Absolute Vorticity

A few tornado's south of Greenville,Sc today with some damage. Looks to be a good 50-100 miles south so not seeing any kind of severe weather in the Greenville area at the moment but they did get some rain which really is needed for the first time in 2 years that I have been there.

74 degrees here... cloudy, a few peaks of sun and humid. Look for scattered shower's / storms on and off in waves thru Tuesday night. A possible lingering shower Wed morning then we're done until this weekend. Both days look like likely chances unfortunately for Mom. Temps in the 70s will cool into the low 60s with lows in the low 40s as time goes on. Might get back into the 70s by Mother's Day albeit wet.

0.30" so far at CVG today.

Organized Severe threat has gone down quite a bit for tonight and tomorrow for our area. Expect scattered showers and t-showers off and on ending late Tuesday. Plenty of dry time in between. Highest rain chances between 6am and noon tomorrow

HRRR looks pretty stormy for tomorrow morning, high-res NAM the complete opposite

21z HRRR holds serve re: tomorrow morning heavy rain/storms.

Any chance of big hail with the next system? Trying to decide if I need to move the little teardrop camper under cover. Thanks!!!

I agree with everyone... severe threat is low. Isolated is a good word to use. Cannot rule out wind and hail but heavy rain is the primary risk just as it was today. Best chance of severe is SE forecast area tomorrow.

My gauge picked up .70" from last night through this morning.

Currently 66 here in G'ville.

No changes here. Scattered showers a t-showers developing on schedule, now through noon, brief heavy rain possible. with organized severe stuff to our south. A break this afternoon before Scattered t-showrrs with the cold front late day

Radar looks good for an incoming wet morning as most have already posted about on here. Severe threat is also low, again as most folks have already commented on. No changes from me either. We'll dry out tomorrow and Thurs and probably even Fri too. Sometime on Sat, most of Mother's Day and really into next week is another wet period coming up. May is going to be a wet month... at least the first half, per long term guidance.

Just had a nice downpour here, dropped a few hundredths very quickly. Main rain shield is approaching from the SW.

Good Morning and I believe the forecasts made on this site have been great. How much rain do we get this morning before it moves away or tends to die out. Should get a break and wait for the cold front to add more rainfall. Love the foliage here compared to SC which is either gray or tan and just not a nice site imo. More rain this weekend as well.

Thanks Tim... long range looks very active / wet per GEFS and EPS and some OP runs too. Severe wx is always a challenge, but should be plenty wet for new crops to be planted shortly and lawns. Just hope it isn't too much. So far in the last few events, it's been perfect.

Darkening skies and some thunder as the next wave moves in...

Rain just started up again here now... looks to last for a while per radar.

StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/05/04/goode- ... ther-blog/

A nice heavy downpour here... that'll add it on in a hurry.

Looks like you folks down in Cincy are gonna get some awesome rainfall totals in the next few hours.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 8:02 am Thanks Tim... long range looks very active / wet per GEFS and EPS and some OP runs too. Severe wx is always a challenge, but should be plenty wet for new crops to be planted shortly and lawns. Just hope it isn't too much. So far in the last few events, it's been perfect.

Severe chances continue to look muted the next 10 days or so with a cooling pattern dominating. Strong pulse from MJO in phases one (3+SD) , strongest I've seen for quite some time, and headed for phase 2 ,is a good signal for our pattern to continue. Brief warm up between the cool shots or near normal temps.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 9:31 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 8:02 am Thanks Tim... long range looks very active / wet per GEFS and EPS and some OP runs too. Severe wx is always a challenge, but should be plenty wet for new crops to be planted shortly and lawns. Just hope it isn't too much. So far in the last few events, it's been perfect.

Severe chances continue to look muted the next 10 days or so with a cooling pattern dominating. Strong pulse from MJO in phases one (3+SD) , strongest I've seen for quite some time, and headed for phase 2 ,is a good signal for our pattern to continue. Brief warm up between the cool shots or near normal temps.

Sounds like a normal wet and rainy spring time pattern then. Severe wx is isolated ad heavy rain is the bigger issue. lots of 60s and 70s with an occasional 80 thrown in. Sounds like that should sum it up. Weekly rainfall totals for many will be in that 1-4" range depending on how t-storms set up. We're sure getting hammered here!

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 9:31 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 8:02 am Thanks Tim... long range looks very active / wet per GEFS and EPS and some OP runs too. Severe wx is always a challenge, but should be plenty wet for new crops to be planted shortly and lawns. Just hope it isn't too much. So far in the last few events, it's been perfect.

Severe chances continue to look muted the next 10 days or so with a cooling pattern dominating. Strong pulse from MJO in phases one (3+SD) , strongest I've seen for quite some time, and headed for phase 2 ,is a good signal for our pattern to continue. Brief warm up between the cool shots or near normal temps.

Love to see the strong pulse from the mjo in December.

CVG / Myself - Picked up a quick 3/4" in the last hour. A steady rain continues to fall.