Absolute Vorticity

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jan 03, 2022 2:48 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 03, 2022 2:17 pm I was able to peek at the 12Z EPS individual members today and about 50% of them show accumulating snow. Some are a swing and a miss too of course. A few hammer us as well.



EPS1.png


EPS2.png

Les I love this post. I wish there was a way to see which ensemble member has done the best over the years plus which one is the best with a certain pattern. Amazing how a model itself can have such a different outcome less alone different model completely.

With the EPS - the Euro model is re-ran 51 different times and those are the outcomes you get. GEFS only does it with about half or 20 some members I believe. I can see the GEFS members anytime you want them, but EPS members are pay. Every so often, someone leaks it online lol

Not much change from the boys:

The temperatures set the stage for the cold air being in place for
the next system, slated for the afternoon and early evening hours of
Thursday. Deterministic European and Canadian models are coming in
further south, while the GFS remains primarily dry over the CWA. NAM
splits the two scenarios nicely in the last 6 hours of the forecast.
Given the earlier messaging and potential of a 3-4" event southeast
of the I-71 corridor, have shifted the pops down slightly from
previous forecast. This limits snow potential in the southeast to a
more manageable 1.5-2.5" on what is still day 4 of the forecast.
Ensembles remain split between the snow/no snow potential and the
latest forecast does not do much to change these possibilities. With
the NAM coming in wetter, this at least helps the thought processes
that say a no snow event is an outlier, which gives the forecast a
good continuity with previous versions.

Expecting the snow on Thursday, this leads to a nice cold snap
through Saturday morning with highs in the 20s Thurs and lower 20s
Fri, and overnight lows in the low teens to single digits by Fri and
Sat morning. Saturday will see a return to southerly flow and a warm
up into the upper 30s to low 40s. This warm up may be delayed
slightly in the east where lighter winds over a snow pack do not
transport the warmer air quite as nicely versus the remainder of the
forecast area.

18Z NAM QPF amounts:

CVG - 0.16"
HAO - 0.13"
MGY - 0.09"
DAY - 0.06"
CMH - 0.07"
FGX - 0.08"

Happy New Year all! Been gone for a while. Nice to see winter has decided to show up, finally. Best to all. Dave

Oh wow, I didn't know ILN actually threw out numbers earlier. Quite a change from their protocol. The qpf issues we talked about earlier are showing up now in modeling.

18z GFS is more of the same. It will not grasp what other models have. It's either going to score or flop.

Nice updates today. Been working on my brothers plow. Finally gave up, baby it's cold out there, and am going to take it in to a shop in the morning. Probably all for nothing if the gfs ends up winning this battle.

Spacejunk wrote: ↑Mon Jan 03, 2022 4:10 pm Happy New Year all! Been gone for a while. Nice to see winter has decided to show up, finally. Best to all. Dave

Nice to see you posting again Dave! Hopefully a better outcome this January vs last.

18Z RGEM Total snowfall:

I'm hoping the heavier amounts stay south of I-70 for Thurs and since I take the trash cart to the curb late Thurs afternoon or evening.

Also since Covid is still kicking my butt.

Currently 28 here in G'ville.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Mon Jan 03, 2022 5:52 pm I'm hoping the heavier amounts stay south of I-70 for Thurs and since I take the trash cart to the curb late Thurs afternoon or evening.

Also since Covid is still kicking my butt.

Currently 28 here in G'ville.

Eric,take care of yourself. Hope you are towards the end of covid.

Pretty busy across the Eastern Pacific. Our storm is still up into the Gulf of Alaska and will be dropping SE and moving into the Pacific NW in the next 24 to 30 hours. Nice moisture plume too over the Eastern Pacific as you can see here.


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/e ... t8O2T_VIjQ

Dewpoints will be very low , near single digits Thursday afternoon with a North wind , so I would expect it to take a few hours to saturate the atmosphere

18z Euro is in tonight. QPF is below.

CVG - 0.16" 12Z had 0.12"
FGX - 0.31" - There you go Matt!
N Cincy burbs and I-70 Crew either side of 0.10"

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 03, 2022 7:57 pm 18z Euro is in tonight. QPF is below.

CVG - 0.16" 12Z had 0.12"
FGX - 0.31" - There you go Matt!
N Cincy burbs and I-70 Crew either side of 0.10"

So hard to get excited. Old age and experience has made me a skeptic,. LOL

hearing the GFS just shifted west several hundred miles on its latest run tonight, more in line with the GEM and EURO

Models have done as expected and meeting in the middle, atm. Can't argue with the early call yesterday of 1-3 (NW-SE) . With track /strength of low still TBD. Concerns for me are questionable qpf amounts and dry air aloft in the beginning to eat some of qpf

06z GFS is no longer popping the Low off the coast. It moved many hundreds of miles. I’m not saying it’s going to be a whopper, but accumulating snow is looking more likely.

0z GFS looks similar to the 6z. Good news from the overnight.

Looking like a possible 2 to 4 inch event for my hood.

0z GFS Snowfall (Kuchera)
6z GFS Snowfall (Kuchera)
I’d say it’s definitely coming in line with other models. 1.3 then 1.6” on the 6z. Fits closer to other models. Now just time to iron out the fine details.

It looks like the GFS is trying to tap the GoM for moisture. There is a crazy difference between the moisture in the 0z and the 6z. Makes it look like a bigger event.

Euro is rolling in now.

Good morning folks! Nice to see the GFS finally getting a clue. Anyone see the 6Z NAM? We got NAM'ed. Euro slid back south. CMC is a little south for the good snows as well. UKIE is furthest south... no one gets anything. Basically I am with Tim and Bgoney. 1-3" is a fine call until we can get past the model noise hopefully by tomorrow. Energy should be onshore this evening and we'll see what the energy looks like as it rounds the base of the trough Wed / Wed night.

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 6:53 am Looking like a possible 2 to 4 inch event for my hood.

I agree Matt. SE Crew has the best shot at getting warning criteria snows out of this. Finally, no precip type issues to worry about for you lol

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 04, 2022 6:57 am Good morning folks! Nice to see the GFS finally getting a clue. Anyone see the 6Z NAM? We got NAM'ed. Euro slid back south. CMC is a little south for the good snows as well. UKIE is furthest south... no one gets anything. Basically I am with Tim and Bgoney. 1-3" is a fine call until we can get past the model noise hopefully by tomorrow. Energy should be onshore this evening and we'll see what the energy looks like as it rounds the base of the trough Wed / Wed night.

That’s like a snow weenie run. I don’t even want to post it…