a 1055 high entering the the US at the end of the month. As we always say , we shall see

Yeah, I mean I'm not trying to get all crazy here or anything but my call has been for the MJO to move slower then expected. And then we get that last cold blast early on in March, with one last snow chance then it's Spring time since we'll be in Phase 4 by then.

Bgoney, no doubt some warm days involved the last 2 weeks of Feb. Expect milder temps the first 7 days and then some colder air towards the end of the month. Early March does look colder than normal and the last hurrah to winter and I believe once it flips later in March a milder than normal spring ahead. We are having the hangover effect of La Nina as western and central Canada have very deep snow packs even for them and cold air is going to takes its time moving out of those areas. That is one reason you can get a 1055 high pressure though heading towards March those kind of highs tend to lose strength much faster than mid-winter. Severe weather this spring and it seems met's always predict a higher than normal severe season and much of the time it comes up short especially in the tornado area. The pattern looks ripe in the spring but just because the pattern may be correct does not mean we get a higher than average severe outbreak. I am more concerned of a wet spring but a sudden cutoff in early June that leads to a dry and that usually means hot summer.

As of 2/13 per the Aussies, we are barely but finally into Phase 3 now. We'll see how long it takes to roam through this particular phase.

Les, a few things that stood out this winter has been the slower mjo progression and that started really in November and still seems that trend has not changed. The southeast ridge has been a hit or miss starting in November. November the ridge was well south and east of the mainland USA and then in December it came back in full force until early January only to head south and east again. We are seeing it pokes its head up again but this is more normal during mid-Feb and will go back and forth quite often until middle of March when it usually grabs hold of the southeast. The gfs has done better overall than the Euro this season and not sure if that model just does better in a La Nina pattern. Though I know the USA really has overall had a winter that has fallen short in terms of snow except the southeast. Europe has been very mild with very little snowfall. Eastern Asia on the other hand cold and snowy along with much of Canada and Alaska. So mother nature will continue to balance everything out but she has such a tough job and one that pays very low.

The Ensembles (GEFS / EPS) are def showing the return of the -EPO ridge once we end Feb and begin March with a weak SE ridge over FL and just off the East Coast. That could be a nice set up for us for one last wintry shot. That's all I am hopeful for and that's pretty much what I am going to be watching for snow lovers going forward. In the mean time, a lot of rain and wind coming up on Thurs and then again towards the middle of next week.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Feb 15, 2022 5:31 am No changes overnight or for quite some time for that matter , GFS has lead the way with EU following closer each run. Still 1-2" qpf and of course the winds will be an issue especially wednesday/thursday, which Trev mentioned several days back. Will be quite the snowstorm for plains/midwest , possible blizzard conditions, they can use any kind of qpf in the southern plains as it has been a dry winter, so good for them

Definitely looks like at least advisory criteria. Any heavier showers or storms could of course being down even higher winds. With the saturated grounds, spotty power outages would seem like a good bet.

I could see some 40+ mph gusts without t-storms, just synoptic winds. 50-60 mph if you can get those very high 850 MB winds to mix down to the surface as Trev has been mentioning. It's going to get breezy tomorrow and down right windy on Thursday.

StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2022/02/15/stormt ... pdate-215/

Trevor wrote: ↑Tue Feb 15, 2022 7:40 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Feb 15, 2022 5:31 am No changes overnight or for quite some time for that matter , GFS has lead the way with EU following closer each run. Still 1-2" qpf and of course the winds will be an issue especially wednesday/thursday, which Trev mentioned several days back. Will be quite the snowstorm for plains/midwest , possible blizzard conditions, they can use any kind of qpf in the southern plains as it has been a dry winter, so good for them

Definitely looks like at least advisory criteria. Any heavier showers or storms could of course being down even higher winds. With the saturated grounds, spotty power outages would seem like a good bet.

Trev has been on the wind issue for days and its an interesting set up. Many times you get some strong winds but they tend to last only a few hours with the higher winds. This may be a 24-36 hour period with constant winds over 20 mph plus some higher gust over 40 easily. This can tumble down some trees especially this time of year.

What is interesting about this system is the NWS offices in the central plains have not issued any winter related advisories and the system gets going later on Wednesday. Though the gfs has been showing the same track for days my guess there are some issues the folks are trying to figure out. First the Euro though it came a little further north is still several miles south of the gfs. Second there looks to be quite a bit of dry air trying to enter the system from the northwest and does this eat up some of the precip after it changes to snow. Sure they will issue something later today but rather late especially for places that have not seen much in the way of winter weather this season.