Absolute Vorticity

LOU out with a winter storm watch Tues evening thru Wed evening for their CWA.

I changed the thread title to trim off Thursday at this time.

That 50/50 low I keep talking about is even stronger on this run. Still believe that is part of the equation and maybe I am wrong but lets see if the nam has the same outcome this run. Glad to see Louisville out with a winter storm watch. Again will not need tons of moisture to cause this storm to ramp up and a decent one over 4 inches

Paducah also with the winter storm watch and have 4-9 inches where Louisville just has a standard over 4 inches possible.

CB's early look at 4" probs:

The NAM is going to come in ever more amped I think... lol

This run will even get some of our I-70 Crew involved. Wow, this is looking good folks...

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 16, 2025 3:25 pm This run will even get some of our I-70 Crew involved. Wow, this is looking good folks...

I believe you are correct. So why is that 50/50 low important because not only slows down any system but also will fight with the strong high in Canada. You can see how in Canada just north of the lakes how its pushing back energy southwest. There are so many items to figure out and sometimes picking out the wrong piece can make you look foolish. That may happen with me this time but imo this is an important part of the forecast this week

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Feb 16, 2025 3:30 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 16, 2025 3:25 pm This run will even get some of our I-70 Crew involved. Wow, this is looking good folks...

I believe you are correct. So why is that 50/50 low important because not only slows down any system but also will fight with the strong high in Canada. You can see how in Canada just north of the lakes how its pushing back energy southwest. There are so many items to figure out and sometimes picking out the wrong piece can make you look foolish. That may happen with me this time but imo this is an important part of the forecast this week

NAM is also stronger with the S energy and better confluence over the NE. High is not as strong over S Canada so this thing can get a little more amp'ed up and not get squashed to death. You want the 50 / 50 low to slow things down but be far enough away to not shear it apart. A delicate balance.

Wow... pound town Wed evening! Gonna be a big run here!

Snow pulls out Wed afternoon so it's a quick hitter. Like a 12 to 16 hour event.

6-8" event for the metro and I-70 Crew... looks great!

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 16, 2025 3:38 pm 6-8" event for the metro and I-70 Crew... looks great!

I'm riding the NAM the entire way!

dce wrote: ↑Sun Feb 16, 2025 3:39 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 16, 2025 3:38 pm 6-8" event for the metro and I-70 Crew... looks great!

I'm riding the NAM the entire way!

Doug just wants to win the contest lol

The upper low partially phases, doesn't quite catch up but the damage is already done. The upper low has to phase in or you won't see double digits.

0.51" for QPF at CVG from the NAM, would love to see this come true. Is the NAM on drugs or correct? We'll have to wait and see!

Love seeing some of the mean snow totals in Missouri. Kansas City and St Louis both over a foot of snow. The higher totals before were probably about 50 miles further south.

Love seeing this!!!!

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 16, 2025 3:41 pm The upper low partially phases, doesn't quite catch up but the damage is already done. The upper low has to phase in or you won't see double digits.

The Euro and UkMet have shown that scenario over the last couple days at times. Maybe, just maybe, the NAM is on too something.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sun Feb 16, 2025 3:40 pm

dce wrote: ↑Sun Feb 16, 2025 3:39 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 16, 2025 3:38 pm 6-8" event for the metro and I-70 Crew... looks great!

I'm riding the NAM the entire way!

Doug just wants to win the contest lol

Well. I wasn't really thinking along this lines, but more snow is always better. Individual storms and for the season.

Last time we had an more than 1 or 2 days with a negative NAO was back in January and we know how that turned out. Just turned negative and will it last through late week. I believe so with the big low in eastern Canada and having a negative NAO is always a plus for us to get some decent snows.

18Z RGEM is still way south.

18Z ICON bumped north a tad but still part of the southern envelope.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 16, 2025 4:29 pm 18Z RGEM is still way south.

No surprise as that model is always too cold for the most part and especially with this kind of high showing in southern Canada. We know some model is going to bust badly a few days out and though the models should for the most part receive the same info its how that is weighted in the system is my guess the difference. We are going to get snow and that part I am 100p/c confident and 1-3 at worse. Way too early to go bigger until some of the other models start heading in higher snow totals.

The Happy Hour GooFuS is off and running!