January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion

[tron777]

FWIW, 18Z GFS is coming in with 0.20" of QPF now for CVG. We'll see...

[BookNerdCarp]

Hey Matt, Maybe these heavier returns headed your way can get you started with some snow




hv.PNG

Just started snowing....moderate big flakes!

[tron777]

This includes tomorrow. Also expecting snow showers then too.

GFS.png

[mikeyp]

Nice 30dbz over me now in white oak

[tron777]

18Z GFS

Code: Select all

CMH

MON 00Z 17-JAN  -1.6    -0.9    1005      96      97    0.13     544     540    
MON 06Z 17-JAN  -2.5    -5.3     997      96      99    0.33     533     535    
MON 12Z 17-JAN  -5.5    -8.9    1000      82      92    0.09     527     527    
MON 18Z 17-JAN  -1.7   -10.5    1004      86      64    0.00     529     526    
TUE 00Z 18-JAN  -2.2   -10.0    1010      87      35    0.01     536     528    

FGX

MON 00Z 17-JAN  -0.3    -1.5    1003      98      96    0.41     542     540    
MON 06Z 17-JAN  -1.7    -4.8     999      97      98    0.19     534     535    
MON 12Z 17-JAN  -4.9    -9.4    1005      84      97    0.01     528     525    
MON 18Z 17-JAN  -1.6   -10.6    1008      89      60    0.02     532     525    
TUE 00Z 18-JAN  -3.8    -8.2    1014      88      29    0.01     541     530

[tron777]

18Z RGEM coming in juicer this afternoon:

RGEM.png

[BookNerdCarp]

After further review it's still a mix of snow, ice pellets, and sleet. Not all snow.

[tron777]

Primary low continues to die with a 998 MB low beginning to take over now in North Carolina.

[BookNerdCarp]

Ice

[tron777]

700 MB frontogenic forcing developing now over the Eastern sections of our coverage area. Should see snow and rates pick up as time wears on. Dynamic cooling will change the sleet / graupel over to snow.

7fnt_sf.gif

[Spacejunk]

Super light snow in Oxford, sure wish the due would catch up. 31/24

[Ddmeyer004]

Primary low continues to die with a 998 MB low beginning to take over now in North Carolina.

Les looks like that dry slot is closing up….could get fun here soon

[tron777]

Primary low continues to die with a 998 MB low beginning to take over now in North Carolina.

Les looks like that dry slot is closing up….could get fun here soon

Yep. Been watching it! Should see snow here in the next 30-45 mins.

[Drottlawn]

Snowing good in Hamilton

[cloudy72]

Sleet and snow mix here

[BookNerdCarp]

Turning to heavy snow here. Bad side is a layer of ice underneath it.

[tpweather]

Like Les mentioned the low is now in western NC. As the low continues north over the next 6 hours this will give us the best shot for snow until snow showers on Monday. Again the snows will be in a northeast to southwest flow and folks in southeast Ohio and northeast Kentucky should do well plus the snow will last longer in those areas. So far the storm itself has been a rather slow mover and part of that is the low in the upper gulf states did not want to give up and since this was not a coastal low the transfer is different.

The good thing is next weekend could bring another system to the eastern 1/3 of the country. Way too early and there looks to be several pieces of energy involved again but how do they interact. Even before then we should have another cold front arrive probably later Wednesday or Thursday so cold air should not be the problem next weekend.

[tron777]

I can report first flakes now!

[young pup]

Got ice on walks and parking lots here. It's going to be a long night.

[Pete1]

I can report first flakes now!

Seeing the first flakes too, Les. Finally!!! Where are to in Burlington, Les. I am about 5 minutes away from the courthouse

[Pete1]

I can report first flakes now!

Seeing the first flakes too, Les. Finally!!! Where are you in Burlington, Les. I am about 5 minutes away from the courthouse

[tron777]

I can report first flakes now!

Seeing the first flakes too, Les. Finally!!! Where are to in Burlington, Les. I am about 5 minutes away from the courthouse

Willowbend Subdivision off of Camp Ernst. Oh, I forgot to report that we had a little sleet earlier. A little glaze on the cars and when you walk up the driveway it is crunchy. Getting some snow on top of it will make things interesting lol

[Bgoney]

Correlation coefficient radar , areas in yellow and green are a mix and continue to shrink . All other areas with precip should be snow

sleet.PNG

[Pete1]

I can report first flakes now!

Seeing the first flakes too, Les. Finally!!! Where are to in Burlington, Les. I am about 5 minutes away from the courthouse

Willowbend Subdivision off of Camp Ernst. Oh, I forgot to report that we had a little sleet earlier. A little glaze on the cars and when you walk up the driveway it is crunchy. Getting some snow on top of it will make things interesting lol

Almost neighbors... lol... I’m in Hanover Park

[Bgoney]

Per the radar shot above , I still have a moderate rain/mix here