Absolute Vorticity

I am surprised no one has posted about this yet so I will. Check this out from spaceweather.com:

ARE WE ABOUT TO EXPERIENCE A NEW CARRINGTON EVENT? No. AR3664 is indeed a 'Carrington-class' sunspot, but the CMEs it hurled toward Earth over the past few days are not as potent as the monster CME of Sept. 1, 1859. NOAA says we might experience a severe geomagnetic storm when the CMEs arrive this weekend. If geomagnetic storms were hurricanes, 'severe' would be category 4. The Carrington Event was category 5 or greater. So this is no Carrington Event. Even so, category 4 is pretty intense--if it happens. Stay tuned for some great auroras! Aurora alerts: SMS Text

Basically, we have a good chance to see some Auroras this weekend if we can get clear skies and also if you're away from the city lights. Tonight maybe questionable for viewing as we should start out clear but get increasing clouds ahead of tomorrow's cold front. Sat. night looks much better for viewing as we should have clear skies all night long. Please post a pic if any of you do happen to witness the Aurora's. I have too many lights around me unfortunately.

Friday night the sky turned awesome around 10 pm. Naked eye aurora was completely overhead and even south. While not as bright as the pictures, there were a few pulses that lightened the landscape considerably. Saturday night didn’t yield much but a faint aurora that appeared sporadically on the horizon. The ISS did fly across the sky which is always cool!

Gorgeous pics, Christian! Thank you sir for sharing those with us. Truly spectacular!

I also captured the lights it was absolutely the neatest thing ever

Awesome pics, Pepper! Thanks for sharing those with us! Love those purples!!!

The average number of sunspots reached 215.5 in August, according to the Solar Influences Data Analysis Center at the Royal Observatory in Belgium. It’s the highest number since Sept.-Dec. 2001, according to SpaceWeather.com. July's total was 196.5. Last month, NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center issued a preliminary statement that solar activity is at its highest since March 2001.

Solar Cycle 25 has out performed expectations for sure and it's a big reason why the Northern Lights have been seen much further to the south then usual. No signs of it slowing down anytime soon and in fact, I think it is still intensifying due to the high amount of cosmic rays hitting the Earth.

Going back as far as 2006 Space weather's site we had 268 spotless days in 2008 and 281 spotless days 2019. From what I read we were going into a minimum back in the early 2000's but not as weak as the Dalton Min of late 1700's/early 1800's or the Maunder Min of the 1600's. According to what I read another Grand Min is coming within the next 50 years!

Current as of today...

This could cause a few problems

Solar Cycle 25 has been off the charts for sun spot activity and geomagnetic storms! No model or scientist predicted this at all.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 03, 2024 5:34 pm Solar Cycle 25 has been off the charts for sun spot activity and geomagnetic storms! No model or scientist predicted this at all.

It’s still going crazy, another CME today and activity is expected to continue as this particular active area rotates more directly to earth…. Uh oh.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Nov 10, 2024 10:50 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 03, 2024 5:34 pm Solar Cycle 25 has been off the charts for sun spot activity and geomagnetic storms! No model or scientist predicted this at all.

It’s still going crazy, another CME today and activity is expected to continue as this particular active area rotates more directly to earth…. Uh oh.

I'm wondering if that will be bad news for winter when combined with a very westerly QBO? At least it's a Nina instead of a Nino with that combination.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 10, 2024 10:56 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Nov 10, 2024 10:50 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 03, 2024 5:34 pm Solar Cycle 25 has been off the charts for sun spot activity and geomagnetic storms! No model or scientist predicted this at all.

It’s still going crazy, another CME today and activity is expected to continue as this particular active area rotates more directly to earth…. Uh oh.

I'm wondering if that will be bad news for winter when combined with a very westerly QBO? At least it's a Nina instead of a Nino with that combination.

Yea I’m sure they’ll be some speculation on this in the coming weeks/months . Seems like in the past what looked like things going in our favor were then supposedly ruined by sun activity

Love this topic but I am so lost and not sure how this helps/hurts when it comes to actual temperature. I should study this more this winter but at this point you guys are the experts on this subject and hopefully I can grasp it somewhat before the winter is over.