Absolute Vorticity

From the data I keep seeing... as we approach mid October and beyond, the Western trough looks to get established and we'll have winter from Alaska down into the Rockies with ridging for the East. I foresee pieces of energy getting ejected from the Western US trough and perhaps some severe wx upcoming for the Plains. Too early to tell if we'll have any of that this far East, but it does bare watching for sure. Not always, but on occasion, we do get a second severe wx season in autumn and maybe this could be it. Again, depends on the placement of the trough. There is a chance we could be too far east if the trough is too far over the West.

3pm update for precip.

CVG - 0.59"
My Hood - 0.67"
Boone Co Mesonet - 0.81"

Storms / rain moving towards the tristate... saw 3 secs of sun earlier lol

theextremeone wrote: ↑Sun Oct 03, 2021 4:16 pm Storms / rain moving towards the tristate... saw 3 secs of sun earlier lol

I'm seeing a little sun right now down here. Can we get enough instability for a few isolated strong storms this afternoon? To our west 1500-2000 J/kg of CAPE is there ahead of the front so we'll see what happens over the next few hours. No shear so that is why I am not impressed for severe storms.

theextremeone wrote: ↑Sun Oct 03, 2021 4:16 pm Storms / rain moving towards the tristate... saw 3 secs of sun earlier lol

Good to see you posting Jason

New total so far , 1.20"

1.60 total from Saturday through today.

Only thing to keep an eye on for the next hour or two is a line of scattered storms to the west. Otherwise, the wettest period should be behind us (only scattered chances) until Wed / Thurs when more widespread rain looks to return.

Storm total here a whopping 0.16” LOL

Didn't really receive anymore rain after I posted the totals from yesterday. The scattered storms never made it here from last evening. A few showers today, very isolated tomorrow. We ramp back up on Wed and Thurs, lingering chances Fri with a lovely weekend in store. Highs around 80 likely this weekend which may go into early next week ahead of another system down the road.

For the Wed - Fri period, I think another inch or so of rain could easily fall across the area. There will be screw zones as usual as some folks will see much less in the way of rain and others could get over that mark, up to 2" if repeated storms occur. So if you smooth it all out, an inch looks good to me. I think 80+ occurs this weekend into at least Tues of next week. Could be longer, just depends on the speed of the next system. The Western trough will start sending out pieces of energy beginning next week thru at least mid month if not a little bit longer then that. Too early to know if any strong or severe storms will get involved, or does that stay off to our west. We'll see! Also will need to see if we get any more tropical activity to muck things up. Do we get a system to develop in the Caribbean or Gulf? Can it merge with a frontal boundary to kick off a cooler pattern down the road? We'll just have to wait and see what happens as we progress thru Rocktober.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 04, 2021 7:21 am For the Wed - Fri period, I think another inch or so of rain could easily fall across the area. There will be screw zones as usual as some folks will see much less in the way of rain and others could get over that mark, up to 2" if repeated storms occur.

In my hood - I always expect the screw zone. Then when a surprising series of storms hits and over-achieves, I am excited. I always try to keep my expectations low.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 04, 2021 8:07 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 04, 2021 7:21 am For the Wed - Fri period, I think another inch or so of rain could easily fall across the area. There will be screw zones as usual as some folks will see much less in the way of rain and others could get over that mark, up to 2" if repeated storms occur.

In my hood - I always expect the screw zone. Then when a surprising series of storms hits and over-achieves, I am excited. I always try to keep my expectations low.

That is absolutely true Mike, esp with snow as we all know.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 03, 2021 9:51 pm Storm total here a whopping 0.16” LOL

169 - that’s the number of drops of rain in my yard this weekend

70 at my hood currently with mostly cloudy skies. A touch of sun is breaking thru. We'll see if a few more showers can get going later this afternoon.

Current temp at 67 which is my high so far.

snowbo wrote: ↑Mon Oct 04, 2021 11:15 am

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 03, 2021 9:51 pm Storm total here a whopping 0.16” LOL

169 - that’s the number of drops of rain in my yard this weekend

I probably had half that!

Looking ahead.... a weak front moves in per the new 12Z GFS around the late Mon into Mon night time frame. Not much rain or temp change with it, since the system is weak overall. A stronger one is due in towards the end of next week as a strong low lifts into Canada and we get the trailing cold front here with a line of convection. Timing is key of course for severe wx and it's too far out to get a good handle on that yet. I think the front stalls close by and a piece of energy in the STJ rides along it for another renewed chance of rain just after mid month. The pattern looks active so we're done with that week long dry and boring nonsense.

12Z Euro is singing a different tune today. After the current system moves out (Wed / Thurs), then we're dry thru Day 10 (Next Thurs) and the warmth comes back as well as in the 80s. Heights are back up to around 588-590 DM. We'll be torching for Rocktober standards if that is correct. This is a stark contrast to the more active GFS that I posted about earlier. Place your bets!

Northside along 275 appear to be the big winners today!

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Mon Oct 04, 2021 3:33 pm Northside along 275 appear to be the big winners today!

My Dome is holding today which is fine since I did halfway decent yesterday. I do hope that Wed / Thurs brings in more action esp for you guys that need it.

A dome day here as well - typical typicals, storm a couple miles to my north and another a couple miles to the south. LOL

76 at CVG today, 75 here. Should be a little warmer tomorrow area wide with much less in the way of showers / t-storms. Very little in fact. Then Wed afternoon and Thurs should be our next chance.

Made it to 75 here as well - currently 71 with the storms in the area. Hoping for a cell that popped to my west - come on man!